MONTANA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +25.1
Composite Margin: Bush +21.4
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 68-32
Best Kerry: 43-57
Trend: Republican +22.6
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +63
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +27
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -20

Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992 because Ross Perot pulled in 26% of the vote. In every other year since 1960, the Republican performed better in Montana than nationally. I’m sure this pick will be controversial, but I’m confident that Bush sweeps to an easy win and those all important three electoral votes.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

IS TERESA AN ALCOHOLIC?

Drudge and the Washington Times are linking to a profile of Teresa Heinz Kerry and her "fun loving ways," including love for the proverbial "fruit of the vine."

All of this, combined with her reputation for "erratic" behavior, leads one to speculate whether this potential first lady has a problem with alcohol.

This fact does not, it should be noted, disqualify Kerry for the Presidency (John Kerry disqualifies himself for the job quite nicely, thank you).

However, perhaps instead of mocking Ms. Heinz Kerry, we should be extending to her our sympathies.

UPDATED COMPOSITE
The updated numbers are above and on the data pages that are linked here. Focus more on the without toss ups numbers above in parentheses. The reason for the change in the topline numbers is a recent poll in Minnesota (Bush +2) and a polls in New Mexico (Bush +5, Kerry +2). Of course, Bush's composite lead in Minnesota is +0.01. Personally, I don't really think Bush will win Minnesota - although polling could change that prediction by the time I get around to projecting Minnesota next week. Bush's only chance is if he wins the national popular vote by about 4 points or more.

I've been updating daily, so keep an eye out for changes.

DISENFRANCHISING FLORIDA REPUBLICANS
One of the big complaints that Republicans had about the 2000 vote in Florida, is that networks projected the state for Gore before polls had closed in the heavily Republican panhandle, which is in the central time zone and the polls close there at 8:00pm EST.

Funny that the webmonkey at MSNBC isn't aware of this, as he lists the polls closing at 7 EST for Florida. Go figure.

I suspect the networks will get it right on election day, and regardless of what the exit polls say, they won't project Florida until they get a broad cross-section of votes counted. Maybe around 10pm EST. And if the exits are at all close in Ohio (7:30 EST), Pennsylvania (8:00 EST), New Jersey (8:00 EST) and New Hampshire(8:00 EST), they may wait for a real confirming count - but don't discount their eagerness to "make news" can call any state early.

For details on poll closing times, see here.

KANSAS


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Winner: Bush +20.8
Composite Margin: Bush +20.2
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 65-35
Best Kerry: 44-56
Trend: Republican +22.3
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Not this year.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +29 (but not really enough data)
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +25
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -19

Despite recently electing a Democrat Governor, Kansas remains a strong Republican state nationally. Its electoral votes have gone for the Republican candidate every year since 1968, and for Nixon in 1960. In every election since 1960, it has voted more heavily for the Republican than the nation as a whole, so a historical blowout would be necessary for a Democrat to even be competitive. Bush gets the 6 electoral votes.

We only have one more state where Bush has a 100% statistical probability of winning. We’ve already exhausted Kerry’s 100% states.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

TEXAS


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 34
2000 Winner: Bush +21.3
Composite Margin: Bush +22.7
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 65-35
Best Kerry: 43-57
Trend: Republican +22.1
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Don’t mess with Texas
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +23
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +24
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -27

In 1988, Michael Dukakis – governor of Massachusetts and boss of Lt. Gov. Kerry – in an effort to repeat the success of the Kennedy/Johnson ticket, added Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen – who beat Bush 41 for his Senate seat – in the hope of picking up Texas’ electoral votes. It didn’t work. In fact, Dukakis won no southern states (unless you count West Virginia). John Kerry didn’t make that mistake, probably because Texas doesn’t have a Democratic Senator today.

Texans were more supportive of the Democrat than the nation in 1960, 1964, 1968 and 1976, but has become more pro-Republican ever since. It gave the first President Bush a margin of victory over Dukakis that was 5 points greater than his win nationally, and then 9 points more against Clinton, 13 more to Dole and 22 more to Dubya. It won’t change this year, and may even be larger.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

OLYMPIANS AND PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES FOR BUSH
I'm sure the other guy has a roster of professional athletes who support him (most probably ride the bench), but I liked the list I received by email today. A bit of what they said:

The same qualities that make a great athlete make a great President--the determination to do what is right, regardless of the latest polls, the personal strength to bear the weight of the nation on your shoulders, and the faith that a higher power will direct the actions of good people.

