"OCTOBER SURPRISE"...INCOMING....?

The blogosphere is abuzz that the SwiftBoat Vets have unearthed proof that Kerry was not honorably discharged.

At this point it is all rumor and innuendo.

However, it's potentially telling that Kerry has now admitted to Tom Brokaw that his military record "is not public" after months of insisting it was. While such a reversal could just be another Kerry "flip-flop," it could also be the first marker being laid by Kerry to claim his "privacy" is "violated" when the story of his discharge goes public.

Fasten your seat belts...

PROJECTIONS
Between today and Monday, I will project the following states. These are harder calls. Some, almost impossible. But not for me, the all-seeing and all-knowing. When I project the state, you can bank on it. Don't even need to tune in on Tuesday night. Go see a movie.

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Hawaii
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

MISSISSIPPI


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Winner: Bush +16.9
Composite Margin: Bush +11.3
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 92%
Best Bush: 66-34
Best Kerry: 48-51
Trend: Democrat +15.9
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +22
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +31
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -9

Here is another state without much data, so take the numbers with a grain or million of salt. Bush led by 31 in April and 9 in September. That’s it. I may not be anywhere close to the correct margin of victory, but I do know one thing. Bush will win.

Historically, Mississippi has voted more heavily for the Republican than the nation since 1984. And that won’t change this year.

LOUISIANA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Winner: Bush +7.7
Composite Margin: Bush +10.0
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 87%
Best Bush: 59-41
Best Kerry: 51-49
Trend: Republican +4.9
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? If landslide.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +15
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +19
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -6

Democrats performed better in Louisiana than they did nationally in 1976 and 1996, but not in 1980, 1984, 1988 and 1992 so it shouldn’t have been such a surprise that in 2000 that Bush had a shot here. It was a surprise in 2000, but it won’t be in 2004. Bush has consistent polled above 50% in Louisiana this year, with Kerry swinging wildly from the low 40s to the low 30s. There’s little chance the race has changed enough since the last polls in mid October showing Bush up 8 and 9.

Not a battleground, but Bush country.



For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

DELAWARE


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Gore +13.1
Composite Margin: Kerry +8.5
Current Category: Advantage Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 100%
Best Bush: 50-50
Best Kerry: 63-37
Trend: Democrat +11.6
Safe: Most likely.
Can other candidate win? Anything’s possible.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Not enough data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +9

In order for the Composite methodology to work, you need data. All the numbers you see up top (except for the Trend and 2000 Winner) should be taken with a bucket of salt. There have only been 2 polls all year in Delaware and they both showed Kerry leading. In one, Kerry led 45-38. In the other, 50-41. Both were taken after the Republican convention, so don’t think that may have swayed voters. One was by American Research Group who’s numbers have tended to be more favorable to Kerry than other pollsters.

With limited data for this race, we must rely on historical data. With only 3 electoral votes, Delaware’s claim to fame use to be that whoever wins Delaware, wins the election. It was a bellwether. Until 2000, when Gore won the state, the national popular vote, but lost the election. Delaware has been more favorable to the Republican than the nation as a whole in 1964, 1968, 1984 and 1988. Democrats have done better here than nationally in 1960, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996 and 2000. The recent trend favors the Democrats. The only polls this year supports that.

The question: will Delaware act like neighbor Maryland and give Kerry a big win, or like New Jersey and Pennsylvania where the election is closer. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bush won it, but I’m quite confident that Kerry wins Delaware.

NORTH CAROLINA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Winner: Bush +12.8
Composite Margin: Bush +8.5
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 93%
Best Bush: 60-40
Best Kerry: 47-53
Trend: Republican +14.4
Safe: Almost.
Can other candidate win? Probably not.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +6
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +15
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -3

Throughout 2004, even before Edwards landed on the ticket, North Carolina has polled closer than the 2000 result. Some North Carolina poll watchers tend to think that Republicans always perform better on election day than in polls in North Carolina. That may be, but I wouldn’t rely on it.

