KERRY CLOSING
Bush 50.1% – 291 EV | Kerry 48.8% – 247 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 284| Kerry 207| Toss 47

This week, we have some contradictory results, but I'm not prepared to say that Zogby is wrong. There are 12 national polls in this week's analysis and 49 polls in 24 different states and the picture is clear - Kerry is closing in. Three weeks ago, Bush led the composite national poll by 5.5 and in the electoral college 321-217. Now, his lead is barely more than 1 point, and his electoral total drops to 291. It is interesting to note that Bush still leads by more than 2% in states worth 284 electoral votes, so most of his losses have been in the middle, but if Kerry keeps up the momentum, this will change.

Now the details. More numbers, maps and graphs here.


This Week's Polls
FoxNews (Bush 47-45)
CBS (Bush 48-47)
Marist (Bush 49-46)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (Kerry 49-48)
Zogby-average Thurs/Mon results (Kerry 46-45)
ABC/Wash Post-avg Thurs/Mon results (Bush 50.5-46)
Rasmussen Reports-avg Thurs/Mon results (Bush 48.7-45.8)
American Research Group (Tied 46-46)
Pew Research (Bush 49-44)
Time Magazine (Bush 46-45)
Battleground GWU (Bush 49-46)
AP/Ipsos (Kerry 50-46)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 51.3-48.8)


Last Week's Polls
Newsweek (Kerry 47-45)
Battleground GWU (52-44)
LA Times (51-45)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (Tie 49-49)
Zogby (Bush 46-43)
ICR (Bush 51-41)
Investors Business Daily (Tie 45-45)
Pew Research (Bush 48-40)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 48.6-46.1)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 52.4-48.4)