Total
Bush – 279
Kerry – 225

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 279
Kerry – 225

I've seen enough and I didn't screw up 2000, so I'm comfortable calling these.

And, to reiterate, the last refuge of the loser. The provisional ballot that you have to win by more than 80-20.

Gore held out because Florida was within 1,000. Kerry is down by more than 100,000. Big freakin' difference. Does Don Kerriote have no advisors that aren't afraid to tell him the truth? Apparently not.