YOU'D THINK A GUY THIS RICH COULD AFFORD A TISSUE II

VOTE DEMOCRATIC
If you live in Tennesee's 8th Congressional District, vote for the Democrat. The GOP decided not to field a candidate against incumbent Rep. John Tanner, so some boneheaded racist decided to call himself a Republican and filed to run. He was the only person in the GOP primary, and now he's the nominee. That's just plain embarrassing.

PROBABILITY KERRY WILL WIN ELECTION
I've updated my Election Simulation. I'll explain in more detail when I get a chance how I've created it, but basically, using my composite results by state and the standard deviation in polling by state (to represent how each state has swung around in its opinion since March of this year), I construct probabilities for each state, then run a monte carlo simulation of 20,000 elections.

With the latest state polling, showing Kerry increasing his lead in several states, the current probability of him winning enough electoral votes to seal the deal is 70.8%.

Thus, out of 20,000 trial elections, Kerry wins 14,165 of them. Bush win 5,593 and there are 242 ties.

See the numbers and the state by state probabilities here.

Happy Friday, you liberals.

GAFFES AND BULLSHIT
John Kerry (Aug. 5, 2004): Had I been reading to children and had my top aide whispered in my ear, 'America is under attack,' I would have told those kids very politely and nicely that the president of the United States had something that he needed to attend to -- and I would have attended to it.

John Kerry (July 8, 2004): [W]e'd just come into a leadership meeting in Tom Daschle's office, looking out at the Capitol. And as I came in, Barbara Boxer and Harry Reid were standing there, and we watched the second plane come in to the building. And we shortly thereafter sat down at the table and then we just realized nobody could think, and then boom, right behind us, we saw the cloud of explosion at the Pentagon.

As Red State notes: "[T]he second plane hit the World Trade Center at 9:03 a.m., and the plane hit the Pentagon at 9:43 a.m. By Kerry's own words, he and his fellow senators sat there for forty minutes, realizing 'nobody could think.' In other words: Sen. Kerry, who criticized President Bush for not rushing out of the Florida classroom for seven minutes, sat paralyzed with his colleagues for a full forty minutes. He is hardly in a position to criticize President Bush for 'inaction.'"

Thanks to Jamz for pointing me to National Review and Red State.

George W. Bush: Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.

We know he meant that we never stop thinking of ways that the terrorists might try to hurt us.

John Kerry: [W]hen Mr. King gets dragged behind of a truck down in Texas by chains and his body is mutilated only because he's gay--I think that's a matter of rights in the United States of America.

Although Mr. King was the dragger and not the draggee, and Mr. Byrd was black and not gay, I guess we know what he meant too.

RAPID RESPONSE

John Kerry's "high road" campaign: First of all, had I been reading to children and had my top aide whisper in my ear, 'America is under attack,' I would have told those kids very politely and nicely that the president of the United States had something that he needed to attend to.

Rudolph Giuliani: John Kerry must be frustrated in his campaign if he is armchair quarterbacking based on cues from Michael Moore. John Kerry is an indecisive candidate who has demonstrated an inconsistent position on the War on Terror, who voted against funding for our troops at war and who cannot give a clear answer on his position concerning the decision to remove Saddam Hussein.

THE NEW YORK TIMES AND 527s
Jim Geraghty of National Review Online notices something peculiar about The New York Times' coverage of 527s attacking Bush and 527s attacking Kerry. Which one do you reckon is tied to "Republican donors" and which story makes it clear that the 527s aren't working for the presidential candidate? Scroll down to "THE TIMES AND 527 ATTACK ADS FOR KERRY".

AND NOW, SOME SUBSTANCE
George Will has some questions for John Kerry. I wonder if any reporter will ask him. Here's an excerpt, but read the whole thing:

Regarding military action, your platform says ``we will never wait for a green light from abroad when our safety is at stake.'' But the platform's preceding paragraph denounces President Bush's ``doctrine of unilateral pre-emption.'' If unilateralism is wrong, are you not committed to some sort of ``green light from abroad''?

Are you glad that in 1981 Israel set back Iraq's nuclear weapons program with a unilateral pre-emptive attack on the reactor near Baghdad?

THERE IS A BOUNCE
Bush 47.4% – 242 EV | Kerry 50.4% – 296 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 200| Kerry 253| Toss 85
as of August 3, 2004

With conflicting results in different polls and most showing changes within the margin of error, it's difficult to tell if Kerry/Edwards got any bounce from their convention. Clearly, they did. Although it is certainly not as large a bounce as we have seen historically, that should be no surprise with as few people reportedly undecided as we have in this year of polarization.

Although many polls show changes within their own margins of error, when several polls move in the same direction, the odds are that there has been real movement. The meta analysis techniques employed in the Composite Poll confirm that movement. From the pre-Convention Composite Poll to Tuesday, August 8, Kerry gained 1.4 points and Bush lost 0.5. That equals the biggest one week swing since we started this analysis on March 8. Kerry now leads by 3 points. A respectable lead in such a close race.

