ABC CHANGES SAMPLE, SHOWS KERRY BOUNCE
Before the Democratic Convention, the ABC / Washington Post poll showed a Bush lead, 50-46. That sample was 34% Democrat, 33% Republican and 29% Independent. Not too far off of the turnout model in 2000.

ABC's new poll shows a Kerry lead of 49-47 among likely voters. This new sample is skewed a wee bit more to the Democrats. 40% Democrat, 32% Republican, 24% Independent. So, let's see. Before the convention, with 1 point advantage built into the sample, Kerry trailed by 4. Now, with an 8 point advantage built into the sample, Kerry leads by 2. I'm not sure these numbers are very good for the Kerry campaign.