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Saturday, June 05, 2004
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN'S FAREWELL SPEECH
This is the 34th time I'll speak to you from the Oval Office and the last. We've been together 8 years now, and soon it'll be time for me to go. But before I do, I wanted to share some thoughts, some of which I've been saving for a long time.

It's been the honor of my life to be your President. So many of you have written the past few weeks to say thanks, but I could say as much to you. Nancy and I are grateful for the opportunity you gave us to serve.

One of the things about the Presidency is that you're always somewhat apart. You spent a lot of time going by too fast in a car someone else is driving, and seeing the people through tinted glass--the parents holding up a child, and the wave you saw too late and couldn't return. And so many times I wanted to stop and reach out from behind the glass, and connect. Well, maybe I can do a little of that tonight.

People ask how I feel about leaving. And the fact is, `parting is such sweet sorrow.' The sweet part is California and the ranch and freedom. The sorrow--the goodbyes, of course, and leaving this beautiful place.

You know, down the hall and up the stairs from this office is the part of the White House where the President and his family live. There are a few favorite windows I have up there that I like to stand and look out of early in the morning. The view is over the grounds here to the Washington Monument, and then the Mall and the Jefferson Memorial. But on mornings when the humidity is low, you can see past the Jefferson to the river, the Potomac, and the Virginia shore. Someone said that's the view Lincoln had when he saw the smoke rising from the Battle of Bull Run. I see more prosaic things: the grass on the banks, the morning traffic as people make their way to work, now and then a sailboat on the river.

I've been thinking a bit at that window. I've been reflecting on what the past 8 years have meant and mean. And the image that comes to mind like a refrain is a nautical one--a small story about a big ship, and a refugee, and a sailor. It was back in the early eighties, at the height of the boat people. And the sailor was hard at work on the carrier Midway, which was patrolling the South China Sea. The sailor, like most American servicemen, was young, smart, and fiercely observant. The crew spied on the horizon a leaky little boat. And crammed inside were refugees from Indochina hoping to get to America. The Midway sent a small launch to bring them to the ship and safety. As the refugees made their way through the choppy seas, one spied the sailor on deck, and stood up, and called out to him. He yelled, `Hello, American sailor. Hello, freedom man.'

A small moment with a big meaning, a moment the sailor, who wrote it in a letter, couldn't get out of his mind. And, when I saw it, neither could I. Because that's what it was to be an American in the 1980's. We stood, again, for freedom. I know we always have, but in the past few years the world again--and in a way, we ourselves--rediscovered it.

It's been quite a journey this decade, and we held together through some stormy seas. And at the end, together, we are reaching our destination.

The fact is, from Grenada to the Washington and Moscow summits, from the recession of '81 to '82, to the expansion that began in late '82 and continues to this day, we've made a difference. The way I see it, there were two great triumphs, two things that I'm proudest of. One is the economic recovery, in which the people of America created--and filled--19 million new jobs. The other is the recovery of our morale. America is respected again in the world and looked to for leadership.

Something that happened to me a few years ago reflects some of this. It was back in 1981, and I was attending my first big economic summit, which was held that year in Canada. The meeting place rotates among the member countries. The opening meeting was a formal dinner of the heads of goverment of the seven industrialized nations. Now, I sat there like the new kid in school and listened, and it was all Francois this and Helmut that. They dropped titles and spoke to one another on a first-name basis. Well, at one point I sort of leaned in and said, 'My name's Ron.' Well, in that same year, we began the actions we felt would ignite an economic comeback--cut taxes and regulation, started to cut spending. And soon the recovery began.

Two years later, another economic summit with pretty much the same cast. At the big opening meeting we all got together, and all of a sudden, just for a moment, I saw that everyone was just sitting there looking at me. And then one of them broke the silence. 'Tell us about the American miracle,' he said.

Well, back in 1980, when I was running for President, it was all so different. Some pundits said our programs would result in catastrophe. Our views on foreign affairs would cause war. Our plans for the economy would cause inflation to soar and bring about economic collapse. I even remember one highly respected economist saying, back in 1982, that `The engines of economic growth have shut down here, and they're likely to stay that way for years to come.' Well, he and the other opinion leaders were wrong. The fact is what they call `radical' was really `right.' What they called `dangerous' was just `desperately needed.'

