NEW COMPOSITE POLL -- AND A LITTLE LOVE FROM NRO
Let's look a little behind the numbers in today's Composite Poll, which shows Kerry leading the national popular vote 49.45 to 46.83. That's a big lead for someone losing the electoral vote 275-263. Why?

As the electoral vote is calculated, I weight recent state polls more heavily than older ones. Thus, I hope to reduce the effect of statistical fluctations and identify real trends. Sure, there was a recent California poll that had Kerry up by only 1. Reason to celebrate (or cry)? Not so fast. Previous polling gave Kerry a 10 point lead.

Also weighted among the state polling is a factor based on 2000 results adjusted by the Composite Poll result. Here's how it works for Michigan, where a recent poll gave Bush a 4 point lead.

2000 Margin: Gore by 5.27% (of the two-party vote)
Adjust margin to allocate Nader (65/35): Gore by 5.75%
Adjusted result based on Composite Poll is 5.75 + Kerry's lead of 2.88 this week. This is used as a state poll in the weighted average (but weighted as though it weren't a recent poll). Other state polls included in the weighted average, from oldest to newest, include Kerry 1, Kerry 10, Kerry 4, Bush 4.

Plug the numbers into my formulas, we report a Kerry lead in Michigan of 2%. If we get another new poll showing a Bush lead of 4 points, Michigan would move to a true toss-up. Back off Kerry's lead in the national composite result, Michigan slides to Bush's column. A tortured process, but I think a 2 point win by Kerry in Michigan is a reasonable prediction (and something other pundits would come to without a complex Excel spreadsheet).

Anyway, I think we'll be able to identify trends this way. And, right now, the trend is clearly in favor of Kerry, who is picking up electoral votes and popular votes. I expect that unless Bush gets some bump in national or state polling, next week's electoral prediction will be showing a Kerry win.

I enjoy doing all this number crunching. It's a lot of work, but a lot of fun for a political junkie like me. So, it is really gratifying to get some props from National Review (what took them so long, I've been a subscriber for years!). See what Jim Geraghty at the Kerry Spot 24/7 had to say right here.

UPDATE: And an almost-mention from the Corner and K.Lo. So close, yet so far. But they are making too much of my lose-the-popular-vote, win-the-E.C. prediction. It's May, for crying out loud. This thing will change.