While much has been made about the odd results of the USA Today / Gallup Poll, I note that it has traditionally been the most stable poll this year, and its weekly variance from the weekly mean has been generally to Kerry's favor by 0.4 points (i.e., it is barely more Kerry favorable on the average). Any suggestion that the Gallup poll is generally pro-Bush is simply untrue. However, it is possible that this week's poll is a bad sample. But the nature of polling is such that 5% of the time, you can get ridiculous results. Alternatively, there's a chance that Gallup is the only one with the correct turnout model. Personally, I think it's reasonable to discount this week's results as an outlier - showing Bush with a 4 point lead.

State polling trails the national poll numbers by a few days, so state polls taken after the convention are only now starting to come out. Check back next week to see if Kerry's bump shows up in the Electoral College.

Click here for all the numbers and the Election Simulation.

SWIFT BOATS VETS AGAINST KERRY
Drudge teases the new book, Unfit for Command by John E. O'Neill. The charges are pretty serious, so they had damn well better have first hand, eyewitness knowledge of what they claim. If so, the charges should be taken seriously and debated and voters can make a decision about whether these 30 year old actions, if true, should matter to our selection of a President today. Kerry's campaign has already taken a position that his actions in Vietnam do matter.

UPDATE: A look at the potential political ramifications is at Deep Thoughts with Tyler - a brand-spanking new blog.

All add a Democratic view when I find one.

WHAT IT WAS, WAS FOOTBALL
John Kerry tells a Michigan crowd that "I just go for Buckeye football, that's where I'm coming from." After hearing the boos from the Democratic crowd, he adds this priceless bit or oration, "But that was while I was in Ohio. I know I'm in the state of Michigan and you got a great big M and a powerhouse of a team."

And I thought the other guy was supposed to be the moron.

Kind of reminds me how he tells Arabs he hates the Israeli wall and Israelis that he likes it. I wonder how often he forgets who he is pandering to.

AL QAEDA PLANS ATTACKS DURING RNC
An al Qaeda operative in British custody has told British intelligence that September 2 is the day al Qaeda is planning to strike in the U.S., according to this article. That just happens to be the day President Bush gives his speech at the Republican National Convention. Will Howard Dean and the tinfoil hat left complain about the timing? Or will they focus on defeating our enemies?

KERRY THE LEADER
I wondered before the convention that, if Kerry is such a Leader, why was he never a Leader in the Senate. I know you can't find a lot of Kerry Bills or Kerry Amendments after 20 years in the upper chamber, although you can probably find a number of bills he scribbled his name on as a co-sponsor to someone else's initiative. But as a Leader, you'd think he might have worked with George Mitchell or Tom Daschle of Harry Reid in the Leadership.

But there are other ways to Lead in the Senate. Perhaps he was working behind the scenes to get things done, or to stop things from getting done. Think Patrick Leahy on judicial appointments or Jesse Helms on the Foreign Affairs committee. But then there's this disturbing recollection of Dick Morris (obviously not a Kerry guy, but he was there):

Oddly, his absence of biography confirms the impression I formed of him during my White House years: He's a back-bencher. I never can recall a single time that his name came up in any discussion of White House strategy on anything. He was the man who wasn't there. We were always figuring out how to deal with Ted Kennedy or Pat Moynihan or Tom Daschle or Phil Gramm, or Al D'Amato or Bob Dole or Jesse Helms or Orin Hatch or Joe Biden. But nobody every asked about John Kerry.

A non-entity in the Senate, apparently, which explains why so little was said about his time in the Gang of 100 during the DNC.

If you are looking for real Leader who can get others to rally by his side -- a skill that would have been severely tested in the Senate, you have to wonder what it is about John Kerry that shows he's the Real Deal™, a Leader. If it's the 4 months on a Swift Boat, then the bar is mighty low. And then you'd better pay closer attention to all of those who served with him, and led him.

Then Mark Steyn explains how Kerry is good at something that has to do with Leadership. Following.

He talks about an America "strong" and "respected" and all the other poll-tested words, while the Democratic platform asserts that Republicans "do not understand that real leadership means standing by your principles and rallying others to join you".
Say what you like about Bush, but on Iraq he stood by his principles and rallied the British, Australians, Poles, Italians, etc, to join him. He also rallied Kerry and Edwards to join him. They voted for his war, as the columnist Debra Saunders of The San Francisco Chronical drolly pointed out: "Kerry and Edwards followed. Bush led."

Kerry now says that Bush "misled" him on Iraq. But, if he was that easily suckered by a renowned moron, how much more susceptible would he be to such wily operators as Chirac.

What Democrats truly want is not a Leader. A Leader challenges you to do something. To follow him where you might not, on your own, go. To reform the middle east and address the root causes of terrorism. No, they want someone who will sit back and do less. Someone who won't take controversial stands and force the public to make tough decisions about a dangerous world. Someone who leads by following.