And in all of that time I won a nickname, `The Great Communicator.' But I never though it was my style or the words I used that made a difference: it was the content. I wasn't a great communicator, but I communicated great things, and they didn't spring full bloom from my brow, they came from the heart of a great nation--from our experience, our wisdom, and our belief in the principles that have guided us for two centuries. They called it the Reagan revolution. Well, I'll accept that, but for me it always seemed more like the great rediscovery, a rediscovery of our values and our common sense.

Common sense told us that when you put a big tax on something, the people will produce less of it. So, we cut the people's tax rates, and the people produced more than ever before. The economy bloomed like a plant that had been cut back and could now grow quicker and stronger. Our economic program brought about the longest peacetime expansion in our history: real family income up, the poverty rate down, entrepreneurship booming, and an explosion in research and new technology. We're exporting more than ever because American industry because more competitive and at the same time, we summoned the national will to knock down protectionist walls abroad instead of erecting them at home.

Common sense also told us that to preserve the peace, we'd have to become strong again after years of weakness and confusion. So, we rebuilt our defenses, and this New Year we toasted the new peacefulness around the globe. Not only have the superpowers actually begun to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons--and hope for even more progress is bright--but the regional conflicts that rack the globe are also beginning to cease. The Persian Gulf is no longer a war zone. The Soviets are leaving Afghanistan. The Vietnamese are preparing to pull out of Cambodia, and an American-mediated accord will soon send 50,000 Cuban troops home from Angola.

The lesson of all this was, of course, that because we're a great nation, our challenges seem complex. It will always be this way. But as long as we remember our first principles and believe in ourselves, the future will always be ours. And something else we learned: Once you begin a great movement, there's no telling where it will end. We meant to change a nation, and instead, we changed a world.

Countries across the globe are turning to free markets and free speech and turning away from the ideologies of the past. For them, the great rediscovery of the 1980's has been that, lo and behold, the moral way of government is the practical way of government: Democracy, the profoundly good, is also the profoundly productive.

When you've got to the point when you can celebrate the anniversaries of your 39th birthday you can sit back sometimes, review your life, and see it flowing before you. For me there was a fork in the river, and it was right in the middle of my life. I never meant to go into politics. It wasn't my intention when I was young. But I was raised to believe you had to pay your way for the blessings bestowed on you. I was happy with my career in the entertainment world, but I ultimately went into politics because I wanted to protect something precious.

Ours was the first revolution in the history of mankind that truly reversed the course of government, and with three little words: `We the People.' `We the People' tell the government what to do; it doesn't tell us. `We the People' are the driver; the government is the car. And we decide where it should go, and by what route, and how fast. Almost all the world's constitutions are documents in which governments tell the people what their privileges are. Our Constitution is a document in which `We the People' tell the government what it is allowed to do. `We the People' are free. This belief has been the underlying basis for everything I've tried to do these past 8 years.

But back in the 1960's, when I began, it seemed to me that we'd begun reversing the order of things--that through more and more rules and regulations and confiscatory taxes, the government was taking more of our money, more of our options, and more of our freedom. I went into politics in part to put up my hand and say, `Stop.' I was a citizen politician, and it seemed the right thing for a citizen to do.

I think we have stopped a lot of what needed stopping. And I hope we have once again reminded people that man is not free unless government is limited. There's a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: As government expands, liberty contracts.

Nothing is less free than pure communism--and yet we have, the past few years, forged a satisfying new closeness with the Soviet Union. I've been asked if this isn't a gamble, and my answer is no because we're basing our actions not on words but deeds. The detente of the 1970's was based not on actions but promises. They'd promise to treat their own people and the people of the world better. But the gulag was still the < i>gulag, and the state was still expansionist, and they still waged proxy wars in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Well, this time, so far, it's different. President Gorbachev has brought about some internal democratic reforms and begun the withdrawal from Afghanistan. He has also freed prisoners whose names I've given him every time we've met.

