NEW COMPOSITE POLL -- AND A LITTLE LOVE FROM NROLet's look a little behind the numbers in today's Composite Poll, which shows Kerry leading the national popular vote 49.45 to 46.83. That's a big lead for someone losing the electoral vote 275-263. Why?
As the electoral vote is calculated, I weight recent state polls more heavily than older ones. Thus, I hope to reduce the effect of statistical fluctations and identify real trends. Sure, there was a recent California poll that had Kerry up by only 1. Reason to celebrate (or cry)? Not so fast. Previous polling gave Kerry a 10 point lead.
Also weighted among the state polling is a factor based on 2000 results adjusted by the Composite Poll result. Here's how it works for Michigan, where a recent poll gave Bush a 4 point lead.
2000 Margin: Gore by 5.27% (of the two-party vote)
Adjust margin to allocate Nader (65/35): Gore by 5.75%
Adjusted result based on Composite Poll is 5.75 + Kerry's lead of 2.88 this week. This is used as a state poll in the weighted average (but weighted as though it weren't a recent poll). Other state polls included in the weighted average, from oldest to newest, include Kerry 1, Kerry 10, Kerry 4, Bush 4.
Plug the numbers into my formulas, we report a Kerry lead in Michigan of 2%. If we get another new poll showing a Bush lead of 4 points, Michigan would move to a true toss-up. Back off Kerry's lead in the national composite result, Michigan slides to Bush's column. A tortured process, but I think a 2 point win by Kerry in Michigan is a reasonable prediction (and something other pundits would come to without a complex Excel spreadsheet).
Anyway, I think we'll be able to identify trends this way. And, right now, the trend is clearly in favor of Kerry, who is picking up electoral votes and popular votes. I expect that unless Bush gets some bump in national or state polling, next week's electoral prediction will be showing a Kerry win.
I enjoy doing all this number crunching. It's a lot of work, but a lot of fun for a political junkie like me. So, it is really gratifying to get some props from
National Review (what took them so long, I've been a subscriber for years!). See what Jim Geraghty at the
Kerry Spot 24/7 had to say
right here.
UPDATE: And an almost-mention from
the Corner and K.Lo. So close, yet so far. But they are making too much of my lose-the-popular-vote, win-the-E.C. prediction. It's May, for crying out loud. This thing will change.
1988-2004 PARALLELSI have noted previously that, like 1988, the Democrats will nominate a Massachusetts liberal to run for president. In fact, they are going to nominate Michael Dukakis' lieutenant governor. Web site
Election 2004 offers a
fascinating analysis of the similarities - and differences - between 1988 and 2004. I might quibble with his argument that Cheney may be as much a drag on the ticket as Quayle, or that Nader draws his support almost exclusively from people who would otherwise vote Kerry (exit polls and current polling seems to indicate he pulls about 65% from Kerry and 35% from Bush - or the split may be even closer than that), but the
whole thing is worth a read -- written by an opposition researcher from the Bush 88 campaign.
WEAPONIZED WMD FOUND IN IRAQSarin gas. I expect around the clock, obsessive coverage from the U.S. media. And I expect John Kerry to point out his statements in 1998 and 2003 about how he knew they had WMD all along.
Outrage at the Lack of OutrageWhere are the cries of protest from "moderate middle eastern Arabs" at the Berg beheading? Perhaps "moderate middle eastern Arab" is an oxymoron. While the prison abuse scandal showed wanton vulgarity and cruelty among some Americans, the Berg beheading shows unspeakable savagery among some Arabs. But here in the U.S., democracy is showing that there will be some (limited?) accountability for the acts. Where is the Arab rebuke for the beheading? Al-Jazeera, the terrorist network, won't even show it. It should be noted that even FOX news, who pretty openly campaigns for the administration in all causes, shows the prison photos.
While the Pentagon touts its own investigations, our Congress is finally getting the idea that it has an oversight role (because this is a democratic republic, not a monarchy) and is launching a full investigation into the prison practices. Unfortunately, partisan voices like Kennedy and Inhofe (who both missed a good opportunity to keep their mouths shut) will taint the credibility of their respective sides, but there are still honorable Americans like Levin, Warner and Graham who will see this through. There will be accountability here, even if some the U.S. don't want it. Who in the Arab world will speak out against the beheading? Don't hold your breath. Not all Arabs are like Zarqawi - no sane person doubts this. But silence on this matter is the same as condoning it.
Accountable?.............In what way, sir?Rumsfeld said "I'm accountable" when testifying before Congress about the abuse of prisoners. It seems a fair question to ask just how that accountability manifests itself. One of "Rumfeld's rules" is to be willing to resign. Perhaps this incident calls for his resignation and perhaps not. I just want to know what form, if any, the accountability he claims will take.
