COMPOSITE POLL IN THE WORKS
As I continue to tweak the methodology of the FEDERAL REVIEW COMPOSITE POLL™ and Electoral Vote Projection, reviewing it's week to week performance and trying to ensure there is no pro-Bush bias (unlike the rest of this site), I'll go ahead and report the numbers through today, April 5. Kerry leads by the barest of margins, 46.8 to 46.7. Calculating the electoral vote total takes into account the composite poll result, as well as a review of recent state-by-state polls. This results in electoral votes that breakdown as follows: Bush 198, Kerry 182 and Toss Ups 158. Toss Ups are those where the lead is less than 5%. Allocating the toss ups, gives us Bush 278, Kerry 260. I'll call that "too close to call".

Watch this space for a new page dedicated to the FEDERAL REVIEW COMPOSITE POLL™, complete with analysis.

UPDATE: A new Zogby poll (thanks Brian) is out and has been factored into the FEDERAL REVIEW COMPOSITE POLL™. We use the poll with Nader as an option, so the revised composite is Bush 46.6, Kerry 46.4, with electoral votes going to Bush 288, Kerry 250. Still a close one.