But life has a way of reminding you of big things through small incidents. Once, during the heady days of the Moscow summit, Nancy and I decided to break off from the entourage one afternoon to visit the shops on Arbat Street--that's a little street just off Moscow's main shopping area. Even though our visit was a surprise, every Russian there immediately recognized us and called out our names and reached for our hands. We were just about swept away by the warmth. You could almost feel the possibilities in all that joy. But within seconds, a KGB detail pushed their way toward us and began pushing and shoving the people in the crowd. It was an interesting moment. It reminded me that while the man on the street in the Soviet Union yearns for peace, the government is Communist. And those who run it are Communists, and that means we and they view such issues as freedom and human rights very differently.

We must keep up our guard, but we must also continue to work together to lessen and eliminate tension and mistrust. My view is that President Gorbachev is different from previous Soviet leaders. I think he knows some of the things wrong with his society and is trying to fix them. We wish him well. And we'll continue to work to make sure that the Soviet Union that eventually emerges from this process is a less threatening one. What it all boils down to is this: I want the new closeness to continue. And it will, as long as we make it clear that we will continue to act in a certain way as long as they continue to act in a helpful manner. If and when they don't, at first pull your punches. If they persist, pull the plug. It's still trust by verify. It's still play, but cut the cards. It's still watch closely. And don't be afraid to see what you see.

I've been asked if I have any regrets. Well, I do.The deficit is one. I've been talking a great deal about that lately, but tonight isn't for arguments, and I'm going to hold my tongue. But an observation: I've had my share of victories in the Congress, but what few people noticed is that I never won anything you didn't win for me. They never saw my troops, they never saw Reagan's regiments, the American people. You won every battle with every call you made and letter you wrote demanding action. Well, action is still needed. If we're to finish the job. Reagan's regiments will have to become the Bush brigades. Soon he'll be the chief, and he'll need you every bit as much as I did.

Finally, there is a great tradition of warnings in Presidential farewells, and I've got one that's been on my mind for some time. But oddly enough it starts with one of the things I'm proudest of in the past 8 years: the resurgence of national pride that I called the new patriotism. This national feeling is good, but it won't count for much, and it won't last unless it's grounded in thoughtfulness and knowledge.

An informed patriotism is what we want. And are we doing a good enough job teaching our children what America is and what she represents in the long history of the world? Those of us who are over 35 or so years of age grew up in a different America. We were taught, very directly, what it means to be an American. And we absorbed, almost in the air, a love of country and an appreciation of its institutions. If you didn't get these things from your family you got them from the neighborhood, from the father down the street who fought in Korea or the family who lost someone at Anzio. Or you could get a sense of patriotism from school. And if all else failed you could get a sense of patriotism from the popular culture. The movies celebrated democratic values and implicitly reinforced the idea that America was special. TV was like that, too, through the mid-sixties.

But now, we're about to enter the nineties, and some things have changed. Younger parents aren't sure that an unambivalent appreciation of America is the right thing to teach modern children. And as for those who create the popular culture, well-grounded patriotism is no longer the style. Our spirit is back, but we haven't reinstitutionalized it. We've got to do a better job of getting across that America is freedom--freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise. And freedom is special and rare. It's fragile; it needs production [protection].

So, we've got to teach history based not on what's in fashion but what's important--why the Pilgrims came here, who Jimmy Doolittle was, and what those 30 seconds over Tokyo meant. You know, 4 years ago on the 40th anniversary of D-day, I read a letter from a young woman writing to her late father, who'd fought on Omaha Beach. Her name was Lisa Zanatta Henn, and she said, `we will always remember, we will never forget what the boys of Normandy did.' Well, let's help her keep her word. If we forget what we did, we won't know who we are. I'm warning of an eradication of the American memory that could result, ultimately, in an erosion of the American spirit. Let's start with some basics: more attention to American history and a greater emphasis on civic ritual.

And let me offer lesson number one about America: All great change in America begins at the dinner table. So, tomorrow night in the kitchen I hope the talking begins. And children, if your parents haven't been teaching you what it means to be an American, let 'em know and nail 'em on it. That would be a very American thing to do.

