FUN 'N HEELS?
From some sports guy's idle speculation:

2. North Carolina: Now, here's the perfect fit. Tar Heels head coach John Bunting had a nice upset win over Miami last Saturday; the school is selling pieces of the goalposts on its Web site. In three-and-a-half years in Chapel Hill, Bunting is 17-28, but just 9-23 since finishing 8-5 in his first season. He's on the hot seat. North Carolina has the financial resources to pay Spurrier and to make a commitment to winning (the UNC weight room is like Club Med). Heck, the school opened its checkbook for Mack Brown, and he almost got the Heels over the top in the mid-'90s, but they kept running into Florida State at the peak of Bobby Bowden's dynasty.

Back then, Bowden told me, "There are only a few schools that are capable of winning the national championship. North Carolina is one of them.'' The weather in Chapel Hill is good enough to run a passing game and attract players from Florida. And it's not exactly foreign territory for Spurrier; he won an ACC title at Duke. Best of all, by winning at North Carolina, Spurrier would get the same type of adulation he got for resurrecting Florida. It would all be new and special and how many coaches get to play the savior twice in their careers?

I don't know. You beat N.C. State. You beat Miami. You spank Florida State a few years back. It's hard to fire a guy that seems to be moving up, as opposed to another local coach, who's moving down but not on the "hot seat".

Let's wait and see if Bunting can be the Hokies.

BETTER FINISH THE UPDATE
Blogger wasn't functioning much of yesterday, so we were left with a bit of a gloat even after Kerry's responsible concession. Now, it is incumbent upon the party that was supported by a minority of the people to reach across the aisle.





Total:

Bush –279
Kerry - 252
Not called - 7 (Iowa)

Iowa has not been called yet, but Bush leads in the count. If Bush wins Iowa, Federal Review only missed one state. Wisconsin. Which was ridiculously close. My popular vote prediction, based on the composite and my methodology for allocating undecideds was very close. I predicted a Bush win of 50.5 to 48.5. And my monte carlo simulation seemed more accurate than some of those egghead math professors and liberal partisans that you'll find online. But I will say - Sam Wang is The Man. But he shouldn't have mucked things up with his undecided guessing. Believe the numbers. Figures don't lie.

My arm hurts from patting myself on the back, so I'll have to post an analysis of my projections and numbers later.

TALK ABOUT LOUSY TIMING...

Steve Carver, in a typical liberal rant in today's Ithaca Journal, refers to President Bush as "our unelected president."

A day late and about three million votes off there, Steverino.

Total
Bush – 279
Kerry – 225

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 279
Kerry – 225

I've seen enough and I didn't screw up 2000, so I'm comfortable calling these.

And, to reiterate, the last refuge of the loser. The provisional ballot that you have to win by more than 80-20.

Gore held out because Florida was within 1,000. Kerry is down by more than 100,000. Big freakin' difference. Does Don Kerriote have no advisors that aren't afraid to tell him the truth? Apparently not.

Total
Bush – 269
Kerry – 225

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 225

The last refuge of the loser. The provisional ballot that you have to win by more than 80-20.

Gore held out because Florida was within 1,000. Kerry is down by more than 100,000. Big freakin' difference. Does Don Kerriote have no advisors that aren't afraid to tell him the truth? Apparently not.

Total
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Federal Review projection still holds.

Total
Bush – 269
Kerry – 221

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Federal Review projection still holds.

Total
Bush – 266
Kerry – 211

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Total
Bush – 269
Kerry – 221

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Federal Review projection still holds.

Total
Bush – 269
Kerry – 221

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Federal Review projection still holds.

Total
Bush – 246
Kerry – 211

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 249
Kerry – 211

REMEMBER 2000
Here comes the bullshit. Votes are counted, Democrats lose, Democrats claim votes have not been counted.

So much for Democracy.

Oh yeah.

Total
Bush – 246
Kerry – 206

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 249
Kerry – 207

Based on the projections thus far tonight, Bush has a 92.2% probability of winning the election. Not statistically significant until it's 95%, but I like the President's chances.

Total
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 269
Kerry – 211

Federal Review projection still holds.

WHO HAS IRKSOME BOWELS?
Not North Carolina. Not the Senate.

Total
Bush – 246
Kerry – 199

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 249
Kerry – 207

I don't like calling Montana this late. But they are being conservative. For a change.

And right now, the Federal Review projections are holding 100%. Though some gimmes for Kerry like Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon and Minnesota are too close to call.

