BUSH WIN PROBABILITY AT 67%
Keep in mind, that since this is a midweek simulation, it does not include a full week of national polling, which could, conceivably, pull down the number reported by Time. In addition, this is more directly dependent on state-by-state polling, although the national numbers do have some effect. This only includes state polls released after Monday of this week, but all were taken prior to the start of the Republican National Convention.

In any case, you should not see this as predicting a Bush win if the election were held today until it gets over 95%. Of course, it does indicate that Bush has some kind of advantage. As of today.

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