ELECTION PROJECTION
Here's an interesting exercise -- an attempt to project the popular and electoral vote if the election were held today. Where? At Electionprojection.com, of course.

Currently, the projection is showing an electoral vote win for Bush, 370-168. Bush wins Gore states MI, PA, WI, MN, OR, WA (and others) under this scenario. The formula is here, and while I could quibble with some assumptions (that job approval polls should be weighted more heavily than the match-up poll), it is an interesting exercise and will be fun to watch. Will the methodology change as we decide who the actual Democrat nominee will be? I'm putting a link to Election Projection on the right so we can keep track.