Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +26.6
Composite Margin: Bush +29
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 68-32
Best Kerry: 41-59
Trend: Republican +26.4
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +29
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -29
Johnson in 64, Republican ever since. Always more Republican than the national vote. Another Bush win.
ALASKA
Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +31.0
Composite Margin: Bush +27.5
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 71-29
Best Kerry: 40--60
Trend: Republican +32.9
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +27
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -23
Johnson won in 1964 by a bigger margin than he won nationally. All other years from 1960 to 2000, Alaska has given a greater percentage of its votes to the Republican than the nation as a whole. Must have something to do with that rugged individualism. And oil.
I suspect that the massive wins by Republicans in many of these western states is partially because turnout is suppressed among Democrats, who know their votes won’t matter in a presidential election. Alaska may be closer than my estimated 27.5 points this year, because of a close Senate race between Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and former Gov. Tony Knowles (D). Lisa was appointed to succeed her dad – by her dad when he became Governor. Larry Sabato calls the seat a toss-up.
On election night, a good way to see how well your candidate may be doing is to see how his exit poll margin in a state compares to state-by-state polling as reflected in the composite average. Alaska closes to late to be of any help, but generally, such a comparison won’t work as well where there are close state-by-state races (think Kentucky).
Regardless of the Senate race, Alaska is Bush Country.
For an explanation of this data, click here.
For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.
For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.
Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.
