IOWA IS OVER, NOW WHAT?
If the numbers hold up, Kerry wins the Hawkeye Cauci, Edwards second, then Dean and Gephardt. So, now what?

Well, don't write off Dean yet. This is a loss, a bad loss, a surprising last minute loss and it does mean Dean's sinking. But Dean's campaign has not only been a grassroots operation, but as the Dr. has admitted, he's bringing in new people. People who are new to politics don't mind voting, but the thought of spending two hours with a bunch of hard core politicos that they probably deride as dorks doesn't excite the Dean voter. But they may still go to the polls in New Hampshire.

With this win, Kerry's gotta win New Hampshire or it will be seen as a loss. Second place will look like a failure and a Dean win will make Iowa look like a fluke (Reagan in 80 and Bush in 88 lost Iowa, so did Dukakis in 88 and Clinton in 92).

Edwards gets the biggest boost out of this because Gephardt will quit the race before New Hampshire. The real question is whether Gephardt endorses Edwards. Regardless of his decision (he may stay neutral, but I don't see him endorsing Clark or Dean), I think a lot of his voters will break for Edwards.

So, Edwards gets second place -- coming from nowhere. That's a big victory for his campaign. He may not be the unDean, but he's now the unKerry. He does't have to win New Hampshire, and he doesn't have to show well. But if he beats Clark, then Clark's campaign is over, because Edwards will then win in South Carolina.

So, your guide to NH: Dean has to win, or its over. Kerry has to win to remain competitive, but he may survive with a close second. It's now either Dean or Kerry versus either Clark or Edwards. If Clark cannot beat Edwards in NH, he won't win in South Carolina. If Edwards or Clark beats either Dean or Kerry in NH, then whoever gets beat is out.

My prediction for NH? Right now, I'd say Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Lieberman. Not really a prediction, a shot in the dark.

UPDATE: Word that Gephardt has cancelled a trip to NH. Yep, he's out.