Friday, September 03, 2004
BUSH WIN PROBABILITY AT 67%Keep in mind, that since this is a midweek simulation, it does not include a full week of national polling, which could, conceivably, pull down the number reported by Time. In addition, this is more directly dependent on state-by-state polling, although the national numbers do have some effect. This only includes state polls released after Monday of this week, but all were taken prior to the start of the Republican National Convention.
In any case, you should not see this as predicting a Bush win if the election were held today until it gets over 95%. Of course, it does indicate that Bush has some kind of advantage. As of today.
Click
here for the details.
BUSH 52 | KERRY 41According to a
Time Magazine poll of likely voters, taken during day 2, 3 and 4 of the Convention. Time's last poll had Bush up 2, 46-44.
LIBERAL MEDIA? WHAT LIBERAL MEDIA 2?The AP is also doing a good job of picking up John Kerry talking points and writing stories around them. Here's a line from
one AP story by some hack named Darlene Superville:
In a scathing attack, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry accused Republicans of hiding President Bush's "record of failure".
In case you didn't get it, AP moved
another story on the wires entitled
"Bush Glosses Over Complex Facts in Speech". Here's how Calvin Woodward's spin starts:
President Bush glossed over some complicating realities in Iraq, Afghanistan and the home front in arguing the case Americans are safer and his opponent cannot deliver.Great work guys.
Reuters
hack Patricia Wilson joins in too, portraying fact as opinion and opinion as fact.
Kerry, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, bristled at Cheney's attack on his patriotism. No, Cheney attacked his judgment during his Senate years. But wait, there's more.
Kerry's political campaign has heavily emphasized his Vietnam record, but his critics say he served only four months in the country. His critics say? Patty might not like Kerry's shorter ever tenured swift boat service, but it's a fact.
They say he hardly discusses his record during 20 years in the U.S. Senate. Well, 26 seconds out of an hour long speech? And refusing to defend his record in the Senate because, well, you can't attack his last 30 years because of those 16 weeks in country. Which each story reminds us of, just in case we didn't catch any random 2 minutes of Kerry over the past year.
When are they going to ask, "what have you done lately"?
LIBERAL MEDIA? WHAT LIBERAL MEDIA?
The following is the opening of the Associated Press article on President Bush's acceptance speech last night, appearing in thousands of newspapers across America:
An unpopular war and 1.1 million lost jobs is enough to kill a presidency, so President Bush tried Thursday night to make the election about something else: himself and his leadership style. "Even when we don't agree," he told an anxious and divided nation, "you know what I believe and where I stand."
Not content to tell insinuate that Bush is a failure, the AP also claimed that he is out of touch:
He sought to make a virtue of his differences with half or more of the electorate...
They even out and out mocked his speech:
He'll simplify the tax code (who wouldn't?) and put health centers in every poor county (why not?), but he didn't say how.
In short, the AP, told the reader that "The idea is to make people afraid to change,
even as they're craving it."
This is objective news coverage? On what planet?
Maybe this is not the AP's fault. Maybe the local paper I got this from took an intended "news analysis" piece and put it on the front page, by accident or otherwise>
However, even if this was analysis, the AP's biases still show loud and clear.
HORRIFYINGI admit that I'm not up to speed on Chechnya, but there's no possible justification
for this and I can't imagine being upset about anything that Putin decides to do here. The horror is also
catalogued here in images. These are enemies of all mankind.
It's a shame we have to continue the theme, but pray for the families.
PRESIDENT CLINTON TO HAVE BYPASS SURGERYFrom
the Corner:
Bill Clinton has evidently checked himself into Columbia-Presbyterian, CNN just reported. I'd been hearing this--and that it is something very serious--but everyone is being careful until confirmed.
Will update when I find a link. In the meantime, I urge the same action that I urged with respect to the people of Florida. Pray for Bill Clinton.
UPDATE: Internet reports say that ABC radio says it is quadruple bypass surgery.
UPDATE: MSNBC ,
FoxNews and
CNN have alerts, but no details.
UPDATE: The New York Times is reporting that President Clinton has had a heart attack. Pray for the former President and his family. Now, NYT is retracting to "chest pains".
UPDATE: CBS has decided that this is a good time to pimp the Kerry campaign.
All But OverKerry is toast, barring a big change in the economic scene. Todays
jobs report was his last best hope to turn the debate to areas where some swing voters can still be swung. Voters are fatigued of Iraq news and don't have any reason to think that it would be different in a Kerry administration. The troops are already there and no president can bring them back until we get a government running there - although any hopes of a flowering Jeffersonian democracy are foolish -- but that will play out after the election. Kerry has proved to be a cadaver of a candidate and Winston is right that we (yes, I prefer Kerry to Bush) should have nominated Edwards. Perhaps the rush to get a nominee is an idea whose time has come and gone. I will continue to hope for a Kerry rebound, but not with any real conviction.
