Sometimes I'm a little more negative, a bit more likely to behold the dark grey clouds of despair. Today is one of those days, with polls in Michigan and NJ sliding those states even more solidly in Senator Swifty's column, and one in Florida has the Cambodian War Vet up 6. At times like this, I even see something on DailyKos and think, maybe that's right. Of course, DailyKos is enough to put anyone into a funk, but here's what the left sayeth:
Superficially, W's position doesn't look that bad. He enjoys the agenda-setting advantages of incumbency, an adequate war chest, pliant media, an approaching convention bounce, control of Congress and the year-end pork cycle. Not bad cards to hold against a small deficit in the polls.I remember the self-destruction of 1992. Yeah, I know, Clinton was more likeable than Mr. Less-Competent-than-Dukakis-more-exciting-than-Mondale. But still, a reasonably close race just went all to hell in a few weeks because Bush 41's guys just had no clue what to do.
But GOP are not just behind a little in the polls. They're in simultaneous arrears on multiple accounts. They have almost enough rope. Almost enough duct tape. Almost enough time and skill. No single deficit looks insurmountable.
The fun starts when they have to fashion a particular rope bridge to get a particular herd of elephants across a particular chasm -- in this case, a Great Divide where giant mutant chickens are coming home to roost.
That's when Team Bush turns its energy to stretching and borrowing and corner-cutting ... followed by grunting and cursing and finger-pointing ... and finally frantic speculation about weaving ropes out of elephant hide, or building a catapult instead of a bridge.
As GOP outfitters double-check their charts and gear, take stock of provisions, and calculate pack weight versus burn rate -- they're in for a rapid succession of rude awakenings.
And I don't have that much confidence in the presumed genius of Mr. Rove. After all, he lost the popular vote and barely won the electoral vote. Against an annoying, self-important dimwit with more baggage than a new mother sitting next to you on an overseas flight and more personalities than Sybill. Lee Atwater was a campaign genius. Karl Rove needs to lock up over 300 before anyone should even think about using that term with him.
Perhaps the convention will straighten me out. Or maybe a few drinks.

