Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Winner: Gore +12
Composite Margin: Kerry +11.7
Current Category: Advantage Kerry (high end of range)
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 49-51
Best Kerry: 61-39
Trend: Democrat +13
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -5
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +16
Like New York, Illinois got really tight in the polls during the course of this race. Out of 13 polls in my analysis, Bush was within single digits 4 times, three of which were in September. By October, Kerry extended his lead to 11 or 17 in the two polls released this month. Clearly, Illinois voters were a little confused by the Republican convention but came back home to John Kerry during the debates. While it’s possible Illinois could be closer today than the 11.7 margin I currently see, I can’t imagine it ever being competitive. Who’s going to buy ads in Chicago anyway?
Illinois became a Democrat state for good in 1980, when it voted for Reagan but was more favorable to Carter than the nation as a whole (by 1.8 points). It’s been moving more and more Democratic ever since and this year will be no exception.
For an explanation of this data, click here.
For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.
For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.
Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.
