KERRY - 75% PROBABILITY OF WIN
New numbers in the simulation. Whatever, this is how things stand now, without taking into account, of course, what happens between now and November.

I love the people at Gallup, mainly because they show my guy in the lead - 48-46. Once they start showing him behind, I can start complaining about "special sauce" and "turnout models" when the numbers go the other way. Like Pew. What's up with them?

Anyway, Gallup has Bush's job approval at 51%. According to USA Today, "No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost." Don't get cocky. In 1993, Michigan was 30-1 when leading at the 5 minute mark. They finished the season 30-2. But still, I'm glad one of those polling rules o' thumb is going Bush's way for a change.

And remember, Dukakis led by 17 at this point in 1988. Sure, the electorate may be different this year. But so is the Democratic candidate.