And that's about all I have to say tonight, except for one thing. The past few days when I've been at that window upstairs, I've thought a bit of the `shining city upon a hill.' The phrase comes from John Winthrop, who wrote it to describe the America he imagined. What he imagined was important because he was an early Pilgrim, an early freedom man. He journeyed here on what today we'd call a little wooden boat; and like the other Pilgrims, he was looking for a home that would be free. I've spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don't know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.

And how stands the city on this winter night? More prosperous, more secure, and happier than it was 8 years ago. But more than that: After 200 years, two centuries, she still stands strong and true on the granite ridge, and her glow has held steady no matter what storm. And she's still a beacon, still a magnet for all who must have freedom, for all the pilgrims from all the lost places who are hurtling through the darkness, toward home.

We've done our part. And as I walk off into the city streets, a final word to the men and women of the Reagan revolution, the men and women across America who for 8 years did the work that brought America back. My friends: We did it. We weren't just marking time. We made a difference. We made the city stronger, we made the city freer, and we left her in good hands. All in all, not bad, not bad at all.

And so, goodbye, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.

PRESIDENT REAGAN'S FAREWELL LETTER
Nov. 5, 1994

My Fellow Americans,

I have recently been told that I am one of the millions of Americans who will be afflicted with Alzheimer’s Disease.

Upon learning this news, Nancy and I had to decide whether as private citizens we would keep this a private matter or whether we would make this news known in a public way.

In the past Nancy suffered from breast cancer and I had my cancer surgeries. We found through our open disclosures we were able to raise public awareness. We were happy that as a result many more people underwent testing.

They were treated in early stages and able to return to normal, healthy lives.

So now, we feel it is important to share it with you. In opening our hearts, we hope this might promote greater awareness of this condition. Perhaps it will encourage a clearer understanding of the individuals and families who are affected by it.

At the moment I feel just fine. I intend to live the remainder of the years God gives me on this earth doing the things I have always done. I will continue to share life’s journey with my beloved Nancy and my family. I plan to enjoy the great outdoors and stay in touch with my friends and supporters.

Unfortunately, as Alzheimer’s Disease progresses, the family often bears a heavy burden. I only wish there was some way I could spare Nancy from this painful experience. When the time comes I am confident that with your help she will face it with faith and courage.

In closing let me thank you, the American people for giving me the great honor of allowing me to serve as your President. When the Lord calls me home, whenever that may be, I will leave with the greatest love for this country of ours and eternal optimism for its future.

I now begin the journey that will lead me into the sunset of my life. I know that for America there will always be a bright dawn ahead.

Thank you, my friends. May God always bless you.

Sincerely, Ronald Reagan




filed by Winston 5:09 PM
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Basic Governance, Abdicated?

This is sad. With both houses of Congress in their control the Republicans cannot even craft a compromise to get the most fundamental tasks of governance done. If you own both houses and cannot fashion a compromise, perhaps your position is too far to one side, eh? The NYT report that "Republicans Ponder Not Adopting A Budget This Year"

WASHINGTON, June 2 - They have tried sweet-talk and dire warnings,
insults and bluffing tactics. None of it has worked, which is why a
growing number of Republicans are beginning to despair about agreeing on
a budget plan for next year.

Embarrassing as that would be for the party that controls both houses
of Congress, many Republicans are concluding they would be better off
with no budget plan than with one that would require them to pay the
cost of permanently extending last year's tax cuts.

Senate Republican leaders, back from their Memorial Day recess, showed
little sign on Wednesday of persuading a small band of rebels within
their own party to drop their insistence on "pay as you go" rules.

The four Republican dissenters, joined by most Democrats, are demanding
rules that would force Congress to pay the cost of any new tax cuts
either with spending cuts or tax increases in other areas.

The impasse has already undermined President Bush's top domestic goal,
which is to make the tax cuts permanent, and it will apparently postpone
major budget decisions until after the elections.

It has also exposed a rift over Republican priorities: Is it more
important to cut taxes or to prevent the budget deficit from expanding
beyond its current level of about $400 billion?

The White House and House Republicans have staunchly opposed any such
restrictions, because permanently extending Mr. Bush's tax cuts would
cost about $1.7 trillion over the next 10 years.


But let's be fair - there are four moderates who cling to the former Republican value of fiscal responsibility.