We see in President Bush these same qualities.

Here are some of them:

John Elway, NFL Hall of Famer
Matt Hasselbeck, NFL Quarterback
Bernie Kosar, former NFL QB
Steve Largent, NFL Hall of Famer
Karl Malone, NBA All-Star, MVP
Jack Nicklaus, PGA Legend
Mary Lou Retton, Olympic Gold Medalist
Nolan Ryan, MLB Hall of Famer
Roger Staubach, NFL Hall of Famer
Lynn Swann, NFL Hall of Famer
Kerri "Walk it off" Strug, Olympic Gold Medalist

This seems like a good time to remember this.

NORTH DAKOTA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +26.6
Composite Margin: Bush +29
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 68-32
Best Kerry: 41-59
Trend: Republican +26.4
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +29
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -29

Johnson in 64, Republican ever since. Always more Republican than the national vote. Another Bush win.

ALASKA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +31.0
Composite Margin: Bush +27.5
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 71-29
Best Kerry: 40--60
Trend: Republican +32.9
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +27
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -23

Johnson won in 1964 by a bigger margin than he won nationally. All other years from 1960 to 2000, Alaska has given a greater percentage of its votes to the Republican than the nation as a whole. Must have something to do with that rugged individualism. And oil.

I suspect that the massive wins by Republicans in many of these western states is partially because turnout is suppressed among Democrats, who know their votes won’t matter in a presidential election. Alaska may be closer than my estimated 27.5 points this year, because of a close Senate race between Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and former Gov. Tony Knowles (D). Lisa was appointed to succeed her dad – by her dad when he became Governor. Larry Sabato calls the seat a toss-up.

On election night, a good way to see how well your candidate may be doing is to see how his exit poll margin in a state compares to state-by-state polling as reflected in the composite average. Alaska closes to late to be of any help, but generally, such a comparison won’t work as well where there are close state-by-state races (think Kentucky).

Regardless of the Senate race, Alaska is Bush Country.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

ILLINOIS


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Winner: Gore +12
Composite Margin: Kerry +11.7
Current Category: Advantage Kerry (high end of range)
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 49-51
Best Kerry: 61-39
Trend: Democrat +13
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -5
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +16

Like New York, Illinois got really tight in the polls during the course of this race. Out of 13 polls in my analysis, Bush was within single digits 4 times, three of which were in September. By October, Kerry extended his lead to 11 or 17 in the two polls released this month. Clearly, Illinois voters were a little confused by the Republican convention but came back home to John Kerry during the debates. While it’s possible Illinois could be closer today than the 11.7 margin I currently see, I can’t imagine it ever being competitive. Who’s going to buy ads in Chicago anyway?

Illinois became a Democrat state for good in 1980, when it voted for Reagan but was more favorable to Carter than the nation as a whole (by 1.8 points). It’s been moving more and more Democratic ever since and this year will be no exception.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

WILL REGISTER VOTERS FOR CRACK
Drudge is reporting that the NAACP National Voter Fund is paying for voter registrations with crack. You heard right, crack cocaine.


picture credit

First they swipe my Bush/Cheney sign, now this. What's next, drive by shootings of GOP headquarters?

In 2000, the Democrats were paying people in cigarettes - I guess in honor of Al Gore's years working the tobacco fields in Tennessee. It must be true that the left really is motivated this time, as they ratchet things up a few notches. How will we Republicans ever compete?

I'm sure that The New York Times and CBS are investigating.

Hat tip to areafiftyone.

VERMONT


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Gore +9.9
Composite Margin: Kerry +12.4
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 50-50
Best Kerry: 60-40
Trend: Democrat +13.5
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? A significant surge in the national result could help Bush win, but he’d have to win nationally by at least 10 points to pull it off. In other words, No.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -10
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +15

There have only been 3 polls taken in Vermont since I began tracking the polls in late February, and Kerry was up 10, 13 and 15. Apparently, Vermont is more like New England than New Hampshire and Maine. Heck, they elected Howard Dean.

Historically, Vermont has moved from being more favorable to Republicans than the nation as a whole in 1960, 1968, 1972 and 1976 to being more favorable to Democrats ever since. I suppose Nixon is their kind of Republican. Expect Kerry to win this, even if there’s a Bush landslide – which is unlikely.