Total
Bush – 234
Kerry – 133

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 240
Kerry – 207

Total
Bush – 224
Kerry – 112

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 240
Kerry – 186

This blows the Stinging-Nettle projection of K311-B227.

Total
Bush – 213
Kerry – 112

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 229
Kerry – 186

FEDERAL REVIEW PROJECTION


Total
Bush – 198
Kerry – 112

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 223
Kerry – 186

Total
Bush – 162
Kerry – 112

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 196
Kerry – 186

Total
Bush – 108
Kerry – 77

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 196
Kerry – 186

Total
Bush – 74
Kerry – 77

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 183
Kerry – 186

Total
Bush – 66
Kerry – 77

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 183
Kerry – 186

Total
Bush – 39
Kerry – 3

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 183
Kerry – 171

FIRST GOOD SIGN FOR KERRY?
South Carolina and Virginia not called. Do their polls not close until later?

UPDATE: CBS says it's Insufficient Data from Exit polls, not Too Close to Call.

Well, I hope that's the case.

Total
Bush – 34
Kerry – 3

Min. Expected Electoral Votes
Bush – 183
Kerry – 171

A DAY AT THE POLLS
Taking a break from observing the goings on at my precinct.

Everything seems to be running smoothly here in Cary, NC, though the 1 Dem and 2 UNA judges don't seem to concerned about making sure Morrisville voters get the correct ballots or that partisan "voter guides" aren't left at the voting tables. And the provisional ballot process is a snafu - just hope the election board can sort them out. I was very entertained by two boxes of completed, voted ballots sitting unattended for about 5 minutes. They got locked up, though. Heck, the machine had already tabulated them.

Anyway, the moveon.org guys were there in their black T-shirts and english/spanish encouragement to report difficulties in voting. Like they expected a bunch of rich white guys with billyclubs to be beating immigrants who yearned to breathe free. Funny thing is, I think they really believe some of their BS. Dude, Republicans just don't have the time or the energy to pull off vote fraud or voter suppression. But someone has time in Philly, it seems.

And what's with you Kerry supporters? Sure, DrFrankLives is rather clean cut, but the ones at my precinct looked like they couldn't find the shower this morning or this week. And hateful too. The Republicans were kidding around, talking about the non-partisan donuts, while the Dems were grousing about this and that, shooting mean looks at voters who refused their Democratic judge voter guides. Even heard one respectable fellow tell his 4 year old son that they don't vote for Republicans because they are "evil bastards".

Let go of your hate. It only leads to the dark side.

ELECTION NIGHT VIEWING GUIDE

THE INTERACTIVE ELECTION VIEWING GUIDE is now available.

Sometime this weekend or as late as Monday, I'll be uploading an excel spreadsheet that serves as an Interactive Election Night Viewing Guide.

As states are called during election night, you'll simply input an x by the state for the particular candidate and the guide will compute how well your guy is doing. You'll not only see how many electoral votes he has earned, you'll also see if he is on track to win. That way you don't have to try to do all that complicated math about Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and New Mexico. Don't forget Arkansas. or Colorado. Or Nevada. Or Florida. Besides, if you are like me, a few hours into the evening, you will be incapable of doing any math.

And once you see this, you can tune out Tim Russert and his silly chalkboard with Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida scrawled on it. After all, either candidate could win without getting 2 of those 3, and the Viewing Guide will make that clear.

Click here to see the instructions to the Guide and get a flavor of what the Guide is like. I'm still tweaking the code and getting my predictions ready (which will also be tracked).

I'm going to keep this bumped to the top, so ignore the posted date.

FINAL COMPOSITE (WITH UNDECIDEDS ALLOCATED)
All numbers supported by the original methodology. And I think it is right. Click to enlarge.



State by state predictions and numbers are below. Just scroll down. Go ahead.

And go vote.

And to the Kerry supporters: It could go either way, but regardless of the result, we should work together to make sure the election process is secure. That will start with quality control in the registration process. There needs to be some way to verify identity and residence. Right now, most states do nothing to verify these things. Consider, if you are opposed to quality control in registration and voting, then you are encouraging fraud.

Go vote. And God Bless America.

And remember to come back here after the election for quality political discussion. We have lively participation in our comments from both sides, and some changes are coming. We may even bring in some regulars from the left.

