Federal Review Dot Com

KERRY - 75% PROBABILITY OF WIN
New numbers in the simulation. Whatever, this is how things stand now, without taking into account, of course, what happens between now and November.

I love the people at Gallup, mainly because they show my guy in the lead - 48-46. Once they start showing him behind, I can start complaining about "special sauce" and "turnout models" when the numbers go the other way. Like Pew. What's up with them?

Anyway, Gallup has Bush's job approval at 51%. According to USA Today, "No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost." Don't get cocky. In 1993, Michigan was 30-1 when leading at the 5 minute mark. They finished the season 30-2. But still, I'm glad one of those polling rules o' thumb is going Bush's way for a change.

And remember, Dukakis led by 17 at this point in 1988. Sure, the electorate may be different this year. But so is the Democratic candidate.

TIME TO START EATING OUR YOUNG?
Sometimes I'm a little more negative, a bit more likely to behold the dark grey clouds of despair. Today is one of those days, with polls in Michigan and NJ sliding those states even more solidly in Senator Swifty's column, and one in Florida has the Cambodian War Vet up 6. At times like this, I even see something on DailyKos and think, maybe that's right. Of course, DailyKos is enough to put anyone into a funk, but here's what the left sayeth:

Superficially, W's position doesn't look that bad. He enjoys the agenda-setting advantages of incumbency, an adequate war chest, pliant media, an approaching convention bounce, control of Congress and the year-end pork cycle. Not bad cards to hold against a small deficit in the polls.

But GOP are not just behind a little in the polls. They're in simultaneous arrears on multiple accounts. They have almost enough rope. Almost enough duct tape. Almost enough time and skill. No single deficit looks insurmountable.

The fun starts when they have to fashion a particular rope bridge to get a particular herd of elephants across a particular chasm -- in this case, a Great Divide where giant mutant chickens are coming home to roost.

That's when Team Bush turns its energy to stretching and borrowing and corner-cutting ... followed by grunting and cursing and finger-pointing ... and finally frantic speculation about weaving ropes out of elephant hide, or building a catapult instead of a bridge.

As GOP outfitters double-check their charts and gear, take stock of provisions, and calculate pack weight versus burn rate -- they're in for a rapid succession of rude awakenings.

I remember the self-destruction of 1992. Yeah, I know, Clinton was more likeable than Mr. Less-Competent-than-Dukakis-more-exciting-than-Mondale. But still, a reasonably close race just went all to hell in a few weeks because Bush 41's guys just had no clue what to do.

And I don't have that much confidence in the presumed genius of Mr. Rove. After all, he lost the popular vote and barely won the electoral vote. Against an annoying, self-important dimwit with more baggage than a new mother sitting next to you on an overseas flight and more personalities than Sybill. Lee Atwater was a campaign genius. Karl Rove needs to lock up over 300 before anyone should even think about using that term with him.

Perhaps the convention will straighten me out. Or maybe a few drinks.

ALIEN LITTER
Russian scientists think they found an "Extraterrestrial Device" at the site of the 1908 Tunguska explosion. What the hell is an Extraterrestrial Device? You'd think they might elaborate a little!

NEW FAVORITE WEBSITE
It's called BlameBush! It's the funniest thing I have read in a long time. Beats the Onion. Embarrasses Scrappleface. Makes P.J. O'Rourke look in the mirror and wonder how he turned out so damn humorless. A sample about Tommy Franks' new book:

Sure, he got three Purple Hearts, but it took him FORTY YEARS TO GET THEM! What's the matter, Tommy Boy? Bashful? Afraid to get in there and kick the ball around a little? That's alright. TRUE men of valor like John Kerry will take up the slack. It only took Iron Guts Kerry four months to get his three Purple Hearts, plus a Bronze Star, and a Silver Star. Do the math: if Kerry had stuck around for 40 years, he'd have 3600 Purple Hearts, and 120 Bronze and Silver Stars. It would take him a solid month to toss that many medals at the Capitol Building.
. . .
Audie Murphy was the most decorated American soldier of WW2. He was awarded every medal for valor the military had, including a Purple Heart with two clusters. This guy would kill 14 Germans with a pen knife while sitting on the latrine. Yet it took him THREE (count 'em) YEARS to get all those medals. Three years for John Kerry would factor out to 27 Purple Hearts and 7 Congressional Medals of Honor. He'd have so many Bronze and Silver Stars, they'd have to start pinning them on John Edwards.

Even liberals have to see the humor in this.

PROUD DADDY OF RINK RAT
This does not involve politics, so feel free to go about your business. My 3 1/2 year old son started his first day of hockey lessons, as a "Rink Rat" today (not to be confused with "Democ Rat"). His mom tells me that he was assisted onto the ice by another boy's father. Some guy named Paul Maurice. Coach Maurice was impressed with my son's skating ability and marveled that he was even better than his own 5 year old.

This is especially thrilling to someone as lacking in grace and athleticism as I. A word of advice to the pre-school hockey set from the Coach: dispense with all pads but the shin guards. Apparently, it's just too hard to learn with the rest on. But don't sue him if there's an injury.

KERRY COUNTS ON MEDIA BIAS?

The American Spectator (last item) reports that John Kerry's campaign is not overly concerned about the "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" movement.

The reason? Not the truth (or lack thereof) in the allegations, but the fact that the campaign believes the media is too liberal to give much coverage on the allegations:

"'the media wouldn't have the nerve to come at us with this kind of stuff...the media is committed to seeing us win this thing.'"

When even the Democrats think the media is liberal is the debate on bias over?

VIETNAM VERACITY
The centerpiece of John Kerry's campaign for President - his 4 months in Vietnam - is again presenting reliability questions for Kerry. Maybe his recount of his valor on the swiftboat is closer to the truth than the many other veterans of the conflicts at issue, but it seems pretty clear that Kerry has been repeating the same lie for years, about being illegally in Cambodia at Christmas 1968, while listening to the President (which later statements show he likely meant Nixon) on the radio saying that U.S. troops were not in Cambodia -- thus, his mistrust of government pronouncements and decision to fight the war upon returning home.

Apparently, Kerry was not in Cambodia. For a cite to the Congressional Record and to further your research, start with Instapundit.

Maybe one day everyone will talk about today's issues, but as long as Kerry is running on those 4 months and not his Senate record, this is fair game.

UPDATE: A defense of Kerry and the Silver Star incident. As Just One Minute opines, it is "a heckof a lot more interesting than, John O'Neill is a partisan hack,and where are Bush's payroll stubs?