In addition to Mr. McCain, the major Republican Senate holdouts are
Senators Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins, both of Maine, and Lincoln
Chafee of Rhode Island.


And Zell Miller, a democrat in name only, is not with them on this. This situation is the equivalent of the spoiled little kid(s) who say "If I can't have it ALL my way, I'll just take my toys and go home!" Again, its sad.


According to the study, by the Tax Policy Center and the Center on
Budget and Policy Priorities, more than three-quarters of all households
would end up net losers if the government actually paid for the tax cuts
by either spending cuts or other tax increases.

But the wealthiest one-fifth of families, who are by far the biggest
beneficiaries of the tax cuts, would end up big winners.


This is the cause for which Republicans want to scrap the PAYGO rules, installed to force discipline on Democrats and their spending desires when they ruled both houses. The chickens have come home to roost. It exposes the lie that Republicans are fiscally responsible.

Democrats have already made it clear they will vote to
extend at least temporarily three major tax cuts - an expansion of the
child tax credit, a reduction in the so-called "marriage penalty"
for two-income families and an expansion of the 10-percent tax bracket to
cover more middle-income taxpayers. Failing to adopt a budget resolution would make it harder to prevent lawmakers from adding pet spending projects. But the biggest issue for Republicans may simply be the embarrassment of not being able to pass a basic budget plan even though they control both chambers of Congress and the White House.


Perhaps they forgot that politics is the art of the possible. Nixon went to China, Clinton signed a welfare reform bill. These greedy Ba*****s can't compromise some? Sheer lunacy and fiscal irresponsibility. Reprehensible.

"It's optics," said one Republican aide. "The issue is, can the
Republicans do the most basic of things, which is to pass a budget?"


Amen.



filed by john 11:00 AM
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Friday, June 04, 2004
VETS PREFER BUSH - CBS FINALLY READS ITS POLL
Stinging Nettle is complaining about a CBS story headlined "
CBS Poll: Vets Favor Bush". This, of course, isn't news. Anyone who actually read the entire CBS Poll when it was released on May 24 knew about those numbers. But it took liberal CBS a week to notice. I'm conservative, and those numbers jumped out at me early, and I said at the time, "And CBS ignored another part of their poll, showing that veterans prefer Bush by a greater margin than the general[] electorate -- that's something I'd have highlighted as an editor." I guess liberals were content if CBS just never mentioned them.

But DrFrankLives asks "Quick, what is the main news in this story?", answering his question with the question: "Is it 'Veterans prefer Bush' or 'Public prefers Kerry 49-41'?"

No, DrFrank, the main news from that poll was trumpeted over a week ago by CBS, when it said "Poll: Iraq Taking Toll On Bush". DrFrank noticed and cheered the story, making no complaint about CBS's editorial decision to highlight Bush's low approval ratings.

CBS's second headlining story on the May 23rd poll continued to focus on the Kerry positive and the Bush negative, delving into the world of fantasy: "Poll: McCain/Kerry Ticket A Winner".

But we are informed today by the Stinging-Nettle that CBS can be exonerated of any charges of leaning to port because it took them 12 days to find what I saw right away, that John "I fought in Vietnam" Kerry is not the preferred choice of veterans.

Liberals often complain that conservatives are stuck in the past and want to bring it back. Well, at least we can remember it.

filed by Winston 2:13 PM
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MORE ECONOMIC GOOD NEWS
The Economy added jobs
yet again in May. From the AP:
U.S. employers added almost a quarter million workers in May, extending a nine-month hiring spree and accommodating enough new jobseekers to hold the unemployment rate steady at 5.6 percent.

Payrolls swelled by almost 1 million in the last three months alone, the Labor Department said Friday. Employment figures for March and April were revised up to reflect the addition of 353,000 and 346,000 jobs respectively.
Let's breakdown the numbers.