PENNSYLVANIA


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Winner: Gore +4.2
Composite Margin: Kerry +1.9
Current Category: Toss-up Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 62%
Best Bush: 52-48
Best Kerry: 56-44
Trend: Democrat +2.9
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +4
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +3
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +7

Now were into the really tough ones. With a composite poll margin in Kerry’s favor of a mere 1.9 points, Pennsylvania has become more of a toss-up than I expected. I was sure this would be an easy win for Kerry – and it still may. Heck, if you have greater turnout in downtown Philly than there are registered voters, you can accomplish anything.

What has caused the state to move Bush’s way over recent weeks? Kerry led by double digits in some polls back in July and now Bush has polled at the 50% level in some recent polls. Kerry’s recent polling has hovered between 47 and 50, while Bush’s tends to be between 46 and 49. That looks like a Kerry state, unless the undecideds break for Bush. And who’s to say they won’t? After all, the economic numbers predict a big Bush win but we know it will be close. All bets are off. Flip a coin. But if I had to bet, this trending toss-up state (Democrats have been losing their advantage gradually since their high point in 1984), will finally go for Kerry.

But I won’t be shocked if Bush pulls it out.

FLORIDA


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Bush +0.0
Composite Margin: Bush +2.3
Current Category: Toss-up Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 64%
Best Bush: 54-46
Best Kerry: 54-46
Trend: Republican +0.3
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Even
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +7
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +6

Let us simply pray that whoever wins this, it’s absolutely clear. But I’m not going to count on it. Polls this week show Kerry up 5 and Bush up 8. Others show a tie. But the average is clear. Bush leads. Tonight. On November 1. In October, Kerry has polled as low as 42 and as high as 50. Bush has polled as low as 44 (once) and as high as 51. Kerry’s numbers just aren’t as high. Bush wins.

I just hope no one complains that I’ve called Florida too early. I remind the folks in the panhandle that you have until 8 pm EST on Tuesday to vote. Democrats vote Wednesday.

OHIO


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Gore +0.2
Composite Margin: Bush +0.6
Current Category: Toss-up Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 52%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 55-45
Trend: Republican +0.2
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +2
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +9

The Bush campaign was so sure about Ohio that for three weeks in last Sept and early Oct, the President didn’t show up. Instead he was trying to make inroads in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. All of those states got a lot closer. Ohio did too. But since Bush’s return, he has led in 9 of the last 10 polls. Zogby has Bush up 6. Gallup has Kerry up 4. One of them is going to be wrong.

Of those 10 polls, Bush has polled at 46 once, and between 48 and 50 in the rest. Kerry has polled at 50 once, and between 43 and 49 the rest of the way.

A couple of things to remember about Ohio. If Bush loses, he can still win. The best path is by winning Florida, Wisconsin and either Iowa or New Mexico. Bush won’t win Pennsylvania if he loses Ohio. It would be a big change in the way the race has polled and I just don’t see it happening.

Also, pay attention to get out the vote efforts and claims of fraud or voter intimidation. When one party does not want people watching election judges, then they have something to hide. As of now, it is unclear if the 6th Circuit has ruled to permit the long standing practice of allowing election observers in Ohio. The thing about election observers, they only intimidate fraud – not legal voters. If legal voters would be intimidated by toothless observers, then they would certainly be intimidated by election judges who man the polls. Worry, when one party does not want polls observed and when one party does not want voters’ identity to be verified.

We’ll find out if tomorrow if we can have a fair election in the United States. I pray that we can, and that whoever wins, the result is clear and the lawyers go home – and we reform the process to return the registration function to the Board of Elections alone and to require picture identification to vote. Imagine how much that would help the legitimacy of the process.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

MINNESOTA


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Gore +2.4
Composite Margin: Kerry +1.5
Current Category: Toss-up Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 62%
Best Bush: 54-46
Best Kerry: 56-44
Trend: Democrat +2.1
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +4.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: Tie
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +9

Here’s a little trick for your understanding of election night returns. If Bush wins Minnesota, then he’s won Wisconsin. If Kerry wins Wisconsin, then he wins Minnesota. Or they split, as I’m predicting.

A lot of folks were surprised when Minnesota was as close as it was in 2000. Even Dukakis won Minnesota in 1988. But has been trending Republican, by giving less support each year compared to the national vote since 1984. But despite that trend, it has still favored the Democrat by a greater margin than the nation has in every election since 1960. Undecideds would have to break seriously for the President to change that.

