BUSH GAINS, KERRY LEADS
Bush 48.5% – 222 EV | Kerry 49.9% – 316 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 191| Kerry 247| Toss 100
August 24, 2004

Bush has made gains this week, but Kerry still leads. And it doesn't matter how close, it's a pass-fail test.

One new measure listed on the Election Simulation. For each state with movement in the probability from the previous week, the Simulation shows which candidate gained. All states that moved went toward Bush.

But his probability remains low this week, at 26%.

I expect further change over the next three weeks in Bush's favor. If not, then things are looking bad for the Bush campaign.

Now, the numbers, maps and graphs.