KERRY WIN PROBABILITY PLUNGES
Based on recent national and especially state polling, Kerry's win probability has plunged from around 75% last week to only 53% today. While there's only a 1% chance of a tie in the Electoral College, the average electoral votes received by each candidate over 20,000 trials is 269, and the 95% confidence range for each candidate's electoral vote total is 201-337 (i.e., if the election were held today, there's a 95% probability that each candidate's electoral vote total would be within this range).

Since last Tuesday's simulation, all states that have had changes in win probability of more than 5% have moved in Bush's favor. For the details, see the Election Simulation.

For recent state polls, check out ECB 2004.

Other simulation methods have shown decreased chances for Kerry - but they differ on the extent of the drop. See TruthIsAll and Sam Wang.