Bush has swung between 48 and 55 in polls this year, while Kerry has moved between 40-45. In the last month, Bush has consistently garnered the support of 50% or more, except once, where he still led by 8. For Kerry to win North Carolina, there will have to be some phenomenon working that hasn’t shown up in polling this year – as well as a significant national result in his favor.

Because Edwards is from North Carolina, there’s also a chance that his presence will change the dynamics in the state and thereby old exit polling models may not apply. Exit pollsters chose precincts that they think are representative of the state. President Bush won Wake County (Edwards’ home) in 2000, but has trailed significantly in polls in that county this year. If exit pollsters follow old models, it may be difficult for networks to make an early projection as Kerry/Edwards’ support could be over represented in the exit poll sample. So, networks may wait for the tally to start coming in.

Historically, Republicans have done better in North Carolina than nationally in every election beginning with Reagan’s reelection. And in each successive year, it has become more and more Republican favorable. It will pull back a little this year, but will still give the Republican a bigger margin than the nation as a whole.

Bush wins this one. Do does senate candidate Richard Burr. Gubernatorial candidate Patrick Ballantine’s only chance is if Bush wins by more than 10.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

MARYLAND


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Gore +16.4
Composite Margin: Kerry +12.5
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 89%
Best Bush: 48-52
Best Kerry: 65-35
Trend: Democrat +14.8
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Not enough data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: Tie
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +14

Maryland looked like it might be competitive in Late September and Early October when Bush tied it up. Since then, Kerry has led in the double digits and will take the state on November – barring some strange occurrence.

If the vote is around 5 points for Kerry, or less, then that may say something about other states. Watch carefully.

WASHINGTON


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Winner: Gore +5.6
Composite Margin: Kerry +6.5
Current Category: Advantage Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 88%
Best Bush: 52-48
Best Kerry: 58-42
Trend: Democrat +6.1
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Maybe, but unlikely.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: Tied
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +11

This is our first Battleground state – or at least it was believed to be a Battleground earlier in the race. Regardless of how the national vote has swung, Washington has remained fairly steady, with Kerry generally polling within a couple of points of 50 and Bush within a couple of points of 44. While that looks like a fairly close race of about 6 points and Bush could surge ahead if he wins early states and discourages late Democrats from showing up, it is very unlikely that Bush could win Washington. Besides, there’s a tight Senate race in Washington and that should help turnout for both parties even if the election is decided early in the east.

Another bad sign for President Bush, despite the apparent closeness of the race, he has never led in any poll. I’m confident that Kerry wins Washington.

A Kerry win is consistent with historical trends, as Washington hasn’t voted more favorable for the Republican in the national vote since 1980, and even Dukakis – who lost California - won the state in 1988.


INDIANA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Winner: Bush +15.6
Composite Margin: Bush +17.5
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 96%
Best Bush: 62-38
Best Kerry: 46-54
Trend: Republican +16.4
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +21
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +28
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -12

Another state where Kerry has never been within single digits, even though it is wedged between safe Kerry state Illinois and toss-up Ohio. Bush has polled above 50% in every poll this year, except one, where he still led by 19. There’s no better evidence of an absolute lock on election night.

And in any close election, history tells us the Republicans will win Indiana, as the Republican always (since 1960, at least) does better here than nationally. So, that’s 11 electoral votes for Kerry in Washington, and 11 for Bush in Indiana.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

KENTUCKY


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Winner: Bush +15.1
Composite Margin: Bush +19.0
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 98%
Best Bush: 64-36
Best Kerry: 48-52
Trend: Republican +15.1
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +30
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +20
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -6

Almost a battleground state when early polls showed it in the single digits, Kentucky has broken wide open for President Bush.

On election night, polls close first in Kentucky. Bush will get the 8 electoral votes and I suspect Bunning will win the Senate.

