Saturday, October 09, 2004
THE KERRY WORLDVIEWFrom our
cartoonist.
Friday, October 08, 2004
BUSH WINSHe jabbed and jabbed and had a command of the issues. Kerry fell in to the trap of barely repeating his performance last week. Bush far exceeded his performance. Kerry gave us nothing new and Bush gave a lot.
I've been completely wrong before. As I said, what matters is what people remember tomorrow, and "people" includes the media. We'll see if Bush wins tomorrow. I think he will.
Kerry's plan: "Utopia".
Nowhere. He often repeats, "and I have a plan to do it". But the only specific about his plan, whether its about the environment or Iraq or creating jobs, is "roll back the tax cuts". That's no plan. Ordinarily, this is something that you'd expect the press to point out. Don't count on it.
He'll "lower the cost of health care in the way that I've described to you." What? You've described it. I call Bull on that.
And, looking into the camera, he looked like a puppet on a string. Not very presidential, now is it.
Now, "to the people earning more than $200,000 a year." You're screwed.
Good joke about Charlie. But assumes he doesn't have anyone very successful in the audience.
The President is "on". This is the guy that beat the stuffing out of Al Gore. And Ann Richards. He's making the connections so people can understand. I sense this will play well.
When listening to a question from regular folks, have you ever seen someone look more uncomfortable than John Kerry. The nervous, look-at-me-listening-nodding...
Add 40,000 active duty forces? How?
I guess Kerry just lost his "back-door draft" argument.
Bush's shock about telling Tony Blair we are going alone will play well.
"More facile". Facile's a two-syllable word!
Bush should have pointed out that Democrats introduced legislation to bring back the draft, and only Democrats voted for it. Missed opportunity.
Maybe Bush feels more comfortable talking to this audience than to a news media that looks for political gotchas, or may even
be biased.
Bush is making
my point. Talking about the summit and how he's got an impossible job expecting he can get countries to follow us in a war that Kerry disagrees with. That was a good job.
Kerry now compounds his error by repeating his "wrong war" rhetoric.
BUSH FINALLY MAKES THE POINT. We didn't know we didn't have WMD til we got there. Kerry said the same damn thing. Bush didn't say "damn".
Bush is looking good, well rested.
Kerry says he wouldn't follow the Bush plan to "have elections and then draw down troops". Is he really saying he wouldn't follow that, or is he a sucker for taking the opposite course that Bush is taking - no matter what. That's not a serious candidate.
GOT SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THE DEBATE?Just put it in the comments to this post. Try to be objective. Sure, you'll like your guy's points, but think about whether he did what we needed to do to win over the undecided and soft supporters.
Oh, gotta link the
new Jibjab. Funny stuff. Truly bipartisan.
And it seems that ABC is preparing its anti-Bush spin,
according to a memo intercepted by Drudge.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
NUMBERS ARE UPDATED
PLUS SOME WORDS ON THE DEBATEI have updated the numbers in the
data file and in the
election simulation. As of today, Bush leads in the Composite Poll 49.9-48.9. It's gotten closer.
The
election simulation - and remember that state polling changes lag the national numbers - shows that as of now Bush has an 89% probability of winning the electoral vote. I have added a description of my simulation methodology, as well as some additional data to
that page. Let me know if you have any questions about the methods. As always, I am happy to entertain any critique, criticism or unbridled enthusiasm.
I know I haven't discussed the VP debate. My initial reaction was draw - maybe an Edwards win, which is meaningless compared to the public reaction - especially the undecideds, soft leaners and the media who drive them - which is more important. Now, I think that it will go down in history as a Cheney win, who had the more memorable lines and demeanor. Cheney's statement that he had not met Edwards prior to that night proved to be false. So his statement was either (a) a lie or (b) evidence that Senator Edwards just isn't memorable. And the fact that a hard working press can find only a few meetings - all outside the Senate except for a ceremonial swearing-in, prove Cheney's point that Senator Edwards was not where he was supposed to be dealing with the important issues of the day (missing votes and meetings of the Intelligence and Judiciary Committees).