IDAHO


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Winner: Bush +39.5
Composite Margin: Bush +30.6
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: 79-21
Best Kerry: 39-61
Trend: Republican +37%
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Never.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +30
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -29

Here’s yet another one of those western states that preferred Lyndon Johnson to Barry Goldwater, but has preferred every other Republican since 1960. Here’s yet another state that votes more heavily for Republicans than does the nation as a whole in every election since 1960. The closest margin between the Republican and Democrat came in 1992 and 1996 because of the Ross-look-under-the-hood-see-what’s-wrong-fix-it-Larry-Perot factor. Still, the Republican beat Bill Clinton in both races by double digits.

No changes this year as Bush gets the easy victory.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

DO UNDECIDEDS BREAK FOR THE CHALLENGER?
TruthIsAll, who does an election simulation, assumes they do and is currently showing a probability of Kerry victory of over 90%. I ignore the question of undecideds - working only with state poll results - and calculate, as of yesterday, a probability of Bush winning the electoral college at 82%.

Is it reasonable to assume the conventional wisdom is correct that undecideds break substantially for the incumbent? Working with averages of late season polling back to 1960, I found that Republicans (regardless of incumbency), pick up an average of 48% of the undecideds while Democrats get 41%. Republican Incumbents get 31%, Democrat incumbents get 37%. Challenger Democrats get 42% and Challenger Republicans get 77%. It's hard to confidently apply these results to this race - as other factors may also come into play.

Here's a good analysis of historic "breaking" of undecides, and the conclusion is that you can't say they necessarily break for the challenger. Add in the fact that there are so few undecides in the Bush-Kerry race, and it's hard to guess the effect of the undecided vote.

At the same site, you'll find a state by state analysis remarkably similar to my own methods, although he weights not only based on date of release, but also on historic performance of the pollster. I've assumed that performance differences will generally average themselves, but it is interesting to see his numbers, at My Election Analysis.

NEW YORK


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 31
2000 Winner: Gore +25
Composite Margin: Kerry +18.3
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 46-54.
Best Kerry: 71-29.
Trend: Democrat +25.2
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Only if it were Giuliani.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -7
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +28

New York looked like it was moving significantly toward Bush in mid September when individual polls showed it as close as 5 and 7. New York has come home, as it were, to the Democrats. The state has polled more heavily for Democrats than the nation has every election since 1960. Sure, Bush could win New York, if we wins the national vote by about 25 points. So count on another 31 electoral votes for Kerry.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

NEBRASKA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Winner: Bush +29
Composite Margin: Bush +31
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: Not enough data.
Best Kerry: Not enough data.
Trend: Republican +29
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Nope. Not even an electoral vote.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +31
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -31

Like a number of other states, Nebraska hasn’t gone Democrat since 1964. And in every election since 1960, Nebraska has supported the Republican candidate more strongly than the nation as a whole and will again this year. Nebraska is also one of only 2 states, along with Maine, that can split its electoral votes, but that won't happen either. Go ahead and write this one in ink.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

DEMOCRATS ARE THIEVES
I have a Bush/Cheney sign in my yard. It's a new sign I just put out because someone stole the sign I had out yesterday. They stole my neighbor's Bush/Cheney sign too. Right out of our yards. Not off the side of I-40, but from our private property. That's consistent. Stolen by thieves who don't respect private property, just like the national party.

I'm not saying that overly enthused Republicans don't do the same thing, but I know now that Democrats do. I urge both parties to show a little tolerance and respect, for a freakin' change.

I'll be rigging up some video surveillance in the future.

WYOMING


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +40
Composite Margin: Bush +36.8
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 100%
Best Bush: Not enough data.
Best Kerry: Not enough data.
Trend: Republican +36.3
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Never.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +36
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -36

Lyndon Johnson won in 1964. This isn’t a Johnson/Goldwater rematch and Bush wins even if he didn’t have native son Dick Cheney on the ticket. Chalk up a big 3 more electoral votes for the Bush team.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

MASSACHUSETTS


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 12
2000 Winner: Gore +27.3
Composite Margin: Kerry +19.7
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 43-57
Best Kerry: 71-29
Trend: Democrat +25.6
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Never.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -14
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -37

Reagan won Massachusetts twice, but Massachusetts has been more favorable than the nation as a whole to the Democrat in every election that I have analyzed from 1960 to 2000. That’s not going to change this year, as favorite son John Kerry wins easily. But you knew that.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.