SOUTH DAKOTA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Winner: Bush +22.7
Composite Margin: Bush +18.8
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 96%
Best Bush: 68-32
Best Kerry: 46-54
Trend: Republican +21.7
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +37
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +27
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -13

Even McGovern couldn’t win his home state in 1972, and maybe this year Daschle can’t win his home state. Bush takes it, with Thune on his coattails.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

GLOBAL TESTING
Elements of the Kerry campaign, including CBS, The New York Times and the candidate himself, have alleged that the U.S. Military's tactical planners in Iraq are incompetent - and thus, President Bush by extension. This with the only actual eyewitness evidence being that the explosives at Al Qaaqaa weren't there when U.S. forces arrived in early 2003 (when liberals would have preferred that they were guarding the Baghdad Museum).

Now, it appears that one of the Kerry Global Test Proctors, Russia, was involved in the movement of these powerful explosives, before the invasion. Explosives useful to bring down buildings, airplanes and trigger a nuclear weapon (though there are no WMDs, mind you). And ABC reports that it may all be exaggerated anyway. Of course, that didn't stop Kerry from ignoring the facts and reiterating his only argument for a Kerry presidency, that Bush is a bad tactical war planner.

And Kerry's complaints about the missing explosives underscore the emptiness of his candidacy. Saddam wasn't a threat, but he was, but he wasn't, but he had these horribly powerful weapons, but he didn't have bad weapons, and besides, we should have sent our troops to get a hold of them, but we really shouldn't have invaded and Bush is stupid for not standing guard over Al Qaaqaa or committing troops to Tora Bora, which was a good idea at the time when he supported but doesn't now when he needs a talking point for today. Blah blah blah.

There were only 2 ways to secure these explosives. Either U.S. soldiers could go to Al Qaaqaa and secure them or Saddam could. In the first scenario, terrorists might get them, but with U.S. soldiers patrolling their streets. In the second, Saddam could do as he wanted and give them to terrorists. Kerry preferred the latter. Still does.

And now, a word from our sponsors.

COMPOSITE UPDATE
And I don't like the trends. See the data (Colorado flips to Kerry???) and the Election Sim.

I really expected things to start breaking toward Bush this week. Instead, the numbers are oscillating around dead even, with an ever so slight trend toward Kerry.

ITHACA POLICE BAN US FLAG?

A letter writer to the Ithaca Journal reports that Ithaca's controversial police chief, Lauren Signer, has ordered officers to remove the American flag from their uniform:

Ms. Signer and the deputy chief of the Ithaca Police Department have decided, in their wisdom, to remove the U.S. flag from the police uniform and put a police patch in place of it.

The men and women of the police force have been told that if they do not remove the flag they will be charged with gross insubordination.

I was told that a small pin (which inaccurately depicts the American flag) will be put on the uniform and that because the city buys the uniforms, the "chief can do as she wants."

Ithaca has long claimed to be the "most enlightened city in America," for its extreme liberal policies.

Like most liberals, however, the people of Ithaca equate "enlightened" with "anti-American."

ELECTION SCENARIOS
Gerry Daly outlines the state-by-state paths to victory for Bush and Kerry, first by cutting down the number of battlegrounds to a reasonable number. He lists the following true battleground states:

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Arkansas
New Mexico
Hawaii

You can simplify his scenarios by eliminating some states from the calculus. I think you can safely put Arkansas in Bush's column and Pennsylvania in Kerry's unless the national numbers break one way or the other in the next few days. If either of those states go the other way, then I doubt you'll have to consider too many scenarios to know who is going to win.

Also, you can generally forget about scenarios where Bush wins Minnesota unless he's already got Wisconsin. Minnesota seems well correlated with Wisconsin, but Wisconsin is more Bush favorable. If Bush wins Minnesota, then I guarantee he also wins Wisconsin. But it doesn't work the other way around. So, the only reason to consider Minnesota in Daly's scenarios, is in connection with a Wisconsin win.

Sure, I'm limiting the scenarios based on my gut (and some poll numbers), and Gerry has done a great job laying out the possibilities.

And I do agree that when Tim Russert brings out that stupid greaseboard on election night and drones on about 2 of 3 (OH, FL and PA), he could very well be wrong.

And if it comes down to waiting on Hawaii's polls to close at 11:00 PM EST, somebody come over to my house, feed me about 6 shots of Tequila and put me to bed. I'll be passed the breaking point by then.