Anyway, it won't make much difference. Remember Quayle's old fashioned beating by the smug-long-time-buddy-of-JFK? Who became Vice President?
The next big event is Friday, when I suspect that Bush will be better prepared and better rested, ready to underscore the unseriousness of Kerry's positions. Pointing out that he'd submit our national security to a Global Test, proctored by the whims of nations and officials bribed by Saddam Hussein. That Kerry's going to have a hell of time in his meeting with Jacques Chirac (aka,
Le Jackass).
CHIRAC: Fifty Thousand troops and 50 Billion Euros? Pourquoi?
PRES. KERRY: A mistake.
CHIRAC: 50,000 for a faux pas?
PRES. KERRY: Yes. The wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time.
CHIRAC: You convinced me. Non!
Plus, Bush won't make the mistake he did last time, spending a tiring day in Florida comforting Hurricane victims while Kerry had his nails done.
New Job TimeApparently,
Paul Bremer is planning on moving to the private sector. (Unless he thinks the election is going to go to Kerry's way.) I think this signals his retirement.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Bi-Partisan Cluelessness or No Workable Options?Tony Blankley, talking head-columnist-former Chief of Staff for Newt Gingrich-notes that
"2005 will be the year of decision for the world on what to do — or not do — about quickly nuclearizing North Korea and Iran. In the month left before the presidential election, the American people have a right to demand to know from both George Bush and John Kerry precisely what they will or won't accept and do about these appalling developments."
Blankley points out two recent reports:
"Last Friday the Associated Press reported that: 'Amid heightened concerns of a North Korean missile test, a U.S. destroyer has started patrolling the Sea of Japan in what officials say is a first step toward creating a shield to protect the United States and its allies from a foreign missile attack.' North Korea responded to the news by asserting that 'the U.S. should clearly understand that a preemptive attack is not its monopoly."'More from Blankley-
Regarding the North Korean threat, Jim Hoagland, The Washington Post's esteemed and balanced foreign affairs columnist, wrote over the weekend: "Thursday night's fragmented argument over Kerry's championing of bilateral talks with North Korea and Bush's insistence on the value of multilateral talks... illustrated the triumph of... verbal dexterity over reality."
"Kim Jong Il is interested in nuclear bombs, not in a particular format for talks. His covert betrayal of the nonproliferation agreement struck with a trusting Democratic administration and its overt belligerent defiance of Bush's tougher approach make that clear. But neither Mr. Kerry nor Mr. Bush could voice that inconvenient reality Thursday night."
The same could be said about both candidates public comments regarding Iran's nuclear objectives. They both debate various modalities of working with Britain, France, Russia and the United Nations to induce Iran to stand down from her nuclear aspirations.
The grim reality is that neither country would appear to have any intention of backing down. Thus, very soon (if not already), the world will be faced with two new nuclear powers, one led by a lunatic, and the other led by fanatical Islamists committed to rolling back the advance of Western civilization and wiping out Israel.
North Korea is notorious for selling its most advanced weapons to the highest bidder, while Iran is the world's premier backer of terrorists. But even if they were not to proliferate their dreaded nuclear capacity, they both must be presumed to be willing to use such weapons either actually, or as blackmail devices, for their own state purposes.
It is not for nothing that President Bush listed Iran and North Korea, along with Iraq, as the axis of evil in his 2002 State of the Union address. At the time, commentators giggled and smirked at the metaphor. But whether they constitute an axis, or are merely separate sources of extreme danger, three years on the danger list is no longer theoretical — but imminently actual.
And, as it is increasingly apparent, even extreme international diplomatic blocking actions are not likely to stop Iran and North Korea from their nuclear quest.
So, if diplomacy fails, what will the president of the United States do about it in 2005? President Bush has said that such nuclear status is unacceptable, but continues to express confidence in diplomacy. Unlike Mr. Kerry, the president is committed to making operational a missile defense system. While that is necessary, regretfully, it will not be up and running in time to constitute a full check against the imminent threat.
Mr. Kerry continues to limit himself to expressing confidence in his ability to solve the danger diplomatically. Also, and significantly, unlike the president he opposes the development of nuclear "bunker-buster" technology, which is being developed specifically to deal with North Korea's and Iran's nuclear capabilities.
