Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Winner: Bush +15.1
Composite Margin: Bush +19.0
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 98%
Best Bush: 64-36
Best Kerry: 48-52
Trend: Republican +15.1
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +30
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +20
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -6
Almost a battleground state when early polls showed it in the single digits, Kentucky has broken wide open for President Bush.
On election night, polls close first in Kentucky. Bush will get the 8 electoral votes and I suspect Bunning will win the Senate.
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +22.7
Composite Margin: Bush +18.8
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 96%
Best Bush: 68-32
Best Kerry: 46-54
Trend: Republican +21.7
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +37
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +27
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -13
Even McGovern couldn’t win his home state in 1972, and maybe this year Daschle can’t win his home state. Bush takes it, with Thune on his coattails.
For an explanation of this data, click here.
For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.
For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.
Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.
