So says Dick Morris, and it's because the voters don't like him. I think Dick is right here. Look at recent elections in which incumbents have gone down to defeat, the more likeable candidate wins. Clinton was more likeable than Bush 41. Reagan more likeable than Carter. Carter more likeable than Ford. Was Johnson more likeable than Goldwater? Probably.
But Dick Morris hits on a bigger point about the Kerry campaign. It has been nothing but anti-Bush, and a huge number of Kerry's "supporters" are only anti-Bush - not pro-Kerry. So, when Kerry runs with the National Guard issue, he seems to be doing nothing but reinforcing the anti-Bush nature of his support, which just won't help him. And Morris points out another reason that the National Guard issue is a loser for Kerry - it's irrelevant and the voters know it.
Even now, he relies on the old National Guard records of Bush to animate his campaign, as if we are about to form our judgment of how Bush would be as a commander based on 30-year- old, possibly forged records rather than on our own observation of how he has done the job.I still think that Kerry can right the ship, but it won't be easy. He's going to have to get everyone from Mary Beth Cahill to James Carville on the same side of the boat to keep it from fully capsizing. And I wouldn't make that bet.