In recent polls, Bush has been getting support between 44% and 48%. Kerry has been between 45% and 52%. That tells me that, barring a surprise – or Bush wrapping up The Big Three and depressing Minnesota Democrats – then Kerry will win.


WISCONSIN


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Gore +0.2
Composite Margin: Bush +0.6
Current Category: Toss-up Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 52%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 55-45
Trend: Republican +0.2
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +2
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +9

It took a lot of polls showing Bush ahead before I'd believe it. Now I do.

If Minnesota has been trending less Democrat, then Wisconsin is clearly trending more Republican. After supporting Dukakis in 1988 by 12 points more than the nation did, it was more Republican in 1992 and in 2000 (barely). Bush has taken the lead in Wisconsin, hitting the 48, 49 and 50 level. Kerry’s recently been polling from 44 to 48, with one bump to 51. Yep, this one could go either way. Will “Lambert” Field offend enough Packers fans to win this for Bush. Something will do it for Bush.

If Bush loses Ohio, he has to have Wisconsin. He’ll get it either way.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

HAWAII


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Winner: Gore +18.2
Composite Margin: Kerry +0.9
Current Category: Toss-up Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 51%
Best Bush: 53-47
Best Kerry: 71-29
Trend: Democrat +2.9
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bad data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +1
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +10

With so few polls in Hawaii this year, it is almost impossible to call. And with as many electoral votes as New Hampshire, it has had very few visits. Will Dick Cheney’s appearance this weekend swing the state finally to the Republicans, when traditionally, the Democrat candidate does significantly better here than in the nation as a whole? But with one poll in September showing a 10 point Kerry lead, and 2 polls in October showing Bush barely up – and a lot of undecideds, I just can’t believe that Bush can pull it out.

Geez, Gore won by 18! Kerry may win by 10. Bush could win by 5. Who knows. Call it Kerry and wait for the polls to close at 11:00 PM Eastern.


IOWA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Winner: Gore +0.3
Composite Margin: Bush +1.5
Current Category: Toss-up Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 60%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 55-45
Trend: Democrat +1.6
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +2
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +4
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +8

Here’s another state that didn’t swing toward Bush until late in the season. Perhaps undecideds are breaking toward the President. And Zogby has been pretty much alone in showing any kind of lead for Kerry in Iowa since September.

Recent polling shows support for Bush at between 48 and 50 and for Kerry between 44 and 49. Once again, Kerry needs to make a big move among undecideds to pull it out, and as I’ve said before, the data doesn’t really support the massive allocation of undecideds to the challenger.

Bush wins this, and he may need if he can’t win Ohio.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

COLORADO


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Winner: Bush +8.4
Composite Margin: Bush +3.1
Current Category: Lean Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 66%
Best Bush: 59-41
Best Kerry: 51-49
Trend: Republican +8.0
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +2
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +10
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +4

Although his margin has dropped consistently, Bush has led pretty much all year in Colorado. Zogby’s traditional polling has given Kerry the slightest of leads in recent days, right before swinging back to Bush. All other pollsters see it the same way – Bush leads. Here’s another state where Kerry can never reach 50% in the polls and Bush polls consistently right at that level.

A Bush win in a close race would be consistent with historic trends in Colorado, which has voted more favorably for the Republican candidate each year than the nation as a whole.

I can see being wrong on this one, but I’d be shocked.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

NEW MEXICO


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Winner: Gore 0.1
Composite Margin: Bush +1.7
Current Category: Lean Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 58%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 55-45
Trend: Democrat +0.9
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +8 (bad data)
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +4
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +7

A close 2000 state that took almost as long to certify its result as Florida, but without the media spotlight. New Mexico seemed to break open for the President in just the last 3 weeks, although Zogby is being more reluctant to consistently see the move. The polls are about split on who’s leading, but Bush leads by more, generally, than Kerry does. I’ll call that a lean toward Bush.

Additionally, except for 1988 and 1992, New Mexico supports the Republican more strongly than the nation as a whole – though just barely in 2000.

New Mexico rejoins its western brethren, so count on Bush taking New Mexico this year, despite the popularity of Gov. Richardson.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

NEVADA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Winner: Bush +3.5
Composite Margin: Bush +4.3
Current Category: Lean Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 87%
Best Bush: 57-43
Best Kerry: 53-47
Trend: Republican +4.2
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +2
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +5
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +1

With visions of nuclear waste fear mongering and Mr. Personality Harry Reid dancing in their heads, Democrats have believed all year that Nevada was winnable. And don't forget those Zogby Interactive polls, which were the only polls ever showing Kerry ahead - aside from one solitary SurveyUSA poll in July. During October, Bush has polled between 49-52 while Kerry is lodged between 42 and 47 – topping out once at 48 in a SurveyUSA poll. Plus, history favors Mr. Bush, as the Republican has performed better in Nevada than nationally every year since 1964. It was better for Democrats in 1960, and John Kerry is no supply-sider, anti-communist John Kennedy.