WARMED OVER NEWS
The big news of the day was first discovered by embedded NBC reporter Jim Miklaszewski on April 10, 2003. Obviously, this 18 month news story's spontaneous regeneration into "news" is the media's attempt to at an October Surprise to help the Kerry Campaign. Imagine if the news media suddenly decided to spring Kerry's sucker-trip to Nicaragua to cozy up to communist dicatator Daniel Ortega. Same thing.

Our cartoonist's take. Click to enlarge - seems Edwards has some hope for Castro.

SOUTH CAROLINA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Winner: Bush +15.9
Composite Margin: Bush +16.2
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 98%
Best Bush: 63-37
Best Kerry: 47-53
Trend: Republican +17.5
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +12
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +18
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -7

South Carolina has swung around from single digits to high double digits. The latest polls has Bush up 18. There’s no doubt about it, John Edwards will lose his birth state. The question is, by how much.

If exit polls show this race in single digits, then expect a surprise in the Senate race, but because of that Senate race and Edwards’ connection, a better than expected finish for Kerry probably doesn’t mean much. Polls close at 7:00.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

CONNECTICUT


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Winner: Gore +17.5
Composite Margin: Kerry +10.0
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 83%
Best Bush: 50-50
Best Kerry: 67-33
Trend: Democrat +15.7
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? Despite the numbers, no.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Not enough data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -6
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +18

Because of some wild polling results creating a large standard deviation, the probability of Kerry winning Connecticut is calculated at only 83%. But I think his real chances are 100%, as it is for any state where his probability is over 80%. Kerry may not win as substantially as Gore did, but he will win easy.

On election night, if the polls close in Connecticut and the talking heads don’t call it right away for Kerry, then Kerry may be in trouble.

Only twice since 1960 has Connecticut voted more favorably for the Republican than the nation as a whole, in 1984 and 1976 (although 1992 was close). Connecticut is not entirely consistent as polling this year showed. Bush was within 6 in late September but down 15 in mid September. The 6 point difference was the latest result, so maybe something strange is happening. I really don’t think so, but it’s a state to watch when the polls close at 8:00pm. I would say that if Bush is as close as 6 in exit polls, it could be a big night for him. If Kerry leads in the Gore range of 15-20 points, I don’t think that necessarily says anything about any other states.

In short, it may do something funky, but Kerry definitely will win Connecticut.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

OKLAHOMA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Winner: Bush +21.9
Composite Margin: Bush +28.6
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 99%
Best Bush: 65-35
Best Kerry: 43-57
Trend: Republican +21.0
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +28
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +33
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -12

A close Senate race might increase voter turnout and attract Kerry voters who otherwise wouldn’t have shown up, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is closer than my estimated margin of Bush by 28. But if it does go that heavily for Bush – bigger than in 2000 – it shows how Bush could potentially be on the losing side of the electoral college while winning the popular vote. Maybe.

In any case, Oklahoma is safe for Republicans and since 1960 has always been more favorable to Republicans than the nation as a whole.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

COMPOSITE UPDATE
Bush holds a narrow lead. Taking swings over the last month in the national popular vote as standard deviation (a risky proposition), Bush should get between 47.4% and 49.3%, and Kerry would get between 47.1% and 44.9%. Of course, this doesn't tell how undecided will go - my biggest worry right now.

Here's the map for numbers through yesterday (click to enlarge).



Numbers through today are updated in the data page and the Election Simulation.

REAGAN VS KERRY
Remember how Kerry spoke so positively about Ronald Reagan in the debates - as though he liked the guy or something.

Here's a great ad where Reagan "responds".

HAZMAT?
Now why would there by a Hazardous Material Regional Response Team van, two squad cars, an undercover SUV fire vehicle - all emergency lights a-flashin' - and a lot of radio chatter going on right across the street from my office in a residential/apartment neighborhood?

