ZOGBY: BUSH LEADS IN RED STATES, KERRY IN BLUE
Zogby's latest shows Bush leading in the states he won in 2000 by a large margin, 51%-39%. That would mean an electoral win of at least 278-260. Kerry's lead in the states carried by Al Gore is only 46%-45%. I would assume that means close "blue" states like Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa and Oregon are likely in the Bush column as of today. An electoral advantage for Bush of 307-231. If Kerry is forced to fight over "blue" states this summer and fall, there's no way he can win.

Another interesting finding by Zogby, by a margin of 50%-33%, people believe that Bush is better capable of dealing with al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran than Kerry is. Veterans (53%-27%) and current military (58%-32%) believe that Bush is better capable of handling these foreign policy challenges. This despite weeks of reminders about Kerry's military service, Bush's "champagne unit", and Kerry's great appeal to veterans. I guess Bush's experience and performance as Commander-in-Chief trumps Kerry's swift boat command when it comes to geostrategic issues and the fight against terrorism.