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MEANINGLESS COMPLAINTS
In a further effort to score political points, two attacks are being made on John Kerry that I believe are meaningless and distract from the many substantive reasons that John Kerry shouldn't be President.

First, some law student has filed a complaint with the Senate because the secretary of the Senate isn't docking Kerry's pay for his absences from the upper chamber, where he has voted only 14 times and missed 98 votes in the last few months while campaigning. And the Lt. Governor of Massachussetts wants Kerry to resign so the Republican governor can appoint someone who "is 100 percent devoted to the job of representing the people of Massachusetts". Yes, I know that Dole "did the right thing" and resigned to focus on his campaign, but I really think it is unreasonable to expect Senators to resign while campaigning for President. Everyone knows the first rule of looking for a new job is that you don't quit your current one until you get the new one. Does this say anything particularly bad about Kerry's character that he has been absent from the Senate? I don't think so. Any arguments about missed votes should focus on whether Kerry's non-vote made a difference or undermined his stated position on an issue, or was an effort to dodge an issue and not take a position.

And the second attack is that he is only considering millionaires for vice president. The argument will be made that "how can Kerry pretend to represent the common man when he is rich and only wants rich people to serve as vice president?" This is no different than the argument that only those who have been shot at while serving in the army can legitimately support military action, also known as the Chickenhawk argument. You don't have to be poor to be able to empathize with and help the poor. These are distractions from substantive issues and are designed only to score cheap political points. And that is what politics has devolved into. Simplistic attacks on motivations and the irrelevant at the expense of a real discussion of real issues.

I'm not immune from making such cheap shots, but I want to do a better of job of getting at the substance of things and avoiding the easy political jab. P.J. O'Rourke recently had a good article on similar themes.

THE OSCILLATING RACE
Bush 47.17% - 256 | Kerry 48.66% - 282
Last week, Kerry lead the composite poll by 1.54% and this week, he leads by 1.49%, but the electoral vote picture has switched from last week's Bush lead of 281-257 to a Kerry lead of 282-256. While the state by state picture continues to oscillate between the candidates, there's been a clear trend in Kerry's favor in the national composite results, but that trend has slowed and for the last month, there hasn't been much change.

This week's composite poll includes the suspicious LA Times poll, showing a Kerry lead of 6 points. I discussed why it is suspicious here.Without that poll's results, the composite poll would show a dead even race.

This week's analysis includes 9 new state polls for Illinois (Kerry +13), Kentucky (Bush +13), Michigan (Kerry +2), Missouri (Bush +11), New Hampshire (Tied), Ohio (Kerry +3), Pennsylvania (Kerry +1), West Virginia (Kerry +6) and Wisconsin (Bush +2).

Bush State Gains
None

Kerry State Gains
Ohio

West Virginia

Toss Ups (slight lead of less than 2%)
Florida (Bush)
New Hampshire (Kerry)*NEW*
New Mexico (Kerry)
Ohio (Kerry)
Oregon (Bush)
Pennsylvania (Kerry)
West Virginia (Kerry) *NEW*

For details, maps and graphs, see the Composite Poll page.

CORNERED RODENTS
If true, a recent letter purportedly from terrorist and islamofascist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is evidence of the good work or our troops and Iraqi security forces. From CNN:

"The space of movement is starting to get smaller," [the letter] said. "The grip is starting to be tightened on the holy warriors' necks and, with the spread of soldiers and police, the future is becoming frightening."

The are getting desparate as they try to bring about a civil war.

The statement puts the Iraqi militants' enemies into four categories: the Americans, the Kurds, Iraqi police and soldiers; and the Shiites. Of the Shiites, it says: "If we succeed in dragging them into sectarian war, we could wake up the Sunnis."

Meanwhile, President Ghazi al-Yawar works the other side of the argument and explains how a democracy works

I kept on saying consistently that if I were in [Moqtada al Sadr's] shoes I would try to go to the political arena instead of raising arms. He has supporters, he has constituents, he should go through the political process"

According to Reuters, al Sadr has given "Iraq's new government conditional approval and said he planned to set up a political party that could contest national elections due to be held by January."

More good news.

THAT LA TIMES POLL
Last week, the LA Times ran a poll showing a widening Kerry lead (46-42), which it headlined "Voters Shift in Favor of Kerry" The Drudge Report is trumpeting its discovery that the LA Times sample included 38% Democrats and 25% Republicans. It was clear that something was strange because the data showed Bush leading among Republicans (92-4) by a greater margin than Kerry led among Democrats (86-7). Bush also led among Independents (43-41).

Often, when trying to determine who are likely voters, pollsters will adjust their data based on a model of predicted turnout by party. If the turnout is likely to be 38% Democrat and 25% Republican, then the LA Times has it right. But that turnout model is unlikely.

According to a 2003 survey, the Pew Research Center for People and the Press reported that 31% of Americans identify themselves as Republicans and 30% as Democrats. Had the LA Times sample been 31% Republicans and 30% Democrats, then the LA Times would have reported that "Voters Shift in Favor of Bush", with the following results:

Bush 47% | Kerry 43% | Nader 5%

In 1996, Zogby had success with a turnout model of 34.5% Democrat and 34% Republican. Applying those numbers gives this result:

Bush 47% | Kerry 44% | Nader 4%

From 1997-2000, the Pew Research Center reports party identification of 33% Democrat and 27% Republican. Weighting the results based on those values:

Bush 44% | Kerry 45% | Nader 5%

I don't know what a good turnout model is, but I suspect that the LA Times is way off. I can't seem to find more recent data on party identification or even on voter turnout by party in 2000. If you can find it, please add a comment.

**UPDATE**: According to 2000 exit polling, turnout for that election was 39% Democrat and 35% Republican. Applying those numbers to the LA TIMES data gives the following results:

Bush 46% | Kerry 45% | Nader 4%

BUSH HONORS FORMER PRESIDENT
Read the whole thing at the White House:

a candidate for any office, whether it be the state attorney general or the President, Bill Clinton showed incredible energy and great personal appeal. As chief executive, he showed a deep and far-ranging knowledge of public policy, a great compassion for people in need, and the forward-looking spirit the Americans like in a President. Bill Clinton could always see a better day ahead -- and Americans knew he was working hard to bring that day closer.

Over eight years, it was clear that Bill Clinton loved the job of the presidency. He filled this house with energy and joy. He's a man of enthusiasm and warmth, who could make a compelling case and effectively advance the causes that drew him to public service.

It gives some hope that maybe civility could return to politics.