CALIFORNIA


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 55
2000 Winner: Gore +11.8
Composite Margin: Kerry +9.4
Current Category: Strong Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 91%
Best Bush: 48-52
Best Kerry: 60-40
Trend: Democrat +11.5
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +13
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: -3
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +15

Polling showed the race as close as 3 points in California (even closer in some isolated polls that were offset by more believable polls the same week). But anyone who believed California would really be in play hasn’t paid attention to California, and the election of Arnold as Governor certainly wasn’t going to swing the left coast right. Fortunately for Bush, he hasn’t made the mistake of throwing away money on California like he did in 2000. Had he only spent that cash in Wisconsin and Iowa and New Mexico, we might have been spared the hanging, pregnant chad-a-thon.

The last time California was more favorable to a Republican than the nation as a whole was when favorite son Ronald Reagan ran in 1980. But they jumped leftward by 1984 and Democrats have run stronger there than nationally ever since – though not strong enough for Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis (did I mention he was John Kerry’s boss back when Kerry was the Mass. Lt. Governor?).

ALABAMA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Winner: Bush +14.9
Composite Margin: Bush +21.7
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 99%
Best Bush: 62-38
Best Kerry: 47-53
Trend: Republican +15.5
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +21
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +28
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -11

Bush has not polled less than 53% in Alabama all year, and pollsters have been polling Alabama like they thought it was a battleground. It’s not. Kerry has never been above 42% and consistently polls in the low to mid 30s.

In every election since 1988, Alabama has been at least 10 points more favorable to the Republican than voters nationally. Expect the same this year.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

GEORGIA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Winner: Bush +11.7
Composite Margin: Bush +16.9
Current Category: Strong Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 99%
Best Bush: 60-40
Best Kerry: 48-52
Trend: Republican +13.7
Safe: Yes
Can other candidate win? No.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +18
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +22
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -11

Georgia’s electoral votes went to Clinton in 1992 but to Dole in 1996. If Clinton could only win the state once, Kerry will not be able to win it that many times. In each of the last six elections, Georgia has given greater support to the Republican than the nation as a whole.

Bush has polled above 50% in Georgia consistently, with his worst result in June at 49%. Kerry only had 32% in that poll. Kerry has remained in the high 30s to low 40s, never getting over 43%.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE KERRY CAMPAIGN?
This weekend a columnist called Charlie Brooker in the U.K. paper The Guardian wrote this:

On November 2, the entire civilised world will be praying, praying Bush loses. And Sod's law dictates he'll probably win, thereby disproving the existence of God once and for all. The world will endure four more years of idiocy, arrogance and unwarranted bloodshed, with no benevolent deity to watch over and save us. John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Hinckley Jr - where are you now that we need you?

It's astounding that such a thing could have ever gotten past an editor, but it did. Now, The Guardian and Mr. Brooker have apologised, calling it a joke. Sure it was, but it also demonstrates the depths to which the Bush haters have sunk that this could appear in a major newspaper in Europe - and that they'd think it funny.

The last thing the Kerry campaign needs is for such people to give Americans another reason to vote for Bush - to piss off Mr. Brooker and his ilk.

It also can't be helpful to the Kerry campaign for the ongoing vandalization of Bush/Cheney campaign offices or the possible appearance in Ohio of a suspicious ballot so sneaky I'd like to see confirmation in the mainstream press. Until then, I'll assume it's Photoshop work and laugh it off as a joke.

UPDATE: Analyzing the Cuyahoga ballot, it appears either someone photoshopped out the 1 before the 2 and the 4, or the printer screwed up. Probably the former. Still, I wonder why Bush is listed last. Not alphabetical by name or by party.

UPDATE AGAIN: The Cuyahoga County absentee ballot is confusing people and doesn't line up properly, according to the AP. No telling if it is for the reason in the above linked sample. Cuyahoga county, for some reason, does not have the absentee sample ballot on its website, and the sample ballot for election day doesn't include numbers or arrows so we can't tell how the chads will align.

COMPOSITE UPDATE
Composite national and state numbers are updated. Thirteen national polls considered. 108 state polls in the last week alone (total of 792 since March). Thirty-three states polled in the last week.

Most interesting: Gore won Hawaii by 18 points. Two recent polls show Bush up 0.7 and Bush up 1. Kerry was up 7 in August.