PRAY FOR FLORIDAAnd the Bahamas.
(if you believe in that sort of thing)
JOHN KERRY'S PLANWe'll cut you a check.
How bout that!
I need some applause. Thank you, you jobless losers out after midnight in Ohio. My willing thralls. We'll give you all the money you need to pretend to be import-beer-drinking-bohemians. Woo hoo.
Don't worry about showers. Just make up neato signs comparing Bush to Hitler. Don't mind me. I'm ABB.
Wooo hoo. Wind me up. I've got more.
Bush bad. Me. Well, whatever. Bush bad.
It won't be a surprise in hindsight.
Thursday, September 02, 2004
HISTORICAL FOOTNOTE SPEAKSCalling this a wake-up call and cutting down George W. Bush's speech, then admitting he didn't see it, well, it's nap time for America. John Kerry, the dud, is showing so perfectly how he contrasts with George W. Bush. Looking more like Dukakis than he has so far, he's scuttling his chances. I'm confident. And while there's a chance the race could change, I don't really see it happening now. And if the left can't see that Kerry is crossing into desperation, they can't understand how to win.
As pitiful as their demonstrator comrade invading the RNC tonight. The contrast is clear. Misleading the nation into a moral war is Kerry's only complaint.
Go windsurf.
That's all I got.
UPDATE: And now, he's becoming Howard Dean. What a joke. You should have nominated John Edwards.
GOODNESSIf the Democrats fail to see the basic goodness of President Bush and continue to fight him as some kind of puppet of the corporate oligarchy, they will never understand the American people, and they will continue their desperate attempt to cut him down as John Kerry is breaking precedent to do tonight.
As Lynn Swann says about John Kerry: "There's not a whole lot there."
AuH20I think
George Will is calling me a Goldwater Republican.
U.S., FRANCE WORK ON RESOLUTION AGAINST SYRIAThe
U.S. and France are working on a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at getting Syrian troops out of Lebanon. And I thought that Bush was a dangerous unilateralist who had
alienated our allies!
Alienated allies don't work with you. And imagine Kerry's surprise that the French would dare work with a President who isn't John Kerry. He better get used to it.
Hat tip to
Jayreding.com.
And thanks to an ad on
Communistsforkerry.com (a very funny site) for the idea for the Verry Leftwards logo above.
Wednesday, September 01, 2004
NOW DESSERTTasty red meat followed by a smooth, mature glass of port. Yum.
And did you notice that the only people on the RNC podium that were angry were Democrats Zell Miller and Ron Silver (I didn't see Ed Koch, but I doubt he was angry. Hey. Who were the Republicans at the DNC? I can't remember.
I guess it's true that the Democrats are the angry party who wants to divide us. What's more divisive than proclaiming Two Americas (and only we can save you)?
Yeah, yeah. You leftists (and you know who you are) will see it differently and won't believe a word of what you heard tonight. That's your prerogative. I suspect a lot of independents, undecideds and the 10 points of Kerry's support that are clearly soft saw something tonight they could believe as well.
Game on.
COME AND GET ITTasty Red Meat - Served by a Democrat.
Tuesday, August 31, 2004
MOORE: MCCAIN A "LOSER"

Now that the Democrats' favorite Republican, John McCain, has gone from Kerry's first choice for a running mate to Bush's first endorser at the GOP Convention, he has apparently also gone from "man of principle" to "loser" at least in the opinion of their "intellectual leader," Michael Moore:
John McCain, speaking from the podium, mentioned "a disingenuous film-maker", an obvious reference to Moore, whose film Fahrenheit 9/11 was a scathing attack on the US President, George Bush. Moore just happened to be sitting in the hall, having found his way into the gathering with a press pass. Seated in the stands with other journalists, he gave a wave and held up his hand in the shape of an L, for loser...
Funny how McCain's no longer "principled" as soon as he doesn't tow the Moore/Kerry/MoveOn line...
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE GETS GOVT EMPLOYEES ENDORSEMENTReally. I'm not kidding. The State Employees Association of North Carolina
has endorsed Republican candidate Patrick Ballantine for Governor. It had only endorsed one other gubernatorial candidate, and that was Mike Easley back in 2000.
But this is what happens when you raid the state pension fund and suck up only to state employees who happen to have the politically advantageous title of "teacher". Bush, Ballantine and Burr. Might be hard to pull off the hat trick, but you never know.
ELECTION SIMULATION UPDATEDLast
simulation with pre-RNC data. Kerry win probability is 63.7%, average electoral votes, 279-259. These numbers are slightly closer than the Composite Analysis of 281-257, indicating that more electoral votes in Kerry's column are toss-ups than in Bush's column (
see, e.g. Florida).