They have their man.

Ithaca Police Chief Chosen: Quotas Trump Experience, Again

ITHACA--According to the Ithaca Journal, the former aerobics instructor/Democrat who Ithacans voted their Mayor recently has named a new police chief.

To the surprise of absolutely no one who knows how Ithaca operates, Mayor Carolyn Peterson passed over the popular and highly qualified John Beau Saul to appoint Lauren Signer, the controversal former "Acting Chief" to the post.

Signer spent much of her tenure in that position attending topless protests and was accused of assaulting a resident during a roadside incident, resulting in a $1.25 million lawsuit being filed.

However, Signer also has a history of suing for sex discrimination, so her appointment to the post was probably a fait acompli...especially in the most liberal city in America.

KERRY'S BEAUTIFUL DAY
The Screw Copyrights crowd should be pleased with John Kerry, who, according to The Mirror (sorry, can't find the link) has been using U2's song "Beautiful Day" as his campaign theme song -- without permission or license from U2. Of course, I would suspect this would be OK with Bono, but you can't just assume such before stealing someone's property. Some key lines from the song, perhaps appropriate to it's current use:

You're out of luck
And the reason that you had to care
The traffic is stuck
And you're not moving anywhere
. . .
You're on the road
But you've got no destination
You're in the mud
In a maze of her imagination

DELAYED COMPOSITE POLL UPDATE
I see that a lot of folks are anxious for a Composite Poll update. It will arrive on Tuesday. I just want to make sure I have all the national details and state polls before the definitive post-convention "bounce" numbers are worked up and ready for display. Based on current results, I believe the Composite Analysis will show that Kerry maintains an electoral lead and earns a small bounce. But we'll see when I have all the numbers tomorrow.

Stay tuned.

LET'S START A BAND
It I had a garage band, I might call it The Cadaver Dogs. I bet I'm not the only one.

ABC CHANGES SAMPLE, SHOWS KERRY BOUNCE
Before the Democratic Convention, the ABC / Washington Post poll showed a Bush lead, 50-46. That sample was 34% Democrat, 33% Republican and 29% Independent. Not too far off of the turnout model in 2000.

ABC's new poll shows a Kerry lead of 49-47 among likely voters. This new sample is skewed a wee bit more to the Democrats. 40% Democrat, 32% Republican, 24% Independent. So, let's see. Before the convention, with 1 point advantage built into the sample, Kerry trailed by 4. Now, with an 8 point advantage built into the sample, Kerry leads by 2. I'm not sure these numbers are very good for the Kerry campaign.

KERRY'S PLAN FOR IRAN
Kerry's got a plan to stop Iran's nuclear program. He wants to give them nuclear fuel. As I recall, this was the Clinton/Carter North Korea strategy, which, you will recall, was a rousing success. Little Green Footballs has the details (complete with links to Kerry's site).

And Jay Reding discusses Kerry's plan for the War on Terror™, summing up thusly: "Either Kerry will have to flip-flop on preemption again (which he undoubtedly will) or he’ll have to stand on a policy position that confirms that he’s incapable of leading in the post-September 11 world. In either case, it shows how Kerry is fundamentally unable to lead."

BOUNCE? SLIM TO NONE
Three polls have come out in the last week and the jury is still out on whether there was a bounce.

In the Zogby poll of likely voters, taken July 26-29 - during the convention but before Kerry's speech - Bush lost 3 points from 44 to 41 and Kerry lost one point from 47 to 46. Net change. Kerry +2. With a margin of error of +-3, this could be statistical noise.

Newsweek shows a small "bounce" in its poll taken over 2 days, on July 29-30, so some of its results may take into account Kerry's convention speech. Newsweek only polled "registered" voters and didn't concern itself with whether they were likely to vote. In this poll, Kerry leads 49-42. Bush lost 2 points from 44 and Kerry gained 2 points from 47. With a margin of error of +-4, this could be statistical noise. (It's interesting to note that Newsweek's numbers are consistent with a turnout model of 35% Dems, 28% Reps and 37% Inds. In 2000, the turnout was 38% Dem, 37% Rep and 25% Ind. Applying that turnout model to Newsweek's numbers, you get Kerry 47, Bush 46).

Gallup shows the largest "bounce", but it's for Bush. It's poll was taken July 30-31 - taken fully after Kerry's speech on Thursday. Bush gained 4 points from 46 to 50, and Kerry lost a point from 47 to 46. With a margin of error of +-4 points, this, too, could be statistical noise.

Rasmussen's tracking poll for August 1, with results from July 29-30, shows Kerry up 49-45. Through the day before the convention, Kerry lead 47-46. Could be statistical noise - but it's better up than down for Kerry.

In any case, there's not much of a "bounce", if any, but that shouldn't be suprising with so few people reporting that they are undecided.

So, where's the race really stand? Tune in tomorrow for the Composite Analysis, which will put all the numbers together for you.