Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Gore +16.4
Composite Margin: Kerry +12.5
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 89%
Best Bush: 48-52
Best Kerry: 65-35
Trend: Democrat +14.8
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Not enough data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: Tie
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +14
Maryland looked like it might be competitive in Late September and Early October when Bush tied it up. Since then, Kerry has led in the double digits and will take the state on November – barring some strange occurrence.
If the vote is around 5 points for Kerry, or less, then that may say something about other states. Watch carefully.
WASHINGTON
Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Winner: Gore +5.6
Composite Margin: Kerry +6.5
Current Category: Advantage Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 88%
Best Bush: 52-48
Best Kerry: 58-42
Trend: Democrat +6.1
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Maybe, but unlikely.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: Tied
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +11
This is our first Battleground state – or at least it was believed to be a Battleground earlier in the race. Regardless of how the national vote has swung, Washington has remained fairly steady, with Kerry generally polling within a couple of points of 50 and Bush within a couple of points of 44. While that looks like a fairly close race of about 6 points and Bush could surge ahead if he wins early states and discourages late Democrats from showing up, it is very unlikely that Bush could win Washington. Besides, there’s a tight Senate race in Washington and that should help turnout for both parties even if the election is decided early in the east.
Another bad sign for President Bush, despite the apparent closeness of the race, he has never led in any poll. I’m confident that Kerry wins Washington.
A Kerry win is consistent with historical trends, as Washington hasn’t voted more favorable for the Republican in the national vote since 1980, and even Dukakis – who lost California - won the state in 1988.
INDIANA
Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Winner: Bush +15.6
Composite Margin: Bush +17.5
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 96%
Best Bush: 62-38
Best Kerry: 46-54
Trend: Republican +16.4
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +21
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +28
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -12
Another state where Kerry has never been within single digits, even though it is wedged between safe Kerry state Illinois and toss-up Ohio. Bush has polled above 50% in every poll this year, except one, where he still led by 19. There’s no better evidence of an absolute lock on election night.
And in any close election, history tells us the Republicans will win Indiana, as the Republican always (since 1960, at least) does better here than nationally. So, that’s 11 electoral votes for Kerry in Washington, and 11 for Bush in Indiana.
For an explanation of this data, click here.
For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.
For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.
Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.
