DEAN STILL IN THE LEAD
The latest CBS poll of nationwide Democratic voters showing Dean with a substantial lead over his nearest rival. Dean pulls 23% of Democratic support, while Lieberman and Clark trail at 10%. Of course, focusing on these nationwide numbers tells us little about how momentum can swing during the primary season. Lieberman will no longer be a viable second place after he gets plastered in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Clark needs to win South Carolina to have any chance of getting to March, and polls show him tight with John Edwards there, even though Edwards is at 2% in the nationwide poll, trailing such luminaries as Al "Tawana" Sharpton and John "Fuck, what about me?" Kerry.

But I still contend that John Edwards has the second best chance of claiming the nomination. If he wins South Carolina, then he becomes the alternative to Dean, but only if he stakes out some real differences between him and Dean. He needs to do more than just call for investigations about flu vaccines, but he should adopt the hawkish rhetoric of Joe Lieberman or Dick Gephardt (if he believes it). Lieberman actually made a 4 point move in the nationwide poll, probably because he has been most vocally critical to Dean's Iraq statements. If Edwards does go hawkish, he could sweep up the southern delegates and be viable in the west. If he doesn't, then Gephardt becomes the alternative, and he just won't beat Dean.