WHO WON THE DEBATE ROUND 1
It doesn't matter what I think, what matters is what everyone else thinks. According to polls, Kerry won. ABC has it Kerry 45 Bush 36 Draw 17. Gallup has it Kerry 57-37.

But as Gerry Daly argued recently, debates don't matter because they have never changed the race. Even big gaffes, such as Ford on Eastern Europe, Nixon's flop sweat or Bush 41 checking his watch did not alter the polling (Ford even gained). While there might be a slight bump for a candidate, it's gone by election time. We'll see if this year is the same, but I urge Kerry supporters who think they are back in it to read Gerry's analysis so they can be realistic about the impact of the Debates. You may still decide this will matter, but you'll be better informed.

Currently, the quickie polls from last night clearly say Kerry won. A meta-analysis composite of those polls shows Kerry wins 48-35-16, which actually is not too far off of the presidential preference polling numbers, that now stand in the composite as Bush 52, Kerry 46.

The internals of the ABC poll, despite a clear Kerry win, show that Bush still leads the horserace 51-47. ABC's last poll had the race on Sept 23 at 51-45. And Bush is still preferred on Iraq - at least according to this quickie flash poll, the reliability of which shouldn't be accepted at face value.

As for me, I'm still trying to figure out why Kerry was looking at KGB records in a Nazi death camp. He said it was in Treblinka Square. He meant something else but with the assurance he made the comment, it makes you wonder if he's tried to memorize things that he doesn't really know. I had to take a shot.