WHO'S NUMBER 2?
I've long maintained that the second most-likely Democratic nominee is John Edwards. It's not that he's electrifying or that his campaign is some model of organization, but the primary math works in his favor. After Dean extinguishes Gephardt in Iowa and Kerry and Lieberman in New Hampshire, the only possible alternative would appear as the winner in South Carolina. That winner would be the "electable" alternative to Dean and would have a chance in the midwest and the west.

That South Carolina "winner" was going to be Lieberman, then it was going to be Edwards, then Clark, then Edwards.

But what happens if Dean wins South Carolina on February 3? Then, even the second place finisher looks like a loser and Dean locks things up by March.

And that's what may be happening. A recent poll shows that SC voters, who previously preferred Lieberman, Edwards or Clark, now prefer Dean. In one poll, by 4% over co-number twos Al Sharpton and John Edwards. In another, by 1% over Clark and 6% over Sharpton/Edwards (who tend to poll evenly).

Sure, many SC voters are still undecided, but Edwards has spent more time in South Carolina than any other candidate, except Sharpton, and he's fading, while Dean is surging ahead. If Edwards wants to have an effect on this race, now would be the best time to pull out and endorse a challenger to Dean. If no one rallies support for an alternative, Dean becomes the nominee and doesn't win a single southern state in November. Clark would have a better chance in the south. If Clark becomes the alternative to Dean by winning South Carolina with the help of John Edwards selfless withdrawal, then the Democratic primary will become a two man race between Al Gore's Man and Bill Clinton's Man. And John Edwards becomes kingmaker and tops of the the veep list.

UPDATE: ToddtheBlog (HippyHillNews) notes that Edwards has bagged the coveted 2-out-of-4-members-of-Hootie-and-the-Blowfish endorsement.