Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284
Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan won Pennsylvania in 1980 and 1984, but each time by a smaller margin than the national popular vote. What does this tell us? If this election is as close as 2000 and Pennsylvania remains consistent with its past, Kerry will win its electoral votes. Keep in mind, of course, that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Despite Pennsylvania’s tendency to be more Democratic than the nation, the trend may be in the Republican’s favor. In 1984, Reagan won the state by a margin of 7.35%. But he won the national popular vote by 18.22%. Thus, Pennsylvania in 1984 was 10.87% more Democratic in 1984 than the nation as a whole. In 1988, it was only 5.42% more Democratic, and in 1992, 3.46%; 1996, 0.68%. The trend since 1984 has been in favor of the Republicans. However, in 2000, Gore won Pennsylvania by 4.17%, which was a win of 3.65% of greater than the national popular vote. The overall trend since 1984 might favor the Republicans, but the 2000 results suggests that Pennsylvania may have turned around.
That’s why they call it a Battleground State.
By analyzing a state’s popular vote as compared to the national popular vote, we can determine whether a state leans Democrat or Republican. Sure, Bush 41 won California, but does that mean that after 3 elections voting Republican, that California was trending Republican? No. It began its pro-Democrat trend in 1984. Reagan won the state by 2% less than he won the national popular vote. Bush 41 won California by 4.16% less than he won the national popular vote, and the numbers only get worse for the Republicans in the 1990s.
So, what are the other Battleground States assuming the national popular vote is close, based on trends? I have categorized a state as a 1988 Battleground if its median variance from the national popular vote margin since 1988 is less than 6%.
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Michigan
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin
That’s 19 states. Of those, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin are most often mentioned among today’s list of Battlegrounds. Not included on the list, but mentioned as 2004 Battlegrounds because of the 2000 results are Arkansas, Arizona, Minnesota and West Virginia.
But, by looking at the trend lines (I’ve used a polynomial trend line in Excel because, well, it looks reasonable and I admit I have no idea what would be the best type of trend line), we can say that the following states should be in play in 2004 – assuming a close national popular vote. If the trend holds and the national vote is near even (the winner is in parenthesis).
Arizona (Bush)
Florida (Kerry)
Iowa (Bush)
Louisiana (Bush)
Maine (Kerry)
Michigan (Kerry)
Minnesota (Bush)
Missouri (Bush)
Nevada (Bush)
New Hampshire (Kerry)
New Mexico (Kerry)
Ohio (Bush)
Oregon (Bush)
Pennsylvania (Kerry)
West Virginia (Bush)
Wisconsin (Bush)
Out of play, Colorado (Bush), Delaware (Kerry), Tennessee (Bush) and Washington (Kerry). More on these trends another day.
The Job Approval numbers are interesting. Approve/Disapprove numbers this week are as follows: Gallup: 47/49; ABC News 47/50; CBS 41/52; Fox 48/43. That’s interesting, CBS and Fox seem odd. Perhaps there’s a reason for Fox’s odd number, while CBS’ is probably a statistical aberration (consistent with its head-to-head numbers, which show a Kerry lead of 6 while all the other polls are within 2). Fox asks a different question than Gallup, ABC and CBS. Fox asks “Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?” The other pollsters ask “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?” One question sounds like it is asking about the job someone is doing. The bottom line. The other seems to be about style as well. Not about the job that is done, but about the method in which it is handled. I wonder why?
Now, this week’s data. Kerry has been running his ads and Bush’s approval ratings have dropped. Result, bump for Kerry. As Bush begins his speeches about the Iraq transition, we’ll see if there’s any movement his way over the next few weeks. CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL DATA, MAPS and GRAPHS.
UPDATE: Damn! The map on the next page colors Pennsylvania pink. It should be light blue. I'll correct it tonight.
