Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Gore +13.1
Composite Margin: Kerry +8.5
Current Category: Advantage Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 50-50
Best Kerry: 63-37
Trend: Democrat +11.6
Safe: Most likely.
Can other candidate win? Anything’s possible.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Not enough data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +9
In order for the Composite methodology to work, you need data. All the numbers you see up top (except for the Trend and 2000 Winner) should be taken with a bucket of salt. There have only been 2 polls all year in Delaware and they both showed Kerry leading. In one, Kerry led 45-38. In the other, 50-41. Both were taken after the Republican convention, so don’t think that may have swayed voters. One was by American Research Group who’s numbers have tended to be more favorable to Kerry than other pollsters.
With limited data for this race, we must rely on historical data. With only 3 electoral votes, Delaware’s claim to fame use to be that whoever wins Delaware, wins the election. It was a bellwether. Until 2000, when Gore won the state, the national popular vote, but lost the election. Delaware has been more favorable to the Republican than the nation as a whole in 1964, 1968, 1984 and 1988. Democrats have done better here than nationally in 1960, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996 and 2000. The recent trend favors the Democrats. The only polls this year supports that.
The question: will Delaware act like neighbor Maryland and give Kerry a big win, or like New Jersey and Pennsylvania where the election is closer. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bush won it, but I’m quite confident that Kerry wins Delaware.
NORTH CAROLINA
Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Winner: Bush +12.8
Composite Margin: Bush +8.5
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 93%
Best Bush: 60-40
Best Kerry: 47-53
Trend: Republican +14.4
Safe: Almost.
Can other candidate win? Probably not.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +6
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +15
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -3
Throughout 2004, even before Edwards landed on the ticket, North Carolina has polled closer than the 2000 result. Some North Carolina poll watchers tend to think that Republicans always perform better on election day than in polls in North Carolina. That may be, but I wouldn’t rely on it.
Bush has swung between 48 and 55 in polls this year, while Kerry has moved between 40-45. In the last month, Bush has consistently garnered the support of 50% or more, except once, where he still led by 8. For Kerry to win North Carolina, there will have to be some phenomenon working that hasn’t shown up in polling this year – as well as a significant national result in his favor.
Because Edwards is from North Carolina, there’s also a chance that his presence will change the dynamics in the state and thereby old exit polling models may not apply. Exit pollsters chose precincts that they think are representative of the state. President Bush won Wake County (Edwards’ home) in 2000, but has trailed significantly in polls in that county this year. If exit pollsters follow old models, it may be difficult for networks to make an early projection as Kerry/Edwards’ support could be over represented in the exit poll sample. So, networks may wait for the tally to start coming in.
Historically, Republicans have done better in North Carolina than nationally in every election beginning with Reagan’s reelection. And in each successive year, it has become more and more Republican favorable. It will pull back a little this year, but will still give the Republican a bigger margin than the nation as a whole.
Bush wins this one. Do does senate candidate Richard Burr. Gubernatorial candidate Patrick Ballantine’s only chance is if Bush wins by more than 10.
For an explanation of this data, click here.
For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.
For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.
Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.
