July 6, 2004
IT’S A NEW RACE – MAYBE AND NOT YET
Bush 49.8% – 275 EV | Kerry 48.0% – 263 EV
Now that John Edwards has joined John Kerry’s ticket (John John in 04?), the July 6 Composite Poll numbers don’t really count. Or do they? We’ll see a bump for Kerry over the next couple of weeks as he and Edwards dominate the news, but does the Veep choice really effect the overall race? We’ll have a better idea by looking at the polls in mid August.
Since these numbers are clearly stale as they don’t include recent polls from CBS and NBC showing Kerry/Edwards moving into the lead (and since I’m on vacation), there will be no detailed update. But keep in mind, that CBS and NBC were slapped together on the floy with high margins of error, and have this year shown greater errors from the mean in favor of Kerry.
NBC / Wall Street Journal (Bush 45 | 44)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 45.5 | Kerry 45.8)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 52.8 | Kerry 46.3)
Last Week’s Polls
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (Bush 47 | Kerry 40)
CBS (Bush 43 | Kerry 42)
CNN/USAToday/Gallup (Bush 48 | Kerry 47)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 45.4 | Kerry 45.9)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 53.0 | Kerry 46.1)
New Hampshire
Kerry State Gains
None
Toss Ups (slight lead of less than 2%)
Michigan (Kerry)
New Hampshire (Bush)
New Mexico (Bush)
Ohio (Kerry)
Oregon (Bush)
Pennsylvania (Kerry)
Wisconsin (Bush)
