NO BELLWEATHERS
Pundits will wonder whether the election results in California, Kentucky and Mississippi signal a Bush victory in 2004. Don't put too much stock in these local state races that had, in each case, more to do with local issues than national ones. Sure, Bush's campaigning in KY and MS may have helped, but he won those states in 2000 and should expect to win them again even if he is turned out of office. There may be minor lessons to be learned about what issues played best, and those lessons might be applicable to the 2004 elections, but as a bellweather for the election as a whole -- I don't think so.

Watch the economic indicators and Iraq. That will tell you more about how next year's election will go. And watch the Democrats. Their best chance at winning would be to nominate Dean, Edwards or Lieberman.