WHO WON THE DEBATE ROUND 1
It doesn't matter what I think, what matters is what everyone else thinks. According to polls, Kerry won. ABC has it Kerry 45 Bush 36 Draw 17. Gallup has it Kerry 57-37.

But as Gerry Daly argued recently, debates don't matter because they have never changed the race. Even big gaffes, such as Ford on Eastern Europe, Nixon's flop sweat or Bush 41 checking his watch did not alter the polling (Ford even gained). While there might be a slight bump for a candidate, it's gone by election time. We'll see if this year is the same, but I urge Kerry supporters who think they are back in it to read Gerry's analysis so they can be realistic about the impact of the Debates. You may still decide this will matter, but you'll be better informed.

Currently, the quickie polls from last night clearly say Kerry won. A meta-analysis composite of those polls shows Kerry wins 48-35-16, which actually is not too far off of the presidential preference polling numbers, that now stand in the composite as Bush 52, Kerry 46.

The internals of the ABC poll, despite a clear Kerry win, show that Bush still leads the horserace 51-47. ABC's last poll had the race on Sept 23 at 51-45. And Bush is still preferred on Iraq - at least according to this quickie flash poll, the reliability of which shouldn't be accepted at face value.

As for me, I'm still trying to figure out why Kerry was looking at KGB records in a Nazi death camp. He said it was in Treblinka Square. He meant something else but with the assurance he made the comment, it makes you wonder if he's tried to memorize things that he doesn't really know. I had to take a shot.

No Competition
The Center for Public Integrity has found that about 40% of government contracts are awarded without any competition. The government even hired a contractor to find out how many contractors it has. There is nothing inherently wrong with contracting and sometimes there is only one company who can do the job. I just don't believe that 4 out of 10 is reasonable. Too often, the government agency doing the contract knows the contractor it wants, price be damned, and writes the contract specs so prescriptively that only one contractor meets them. Never mind that plenty of others could do the job that's needed and that (in theory) the policy of the U.S. government is to encourage competion in contracting.

A Much Needed Reaffirmation of the Right to (Some) Privacy

A judge has ruled to srike portions of the "Patriot" Act that allow secret investigations of personal records. The government can still get at these documents to aid in fighting terror, its simply has to follow the rules set forth in the Constitution to do so. Doing it in an open fashion that is challenge-able is the right way for a country that cherishes citizens liberties to act. There is no disinfectant like sunshine.

CHURCH AND STATE: ITHACA STYLE

The Ithaca Journal (fourth item), is reporting that a public forum will be held in that City on various election issues.

The series, entitled "The Morals Behind the Headlines: Election 2004", will focus on "the value dimensions of the issues voters will face in the 2004 elections [including] church and state."

Despite a concern over the separation of church and state, the forums will be held at "The First Unitarian Church of Ithaca."

I guess they feel that there's no need for separation of church and state if the church promotes liberal causes.

THE BEST OF LILEKS
If you don't read James Lileks, you should. I don't care if you spend your days grousing about your evil capitalist overlords, you'll appreciate Lilek's ability to turn a phrase. Here are some highlights, but head over here to find a good compilation of his greatest hits. And for the smooth flavor of a filterless Lileks, check out The Bleat (turns out, he's a geek).

The left is terribly worried about what the popular kids are saying about them in the United Nations. "We've alienated the world! For heaven's sake, we've alienated China! Oh, and Free Tibet!" The right couldn't care less, but what can you expect out of a party that would rather get married to Great Britain than have an affair with France?

What does (Richard Clarke) counsel? In a recent piece in Time magazine, he's frank: "In addition to placing more cameras on our subway platforms, maybe we should be asking why the terrorists hate us." OK, Mr. Terrorist, what do you want from us? "We want you to lose." Hmm. Well, there's only one reasonable, nuanced response: Would you be happy with the Sudetenland?

Getting bombed by al-Qaida because you helped topple a fascist regime is a stark reminder that you did the right thing. You have the right enemies. A country should worry when al-Qaida doesn't regard it as a target, because that would mean it appeared to be a house of rotten wood, easily collapsed when the time is right.

I wouldn't have found it without Daly Thoughts. And if you know of a similarly creative phrasesmith on the left, let me know.

VOTER INTIMIDATION OR BAD PLANNING
Last week we mentioned a story out of Ohio about how more than 1,000 new voter registrations were suspicious. Some had non-existent addresses, several had remarkably similar signatures, one street name was consistently mispelled across registration forms. As a local prosecutor said, "We've seen voter fraud before, but never on this level." These suspicious registrations and absentee ballot requests came from Democrat favoring organizations, the NAACP National Voter Fund and Americans Coming Together.

