PLUS SOME WORDS ON THE DEBATE
I have updated the numbers in the data file and in the election simulation. As of today, Bush leads in the Composite Poll 49.9-48.9. It's gotten closer.
The election simulation - and remember that state polling changes lag the national numbers - shows that as of now Bush has an 89% probability of winning the electoral vote. I have added a description of my simulation methodology, as well as some additional data to that page. Let me know if you have any questions about the methods. As always, I am happy to entertain any critique, criticism or unbridled enthusiasm.
I know I haven't discussed the VP debate. My initial reaction was draw - maybe an Edwards win, which is meaningless compared to the public reaction - especially the undecideds, soft leaners and the media who drive them - which is more important. Now, I think that it will go down in history as a Cheney win, who had the more memorable lines and demeanor. Cheney's statement that he had not met Edwards prior to that night proved to be false. So his statement was either (a) a lie or (b) evidence that Senator Edwards just isn't memorable. And the fact that a hard working press can find only a few meetings - all outside the Senate except for a ceremonial swearing-in, prove Cheney's point that Senator Edwards was not where he was supposed to be dealing with the important issues of the day (missing votes and meetings of the Intelligence and Judiciary Committees).
Anyway, it won't make much difference. Remember Quayle's old fashioned beating by the smug-long-time-buddy-of-JFK? Who became Vice President?
The next big event is Friday, when I suspect that Bush will be better prepared and better rested, ready to underscore the unseriousness of Kerry's positions. Pointing out that he'd submit our national security to a Global Test, proctored by the whims of nations and officials bribed by Saddam Hussein. That Kerry's going to have a hell of time in his meeting with Jacques Chirac (aka, Le Jackass).
CHIRAC: Fifty Thousand troops and 50 Billion Euros? Pourquoi?Plus, Bush won't make the mistake he did last time, spending a tiring day in Florida comforting Hurricane victims while Kerry had his nails done.
PRES. KERRY: A mistake.
CHIRAC: 50,000 for a faux pas?
PRES. KERRY: Yes. The wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time.
CHIRAC: You convinced me. Non!
