BUSH 290 KERRY 248
Electionprojection.com has it's new data up and it shows a very close race. The difference from 2000 is that Bush wins Iowa and New Mexico, although Election Projection indicates that these numbers are soft. Based on this, I'd say a lot of states are in play. Louisiana, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida certainly shouldn't be taken for granted by Republicans, and the Democrats should focus on protecting Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Oregon. And Kerry's VP pick could put any number of states into play. He won't make the same mistake that Al Gore made. He'll pick someone that will ensure a win in a state that Gore lost. Evan Bayh of Indiana, maybe? For this reason, he may not pick Edwards. Conventional wisdom is that Edwards would not have retained his North Carolina Senate seat and Bush had a big win in NC in 2000.

For similar reasons, I wouldn't be suprised if Cheney decided to step down "for health reasons." Wyoming's 3 electoral votes aren't much help and they are guaranteed Republican votes anyway. If Cheney goes, look for Bush to put New York into play.