Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Winner: Bush +16.9
Composite Margin: Bush +11.3
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 92%
Best Bush: 66-34
Best Kerry: 48-51
Trend: Democrat +15.9
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +22
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +31
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -9
Here is another state without much data, so take the numbers with a grain or million of salt. Bush led by 31 in April and 9 in September. That’s it. I may not be anywhere close to the correct margin of victory, but I do know one thing. Bush will win.
Historically, Mississippi has voted more heavily for the Republican than the nation since 1984. And that won’t change this year.
LOUISIANA
Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Winner: Bush +7.7
Composite Margin: Bush +10.0
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 87%
Best Bush: 59-41
Best Kerry: 51-49
Trend: Republican +4.9
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? If landslide.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +15
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +19
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -6
Democrats performed better in Louisiana than they did nationally in 1976 and 1996, but not in 1980, 1984, 1988 and 1992 so it shouldn’t have been such a surprise that in 2000 that Bush had a shot here. It was a surprise in 2000, but it won’t be in 2004. Bush has consistent polled above 50% in Louisiana this year, with Kerry swinging wildly from the low 40s to the low 30s. There’s little chance the race has changed enough since the last polls in mid October showing Bush up 8 and 9.
Not a battleground, but Bush country.
For an explanation of this data, click here.
For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.
For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.
Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.