Household Survey Job Change (unadjusted)
Since Bush Took Office: +2,686,000
Since Bush's First Budget: +2,058,000
Last 9 months: +730,000
Since last month: +444,000

Household Survey Job Change (adjusted)
Since Bush Took Office: +982,000
Since Bush's First Budget: +2,458,000
Last 9 months: +1,079,000
Since last month: +196,000

Establishment Survey Job Change (unadjusted)
Since Bush Took Office: +1,481,000
Since Bush's First Budget: +301,000
Last 9 months: +2,402,000
Since last month: +939,000

Establishment Survey Job Change (adjusted) - the most reported numbers
Since Bush Took Office: -1,164,000
Since Bush's First Budget: -607,000
Last 9 months: +1,485,000
Since last month: +248,000

filed by Winston 10:11 AM
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Thursday, June 03, 2004
GEORGE "SLAM DUNK" TENET RESIGNS
So, who's going to be DCI next? How long before Kerry suggests John McCain (or some other popular Republican with whom he disagrees on most issues) for the job?

filed by Winston 4:34 PM
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HERE'S A HEADLINE FOR JAY LENO:

Same-sex partners demand action


filed by Hank 8:26 AM
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Wednesday, June 02, 2004
RAINES ON KERRY
Howell Raines, former editor of The New York Times and constant target of conservatives claiming media bias, has
written an article for the UK's The Guardian about Kerry's troubles. One telling thing about it's author and his biases is this statement:
As America's first war-hero candidate since John F Kennedy . . .
Only a liberal would forget Bob Dole's bronze star and two purple hearts (for much more severe injuries than John Kerry's) and George H.W. Bush's three Air Medals and Distinguished Flying Cross. Was he trying to directly equate John Kerry and John Kennedy and didn't want to lessen the impact with comparisons to Republicans? Or did he just not remember the Republicans because, well, they are Republicans? Whether intentional or not, it is still bias.

filed by Winston 3:22 PM
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NO STRINGS ATTACHED
The best thing for Iraq right now is to have a leader that is not seen by Iraqis as a puppet of the U.S., so that power-hungry islamofascists, religious supremacists, would-be theocratic dictators and racists won't have a recruiting tool for their murderous campaigns. Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawar is saying all of the right things. Some
excerpts:
There was pressure and offers of other positions in return for my stepping down as presidential nominee and I did not accept any of them.

It was very clear that I was not preferred by the coalition authorities and I have no links to the American administration.

The reason for the three-day delay in announcing the name of the president is the pressure on me to give up my right for nomination as president.
And it is even better that he makes it clear the U.S. didn't even like him.

Everything is proceeding according to plan.

filed by Winston 11:39 AM
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Tuesday, June 01, 2004
KERRY SURGE FALLS SHORT
Bush 47.77% - 274 | Kerry 48.52% - 264

From the May 11 to the May 18 Composite Polls, there was a net change of 4.13% in favor of Kerry, taking him from a deficit of 1.41% to a lead of 2.72% -- the highest lead for either candidate since I began tracking the numbers on March 8. Since the Composite Poll methodology constrains weekly swings by factoring in the previous week's composite result, this should be seen as a significant swing to Kerry. That week, Kerry led by 5 in the CNN/Time poll, 4 in the Zogby poll and 1 in the Newsweek poll.

Since then, his lead has shrunk each week. To 2.38% on May 25, and now to 0.75%. What looked like a real surge for Kerry has pulled back to dead even.

And the Electoral Vote prediction is back to 2000, with Kerry gaining only New Hampshire. Welcome to the status quo.

During Kerry's surge, he had taken a lead in the Electoral Vote Prediction, 284-254. But this week, Bush jumps back ahead by the slimmest of margins, 274-264. The difference was the
recent Mason Dixon Ohio Poll, showing a Bush lead in that all important Battleground of 6 points. Coming two weeks after an American Research Group poll giving Kerry a 7 point lead in Ohio, and therefore, weighted more heavily, the Composite Poll analysis gives Bush a meaningless lead in Ohio of 0.27%. If Ohio is that close on November 2, you better hope you paced yourself and didn't take too many shots early that night.

And Ohio is why I've changed the map coloring scheme. Any state in which I predict a margin of less than 2%, I'll color white. What's the use in calling it Lean Kerry or Lean Bush when it's going to continue to fluctuate like Cesium 133? The bottom line numbers will still predict a fully allocated electoral vote, but you'll be able to get the details, as usually, at the bottom of the Composite Poll page.

