KERRY WIN PROBABILITY PLUNGES
Based on recent national and especially state polling, Kerry's win probability has plunged from around 75% last week to only 53% today. While there's only a 1% chance of a tie in the Electoral College, the average electoral votes received by each candidate over 20,000 trials is 269, and the 95% confidence range for each candidate's electoral vote total is 201-337 (i.e., if the election were held today, there's a 95% probability that each candidate's electoral vote total would be within this range).

Since last Tuesday's simulation, all states that have had changes in win probability of more than 5% have moved in Bush's favor. For the details, see the Election Simulation.

For recent state polls, check out ECB 2004.

Other simulation methods have shown decreased chances for Kerry - but they differ on the extent of the drop. See TruthIsAll and Sam Wang.

CURIOUSER AND CURIOUSER
Robert Novak interviews a decorated Vietnam veteran who was on Kerry's boat when he received his first purple heart, and he disputes Kerry's story. So much for the argument that none of the anti-Kerry Swift Boat Veteran's actually served with him on his boat.

There as some questions that need to be asked of John Kerry, according to this Chicago Sun-Times article. The article points out that John Kerry's DD214, as posted on his website, says that he was awarde the SILVER STAR WITH COMBAT "V".



As pointed out in the Sun-Times article, there's no "V" for the Silver Star. in fact, here's the Navy Reg, SECNAVINST 1650.1G:

Bronze "V" (Combat Distinguishing Device).
Prior to 4 April 1974, the "V" was authorized for wear on
the Legion of Merit, Bronze Star Medal, Joint Service
Commendation Medal, Navy Commendation Medal and Navy
Achievement Medal.

OK, so maybe Navy documents can be wrong. So much for the only defense Kerry has offered against the Swift Boat allegations (besides changing his story on Cambodia), that the Navy records verify his story and he must be right and all of those with different memories are lying.

More troublesome issues are raised in the Sun-Times story. Why multiple citations for the same award? Why was he not discharged until 1978, when he was due to be discharged in 1972? The author of Stolen Valor, a Vietnam veteran and recipient of the Army's Distinguished Civilian Service Award is asking these questions. He says: "The multiple citations and variations in the official record are reason for suspicion in itself, even disregarding the current swift boat veterans' controversy."

Mr. Kerry should be hounded until he releases all of his military records - in the same way Mr. Bush has been hounded on the national guard records - to support the foundation on which he has built his campaign for president.

THE RACE SHIFTS
Stuart Eugene Thiel (aka Professor Pollkatz) has been doing the thankless job of tracking Bush's approval numbers for several years now. He compiles a Job Approval Index taken from all of the recent numbers. For the first time since April, he has Bush exceeding the 50% mark.

Also, recent national and state polling are showing significant shifts in Bush's favor. I'll update the election simulation this afternoon to reflect the latest numbers.

PREDICTING A KERRY LOSS
Jay Reding is laying down a prediction a good 10 weeks before the election. That takes guts, especially because of his specificity. But his reasoning set forth at Red State are reasons that should encourage Kerry supporters - to a point. Jay argues not that Kerry will lose for substantive reasons, but based on style and image. Certainly they'd be happier to know that their candidate was rejected because he was unlikeable than because the American voter rejects the left's approach to the issues.

I'm sure the left must also see Kerry's stylistic faults, but they just cannot believe that Kerry's faults are any worse than George Bush's. But I also suspect they couldn't believe that Bush would win in 2000.

It's hard to see your own guy's faults (for godsakes, George, if you don't know the answer, just say so and move on. see, Sovereignty, Tribal) when you are so partisan, but I think Jay does a good job of laying Kerry's out so that Democrats might recognize them.

BUSH GAINS, KERRY LEADS
Bush 48.5% – 222 EV | Kerry 49.9% – 316 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 191| Kerry 247| Toss 100
August 24, 2004

Bush has made gains this week, but Kerry still leads. And it doesn't matter how close, it's a pass-fail test.

One new measure listed on the Election Simulation. For each state with movement in the probability from the previous week, the Simulation shows which candidate gained. All states that moved went toward Bush.

But his probability remains low this week, at 26%.

I expect further change over the next three weeks in Bush's favor. If not, then things are looking bad for the Bush campaign.

Now, the numbers, maps and graphs.

WEBS OF SINISTER CONNECTIONS
It turns out a lawyer advising the Bush Campaign on election law issues was also advising the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth on similar matters. Clearly, the Bush Campaign is behind the Swift Boat's acts. And the lawyer quit.

But, there's more. Not only is the Bush Campaign up to no good, but check out the web of connnections between the Kerry Campaign, the DNC and such 527 attack dogs as MoveOn.org, America Coming Together and the Media Fund. I'm sure the media will be all over this tonight. And expect lots of resignations from the Kerry Campaign. Yeah. Right.