But it seems suspicious activities aren't limited to the battleground state of Ohio (which Bush leads by 5% in our latest analysis). A telemarketing firm hired by the NAACP has been calling voters in North Carolina and telling them they can't vote in November. Maybe it's just poor planning. The NAACP could be contacting black voters to verify that they are registered to vote where they live, and, if not, they choose to frighten them by saying, "well, you won't be able to vote." Or maybe it's something else. In any case, there should be an investigation.

Singing-Nettle thinks the Ohio Secretary of State is being a little too anal about the requirements for registration forms. Of course, there's no evidence that this disadvantages any particular voting group, but that didn't prevent a little hysterics: "Will the Republicans stop at nothing?"

IS BUSH'S SUPPORT SOFT?
ARE UNDECIDEDS GOING TO BREAK FOR THE PRESIDENT?

Bush 52.3% – 295 EV | Kerry 46.7% – 243 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 284| Kerry 207| Toss 47
September 28, 2004

Bush's lead in the Composite Poll's meta-analysis of national polls holds steady this week, up a mere 0.1 point over his lead from last week. In fact, Bush's bounce from the convention of 5-6 points has remained steady and currently shows no signs of weakening, right as we prepare for Kerry's next big opportunity to move the numbers - this Thursday's debate.

Despite his steady lead in the national polls, Bush loses Pennsylvania and New Mexico and their 26 electoral votes, as those states barely slip back into Kerry's column. But there are contradictory results in this week's analysis. With 77 state polls included over the last week for 38 states (including DC (Kerry +67)), Bush has a lead of more than 2 points in states worth 284 electoral votes - up from 270 last week. Thus, Bush has solidified his lead to some extent in enough states to win re-election while Kerry has picked up a few points among states within 2 points to increase his aggregate total in this week's analysis. But don't take too much comfort in any movement in the 2 point lead toss-up range. Bush leads in the traditional battleground states by 2.8%. Bush leads in the 2000 Bush states by 12%. Kerry leads in the 2000 Gore states by 8%.

There's something interesting in the polls over the last three weeks while Bush has held his lead. While Bush has lead by double digits in some polls, FoxNews has shown the race closer since the convention with Bush leads coming in lower than the average of other polls, by 2 points on Sept 8 and by 3.4 this week. And in each poll, FoxNews also reports a greater number of undecided voters. Could it be that pollsters who push "leaners" to answer get better numbers for Bush than pollsters who are content to find undecided voters show a closer race? So, I reviewed all polls for the last three weeks and compared the number of undecided voters to the level of support for each of Bush and Kerry. As you seen in the below chart, as undecideds decrease in a poll, both Bush and Kerry's support increases - as you might expect. But Bush's support increases more rapidly. Ranging from a low of about 45 if there are 12% undecided to a projected high of 53% with no undecideds (projection is a least squares linear progression, represented by the line in the below chart). Meanwhile, Kerry's support ranges from about 42 to 45, a much smaller increase.

What does this tell us about undecideds and how they may break? Well, the Republican spin is clear - the undecideds are showing a tendency to break heavily for the President. But the spin you might expect from Democrats is probably more accurate and more relevant to campaigns trying to figure out where the race stands today. "Leaners" are both less solidly behind their candidate and, probably, less likely to vote. Thus, a greater proportion of Bush's voters in the latest polls may be soft.

While that should give some hope to Democrats, they should still be concerned that Bush still holds a lead even when poll victims aren't pressed for whom they lean toward. At the same time, Democrats can hope that this soft support can be turned. And the debates will give them that opportunity - while Bush tries to solidify the "Leaners'" support.

Click the graph to enlarge.


Click here for the details, numbers, graphs, maps and the Election Simulation, which now shows an 84% probability of a Bush electoral victory and 95% confidence that Bush's electoral vote total will be between 240 and 354. But you'll note that Kerry's making gains in his probability of winning Florida and Ohio - but he still has some way to go.

"He trav'led with a gun in ev'ry hand..."

Heading up the week's "irony" department is the news that music legend Bob Dylan, muse to a million hippies and pacifists, believes in handguns for self defense.

In his new autobiography, Dylan speaks about how he got the guns, " two pistols and a rifle," to protect himself from his "fans":

"At first, it was merely the nomadic homeless making illegal entry - seemed harmless enough, but then rogue radicals looking for the Prince of Protest began to arrive - unaccountable-looking characters, gargoyle-looking gals, scarecrows, stragglers looking to party, raid the pantry"

Dylan also seems to disparage the very baby boomers that worship him, when he notes:

"I had very little in common with and knew even less about a generation that I was supposed to be the voice of...In my real life I got to do the things that I loved the best and that was all that mattered - the Little League games, birthday parties, taking my kids to school, camping trips, boating, rafting, canoeing, fishing.."

So to recap: Bob Dylan owns handguns for self-defense, lives a suburban dad lifestyle, would go fishing, and disparages the 1960s generation.

Are we sure he isn't a closet Republican?