THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE
Bush 47.5 - 246 | Kerry 49.8 - 292
Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246.
You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've decided to adopt what I understand is the traditional color coding standard. The incumbent is blue and the challenger is red. That suits me, because I think red suits Kerry better.
But before we get to the numbers, and our eye catching new way of presenting them, let's talk about trends and forecasting. Thanks to the wonderful versatility of Excel and my own spreadsheet OCD, I've run some predictions based on the last 4 months of numbers. Since I've always said that I think this analysis works more for showing trends in the race and not for showing a specific daily snapshot or actual prediction of where things will be in November, I ran a least squares linear regression analysis to forecast the November 2 results. Basically, if the prevailing trends in the race over the last 4 months continue until election day, then this forecast will be accurate. Of course, that's an untrue assumption, isn't it. Dynamics will change. But I thought the results are interesting, especially as everything is swinging back toward Kerry.
So, the popular vote forecast for election day is Bush 46.8 | Kerry 48.7. Forecasting the electoral vote, state by state according to our weekly analysis, says Bush will win 278-260 - the same spread (adjusted for the census) that Bush beat Gore, but some of the states are different. But I'll tell you right now that if Bush loses the popular vote by almost 2 percent, he is not going to win the electoral vote.
Now, about the oft repeated notion that the undecides break for the challenger. In analyzing the weekly polls that this analysis uses (not including the Iowa electronic markets, which is not a poll), the Undecideds come in at an average of 6.85%. I use a convoluted method analyzing job approval and favorability ratings to determine how to allocate the undecided. Right now, they break down in favor of Kerry, who gets 56%-44%. But Dick Morris tells you they break much more heavily for the challenger. I'm not so sure.
I analyzed the numbers since 1976 reported by the National Council on Public Polls. Since that election, undecides have gone in favor of the challenger 55%-34%. Not too far off my number, but more favorable for the challenger. But the thing with statistics, you can find contradictory numbers.
Is challenger status the only thing that may effect how undecided voters break? Perhaps Democrats are generally more attractive to late deciders. So, I ran the numbers by political party. Generally, undecides break toward the Republican, 48-40. That's not a big advantage, but certainly different than the challanger/incumbent analysis. Why should one be more correct than the other?
Well, what about Republican Incuments versus Democrat challengers? Undecides break for the Democrat challenger 42%-31%. So, I took all those measures that are consistent with this race, Challenger vs. Incumbent, Republican vs. Democrat and Republican Incumbent vs. Democrat Challenger, and averaged them. The result, if this is actually predictive, is that undecides in this race will break for Kerry 55%-45%. Consistent with my convoluted job approval / favorability analysis that today allocates the undecided 56%-44%. Does all of this analysis mean that my numbers are the best predictions of the trends in this race? I leave it up to you to decide.
Now, some more numbers:
CBS/New York Times (Bush 42 | Kerry 45)
Investor's Business Daily (Bush 43 | Kerry 47)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 45.7 | Kerry 47.1)
Iowa Electronic Market (Bush 52.4 | Kerry 48.2)
AP/Ipsos (Bush 49 | Kerry 45)
CNN/USAToday/Gallup (Bush 45 | Kerry 50)
Zogby (Bush 45 | Kerry 47)
Newsweek (Bush 44 | Kerry 47)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 45.7 | Kerry 47)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 50.9 | 47.5)
None.
Florida
Wisconsin
Arkansas *NEW* (Bush)
Florida (Kerry)
New Hampshire (Bush)
Ohio (Bush)
West Virginia *NEW* (Kerry)
Wisconsin (Kerry)
For maps, graphs and a new more viewer friendly way of presenting the state by state data, see the Composite Poll page and the New Data Page.