It is understandable that in a closely fought presidential election, neither candidate would find it appealing to talk of his contingent plans for war with a possible nuclear adversary. It would be even less appealing, one supposes, for either candidate to admit that if it came to it, he would just accept the nuclear status of Iran and North Korea and hope for the best. But I, for one, would like to know which candidate, if either, would acquiesce to such conditions and which, if either, would be prepared to fight.
So far, a remarkably incurious Washington press corps has not chosen to challenge the candidates to explain beyond their platitudinous paeans to the doubtful efficacy of diplomacy in the face of belligerent madness.
Thanks, Tony, for teeing up an increasingly important issue that the candidates, the Washington press, and the voters don't want to confront. The ostrich apporach will not work here, unless we are resgined to these two rogue states joining the Nuke Club and, in the case of N. Korea, becoming a sort of Nuclear Wal-Mart. But what are the workable options? Diplomacy - I think Blankley and recent history with these two nations demonstrates that diplomacy is an unlikely path to success (at least without a more concerted and united effort by nations with credible military power). But the military option is ugly, too. We don't have the ground forces to deal with Iran without abandoning Iraq to the crazies and airstrikes likely won't do it for Iran. Any attack on N. Korea may mean tens of thousands of dead S. Koreans and U.S. military and civilians. (I'm not without sympathy for the citizens of N. Korea, who are ruled by a thug and his minions. N. Korea is more of a criminal venture than a nation in the modern sense.) Maybe this is why the ostrich approach is so universely popular.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
COMPOSITE POLL QUESTIONAs we are getting closer to the election, a number of polls are becoming tracking polls - being released daily, each one covering the previous three days. Rasmussen has done this all year, and I have taken all numbers for the week and averaged them immediatly prior to doing my updates late Monday/early Tuesday. Should I do the same week-long average for each of the tracking polls, thereby possibly mitigating any late week swings, or should I just use the latest result, which would be a Friday/Saturday/Sunday poll that may or may not oversample one party or another because of the days it was taken (some argue that families that are away from home on weekend polling days are more heavily Republican and thus polls on the weekend undercount them - I don't know if I buy it).
Rasmussen, Battleground and Washington Post are going to be tracking polls. All arguments welcome.
COMPOSITE POLL IS UPDATEDBush 51.1% - 295 | Kerry 47.4% - 243
Details are
here. The top line numbers include those several Kerry-favorable polls, but not the ABC poll (Bush 51-46) or CBS Poll (Bush 48-47) - which wouldn't have really effected the average. I suspect we won't see any change, if there is change, in the electoral college and state polling until those polls start coming in this week. Watch for updates of the
election simulation, and the
state-by-state data page, which may come more often.
Monday, October 04, 2004
POST ELECTION PRIORITY: ELECTION REFORMWell, you'd think that would have been the priority after 2000, but things are looking funny this year, too. Amid
reports that new registrations are up significantly this year, are reports of
suspicious registration related activity and that many new
registrations are fraudulent.
Now comes a story that some counties in Ohio have registrations for more people than are actually eligible to vote - according to Census estimates of 2004 population. This could be for several reasons. One, is that rolls have not been purged of people who have moved to, say, Florida (over 40,000 voted in both Florida and New York in 2000 - sorry, I don't have the link handy). Two, Census estimates of current population are wrong (although some would like for these estimates to be used to proportion representation). Three, fraud.
But if these registrations are fraudulent, then the only way to know is to visit the registrant (something you'll get
smacked around politically for doing). The best way to verify voters and their registration is through picture ID. You have to have one to rent a video from Blockbuster, but not to vote. Clearly, one is much more important than the other. And there should also be a centralized database linked to a unique identifier - like social security number - to prevent cross-state voting.
But you can't talk about preventing fraud or you'll be harangued for suppressing the vote and disenfranchising people. But this must be addressed - its too difficult to deal with when counting the votes. It's too late this year, maybe someone will get reasonable before 2008.
Who links to me?