I'll also start reporting a few more numbers this week from the Composite Poll. In the numbers that I highlight, I allocate the undecideds. From now on, I'll give you the raw numbers before that allocation. In addition, I'll also give you an estimated actual popular vote based on the individual state analysis. As I explain in the methodology, the Composite Poll avergage of national polls is used to help determine the margin of lead in each state. But state polls are also used. Thus, the Resulting Popular Vote includes not just national polls, but also the effect of state polls. Here are the numbers.

Raw Composite Poll
Bush 43.8 | Kerry 43.8 | Nader 3.7 | Undecided 8.6

Composite Poll (allocating undecided)
Bush 47.77 | Kerry 48.52 | Nader 3.7

Resulting Two-Party Popular Vote (after state by state analysis)
Bush 50.34 | Kerry 49.66

And, just for fun -
Red States - Bush 55.5 | Kerry 44.5
Blue States - Bush 45.5 | Kerry 54.6

Now to this week's map and the numbers on the Composite Poll page.


filed by Winston 10:43 PM
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PBA BAN OVERTURNED
If you believed the Partial Birth Abortion ban wouldn't be overturned by a lifetime Clinton appointee,
you were naive. Once again, we see our democratic republic really isn't.

But decide for yourself and read the opinion. Determine for yourself if what the opinion describes is a Constitutional right and whether Congress should or shouldn't be able to ban this procedure. You may notice the simple solution is to make sure the fetus is "disarticulated" or an action is taken "to effect fetal demise" prior to emergence of the head or trunk of the fetus from the mother.

It seems to me the PBA ban is rather meaningless, just like a ban on assault weapons. Each makes its proponents feel good, sends its opponents into hysterics, but does not address the real purpose of its proponents - the elimination of legal abortion and gun ownership.

filed by Winston 3:47 PM
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Sunday, May 30, 2004
Nobody's VP
McCain made a great joke on Conan O'Brien the other night. Asked about being a VP candidate he said something to the effect of having been a prisoner of war where they kept him in the dark and fed him scraps, why would he want to repeat the experience as VP? Can't blame him.

I like the thought of him as SecDef in Kerry's cabinet with Wes Clarke as the Deputy. Wouldn't THAT make the doctrine-bound senior officer corps quake in its collective boots?

filed by john 8:42 PM
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Buyer's Remorse.....without Alternative

Sure, I now wish we had nominated John Edwards. Kerry is a cadaver of a candidate - much as Bob Dole was in '96. But hey, Dole didn't have an opponent hell-bent on self destruction. Co-Presidents Cheney&Rove may still find a way to right the candidate Bush, but for the first time my hopes have risen above the Mendoza line. Kerry has not actively capitalized, but has followed the Lee Atwater's advice, "When your opponent is busy hanging himself - don't interfere." So far, so good.

Reagan told America to ask itself "Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?" The jobs picture is improving but still well over a million below the end of the Clinton era. Stocks are little better. Current deficits make Reagan and Bush 41 look good - no easy feat. Yes, there have been needed increases in defense spending, but this administration abdicated fiscal responsibility long before 9-11.

Look at the 2001 Transportation and Agriculture bills. Look at the unwillingness to include war costs in budget estimates. Look at the shameless tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans while the lower classes who make up the ground forces are deployed to Iraq for an elective war (whatever your opinions of the war, there's no arguing who does the grunt work and the bulk of the dying).

I fully expect W. to make up some ground and wouldn't be at all suprised if Kerry finds a way to step on his d**k and blow this important election. But for just a few weeks, its good to have hope again. My Republican friends, I encourage you to chime in on why my hopes are unfounded ( I'll likely agree with you, but please try to do better than "it's early!". I can do that on my own.)

I'll give you a head start - the gay marraige referendums will bring out wack-social Repubs who have been disenchanted with W. but won't fail to vote for him once they've come out to show their intolerance for gays....Redistricting has been accelerated from the usual 10-year cycle (legally?...who cares right? .. it's all about what you can get away with) to grossly favor Republicans.

Other reasons? Hit me.

filed by john 8:14 PM
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