You think it ends there? Not hardly. The designated attack man for the Kerry Campaign, former Senator Max Cleland, is actually a political appointee of George W. Bush. That's right. George W. Bush appointed Max Cleland to the Export-Import Bank in 2003. He gets $136,000 a year for that job - although he seems to be spending all of his time doing something else (most of us would get fired for such). Rich Lowry has the details and a damn good chart demostrating how Bush is actually behind the Kerry-Cleland attacks on the Bush Campaign. Sinister, indeed.

QUOTES OF THE DAY

Our pain from seeing these slanderous attacks stems from something much more fundamental, that if one veteran's record is called into question, the service of all American veterans is questioned -- Max Cleland's letter to President Bush.

They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam in addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of this country. -- John Kerry to the U.S. Senate.

COMPOSITE POLL UPDATED
I've updated the numbers for the Composite Poll and the electoral vote analysis. Slight movement to Bush, but Kerry still leads. The numbers at the top of this page, and on the data pages linked through the Composite Poll page are updated. Maps and graphs will have to wait as I'll be drafting 15 top fantasy football players to accompany LaDanian Tomlinson to the championship.

EDWARDS TO PRAISE BUSH FOR
CALLING FOR AN END TO SWIFT VET ADS
Bush told the Swift Vets to cut it out.

Maybe Kerry and Edwards will practice what they preach and also call on MoveOn.org to disband, for theatres to pull Fahrenheit 911 from their screens and for George Soros to keep his filthy money. Also expect Kerry to denounce and demand a cessation of operations from Joint Victory Campaign 2004, the Media Fund and America Coming Together. Well, don't hold your breath. Kerry-Edwards will be happy to allow others to continue to do their dirty work for them.

And now we can all rejoice to know that all information that is relevant to our voting decisions will be only such information that the candidates themselves and their marketing firms craft and approve. Hallelujah.

Amen.

INTIMIDATION OF BLACK VOTERS OR
LEGIT VOTE FRAUD INVESTIGATION
Last week, an op-ed columnist for The New York Times, Bob Herbert, wrote that an investigation into vote-fraud in Florida focused on only elderly black voters. He noted the sinister connections involved, that "officers, from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, which reports to Gov. Jeb Bush" were conducting a "random" sample that just happened to include only old black folks. He warned that the "long and ugly tradition of suppressing the black vote is alive and thriving in the Sunshine State."

So, I wondered what The New York Times's news desk was doing with the story, but I've been unable to find any reporters, who generally have more exacting fact-checking and sourcing standards, following up on Herbert's allegations that the "vile smell of voter suppression is all over this so-called investigation by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement." If you find a follow up in the national press, please let me know.

Searching the Internet, I only found one article that did anything more than quote from Herbert's story and rage against the Bush Bros. conspiracy to disenfranchise voters. And it provides additional links.

In it, you will discover some more detail than Bob Herbert gave you, including the reality that the elderly black voters were selected at random from a universe of 264 questionable absentee ballots -- all witnessed by the same Democrat activist, who had chosen to sign up, you guessed it, elderly black voters. So the activist chose the race and age of the voters, not Florida law enforcement. You'll also discover a similar investigation into the activities of a mostly white organization as well. Bob Herbert didn't mention the white folks.

Certainly it should be a concern if it is shown that Governor Bush is using the power of law enforcement to keep Democratic voters away from the polls. And it should be a concern if some people, like Bob Herbert, Paul Krugman and Terry McAuliffe are trying to preemptively undermine the legitimacy of any result by distorting facts to present a particularly sinister picture. In the former case, legal action can rectify the problem, in the latter, the long term damage to our democracy could be catastrophic. And if vote fraud is allowed to succeed and cannot be investigated because of demogoguery, then our experiment in democratic government will have failed.

WHY VIETNAM IS AN ISSUE
A good and thoughtful treatment of the Swift Boat controversy appeared in The Washington Post on Sunday, and is a must read to understand what's going on.

And Robert Dole on John Kerry's plan to run on Vietnam. From the AP:

"One day he's saying that we were shooting civilians, cutting off their ears, cutting off their heads, throwing away his medals or his ribbons," Dole said. "The next day he's standing there, `I want to be president because I'm a Vietnam veteran.' Maybe he should apologize to all the other 2.5 million veterans who served. He wasn't the only one in Vietnam," said Dole, whose World War II wounds left him without the use of his right arm.

I believe that this issue is really scaring the Kerry campaign. That's why they are striking back. At the messenger and the alleged messenger, of course, and not the message. It's OK to talk about Vietnam as long as it is hagiographic. Otherwise, the Kerry campaign wants to limit speech - now calling on President Bush to somehow force the Swift Boat Veteran's for Truth to cut it out. Guilt by association is the Democratic talking point of the week. Certainly not a new axiom they want applied to the Kerry campaign, who was pleased to have Michael Moore occupy the Presidential box at the DNC.