IN CASE YOU MISSED ITActor
Ron Silver delivers his
remarks to the RNC:
Even though I am a well-recognized liberal on many issues confronting our society today, I find it ironic that many human rights advocates and outspoken members of my own entertainment community are often on the front lines to protest repression, for which I applaud them but they are usually the first ones to oppose any use of force to take care of these horrors that they catalogue repeatedly.
Under the unwavering leadership of President Bush, the cause of freedom and democracy is being advanced by the courageous men and women serving in our Armed Services.
The President is doing exactly the right thing.
That is why we need this President at this time!
BUSH PRIMED FOR CONVENTION:
KERRY LEADS ELECTORAL VOTEBush 48.8%– 222 EV | Kerry 48.5% – 316 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 208| Kerry 254| Toss 76
August 31, 2004
Bush has effectively diminished his potential post-Convention bounce by bouncing pre-Convention, jumping into a small lead in the national popular vote for the first time since July 6. As usual, the Electoral Vote analysis trails the Composite Poll as Kerry still holds a small lead with significant movement to toward Bush in many states over the last week. This is also the first time that Kerry has led the electoral vote while trailing the popular vote. That should change by next week.
This week’s analysis includes 43 state polls covering 24 states in our state-by-state weighted average. Although recent polls show Florida may have moved back into the Bush column, the state remains in Kerry’s column by the thinnest of margins of 0.73%. That’s because our analysis still considers polling two weeks ago when Kerry averaged a lead of 6 points. Last week, Bush averaged a lead of 0.5 and this week in Florida Bush leads by an average of 1.3%. Because Bush’s lead is so much smaller than Kerry’s lead from two weeks ago, Kerry holds his lead. As a result of this method of weighting recent polling results, once a state changes colors, you can be sure there’s been an actual shift supported by more than one poll.
Since we began tracking the race on March 8, Bush’s largest leads have been 50.1 to 47.6 on June 29 and 387 to 151 on March 16. Kerry’s largest leads have been 50.5 to 46.9 on August 10 and 321 to 217 on August 17.
This Week's Polls
FoxNews Opinion Dynamics (Bush 43 | Kerry 44)
Investor’s Business Daily (Bush 43 | Kerry 43)
NBC News / Wall Street Journal (Bush 47 | Kerry 45)
CNN / USA Today / Gallup (Bush 48 | Kerry 46)
Time Mag (Bush 46 | Kerry 44)
ABC News / Washington Pos (Bush 48 | Kerry 48)
LA Times (Bush 47 | Kerry 44)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 47 | Kerry 46.1)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 50 | Kerry 49.2)
Last Week's Polls
Harris (Bush 47 | Kerry 47)
CBS (Bush 45 | Kerry 46)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 46.4 | Kerry 47.7)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 50.1 | Kerry 49.5)A quick look at how the polls perform week to week, analyzing each pollster variance from the weekly mean. A positive number means the pollster reports a more Bush favorable result, a negative number indicates a more Kerry favorable result. Thus, on average, CBS reports a margin between the candidates that is 1.6 points more in favor of John Kerry than the average of all polls released on the weeks of the CBS release. It is interesting to note where Zogby and Gallup appear, indicating that one is only a bit more of an outlier than the other.
LA Times (-2)
CBS (-1.4)
Zogby (-1.1)
Newsweek (-1.1)
ABC Washington Post (-0.4)
Rasmussen (-0.2)
FoxNews (+0.3)
CNN/USAToday/Gallup (+0.6)
IBD/CSM/TIPP (+0.6)
NBC / WSJ (+2.0)
Bush State Gains
Ohio
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Kerry State Gains
None
Toss Up States (Slight Lead of <2%)
Colorado (Bush)
Florida (Kerry)
Nevada (Bush)
Ohio (Bush)
West Virginia (Bush)
Wisconsin (Bush)
Monday, August 30, 2004
MCCAIN FOR BUSHFrom Senator John McCain's
powerful speech:
We are Americans first, Americans last, Americans always.
Let us argue our differences.
But remember we are not enemies, but comrades in a war against a real enemy, and take courage from the knowledge that our military superiority is matched only by the superiority of our ideals, and our unconquerable love for them.
Our adversaries are weaker than us in arms and men, but weaker still in causes. They fight to express a hatred for all that is good in humanity.
We fight for love of freedom and justice, a love that is invincible. Keep that faith. Keep your courage. Stick together. Stay strong.
Do not yield. Do not flinch. Stand up. Stand up with our President and fight.
We're Americans.
We're Americans, and we'll never surrender.
They will.Well said from the man that John Kerry wanted on his ticket. And Chris Matthews, after hearing these very words, decides the most important thing about the speech was Michael Moore. What a buffoon.
Who links to me?