Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 13
2000 Winner: Bush +8.0
Composite Margin: Bush +5.7
Current Category: Lean Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 93%
Best Bush: 57-43
Best Kerry: 49-51
Trend: Republican +9.3
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +4
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +9
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -2
Democrats, Kerry fans and Bush haters insist upon listing Virginia among the toss up states. They reason that the polls are close, so Kerry could pull it out. They are correct that it is possible, but it is a lot less likely than they believe. In no weekly composite has Kerry led in Virginia and you’d think that there would be some movement within the margin of error to show him leading if he ever did. That's why the probability of a Bush win is calculated all the way up there at 93%.
Polls show Bush is supported by between 49% and 53% of Virginians, while Kerry gets between 43% and 46%. If the race were really at 49-46, Kerry would have to get 80% of the undecideds. If. But Bush probably already has 50% locked up.
No Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, and no Democrat has performed better in Virginia than he has performed nationally (at least since 1960). Things won't change this year.
