DEBUT OF FEDERAL REVIEW COMPOSITE POLL
I have uploaded the first public Federal Review Composite Poll and Electoral Vote Prediction. Bush and Kerry are tied at 48.9, although I see a trend in Kerry's favor. See the full analysis here.

This is a serious attempt to make a prediction, based on how public opinion stands today, and it will be updated weekly. In any judgment calls I make, I try to lean toward Kerry in order to eliminate, or at least mitigate, bias toward Bush. Unfortunately, since the Electoral Vote Prediction uses 2000 results as a baseline for the analysis, that means a close popular vote will often show Bush leading the Electoral Vote, a bias built into the system by history, not by me.

I welcome your comments regarding everything from presentation to methodology. You can post comments to this entry, or at Free Republic. If someone could load the analysis into Democratic Underground (I was tombstoned long ago), I'd appreciate it. It would be interesting to see comments from there as well.

UPDATE: You can also comment on the analysis at Democratic Underground. Thanks to Brian for hooking me up. Now, I expect to get some serious constructive criticism.