ELECTION SCENARIOS
Gerry Daly outlines the state-by-state paths to victory for Bush and Kerry, first by cutting down the number of battlegrounds to a reasonable number. He lists the following true battleground states:

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Arkansas
New Mexico
Hawaii

You can simplify his scenarios by eliminating some states from the calculus. I think you can safely put Arkansas in Bush's column and Pennsylvania in Kerry's unless the national numbers break one way or the other in the next few days. If either of those states go the other way, then I doubt you'll have to consider too many scenarios to know who is going to win.

Also, you can generally forget about scenarios where Bush wins Minnesota unless he's already got Wisconsin. Minnesota seems well correlated with Wisconsin, but Wisconsin is more Bush favorable. If Bush wins Minnesota, then I guarantee he also wins Wisconsin. But it doesn't work the other way around. So, the only reason to consider Minnesota in Daly's scenarios, is in connection with a Wisconsin win.

Sure, I'm limiting the scenarios based on my gut (and some poll numbers), and Gerry has done a great job laying out the possibilities.

And I do agree that when Tim Russert brings out that stupid greaseboard on election night and drones on about 2 of 3 (OH, FL and PA), he could very well be wrong.

And if it comes down to waiting on Hawaii's polls to close at 11:00 PM EST, somebody come over to my house, feed me about 6 shots of Tequila and put me to bed. I'll be passed the breaking point by then.