I can see being wrong on this one, but I'd be shocked.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

MICHIGAN


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 17
2000 Winner: Gore +5.1
Composite Margin: Kerry +2.8
Current Category: Leans Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 68%
Best Bush: 51-49
Best Kerry: 56-44
Trend: Democrat +4.3
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +6
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +4
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +10

Michigan was not supposed to be this close. Bush has seldom led in the polls (but one poll says he's up 1 today), and it is clear that Kerry's lead has been eroding consistently throughout the year. This explains the Bush campaign's late season attention to Michigan. The problem for the optimists at Bush HQ, is that Kerry has polled between 47-51 in Michigan over the last month, while Bush's numbers have ranged from the low 40s to a high of 47. Something has to break for Bush to take a lead (polling suggests that would be low turnout of black voters). I don’t see it happening and predict a Kerry win with much confidence.


MISSOURI


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Winner: Bush +3.3
Composite Margin: Bush +4.9
Current Category: Lean Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 80%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 51-49
Trend: Republican +3.3
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +3
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +11
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +1

President Bush won Missouri by 3 points in 2000, despite blatant fraud when a dead man served as plaintiff in order to convince a judge to keep the polls open in certain select Democrat precincts in St. Louis until midnight. Oddly, right as the TRO was issued, Jesse Jackson was on a prerecorded phone call informing Democrats that the polls were staying open.

One would hope the Republicans are going to have judges staked out this year so there are no more ex parte hearings.

Bush has consistently polled between 48 and 52 in Missouri, while Kerry has moved between 44 and 47. Notice, no overlap. Kerry has not led in any poll except Zogby Interactive since July. That explains why he has long since pulled out.

The only way Bush does not win Missouri is if Kerry wins nationally by about 4 points or by fraud. I wonder if their afraid of poll observers in Missouri like they are in Ohio.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

ARKANSAS


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Winner: Bush +5.4
Composite Margin: Bush +5.8
Current Category: Lean Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 82%
Best Bush: 56-44
Best Kerry: 51-49
Trend: Republican +2.0
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Kerry +3
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +9
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: Tie

Bill Clinton's home state goes for Bush, yet again. Historically, Arkansas has been anything but consistent, being more favorable to the Democrat one year and to the Republican the next. But this year, Bush has consistently led in the polls, regularly picking up the support of 50% and more. Kerry can’t seem to get above the mid 40s, unless Zogby's robots are answering the poll.

Pretty high confidence on this one. Bush wins.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

NEW HAMPSHIRE


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Winner: Bush +1.3
Composite Margin: Kerry +3.6
Current Category: Lean Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 74%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 54-46
Trend: Republican +0.3
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +4
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +2
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +9

President Bush won New Hampshire in 2000 and therefore the Presidency (other states had something to do with it too). John Kerry won the New Hampshire primary after a year of campaigning, and went on to win the Democratic nomination. Historically, Republicans have performed better in New Hampshire than they have nationally in every election since 1960, except for the 1964 Johnson landslide and 1996 – when Clinton had a 1 point larger margin over Dole than he had nationally. Vermont, on the other hand has consistently supporter the Democrat by a greater margin than the nation in each year since 1980. Maine has done so less frequently, but in each year since 1992. New Hampshire showed it’s independence in 2000, but it will go as Vermont and Maine go this year.

On election night. Watch Maine. If Maine is too close to call, then I suspect that Bush will pull it out in New Hampshire. I would bet against it.

Bush has led in individual polling but as much as 9, but never posted a better weekly composite than +2. it will be close, but unless Bush shows broad strength on election night, he'll lose New Hampshire.

I hope I'm wrong. But a loss for Bush in New Hampshire will indicate nothing with respect to his chances in other states.

BEWARE ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM
Unlike many aggregators of state by state polling data, Electoral-Vote.com reports only those polls that it wants to report - or that it sees. So many others (many better ones are tracked weekly at unfutz), apply a methodology without regard to result. Last week I noticed selected use of Zogby in those states where he showed a Kerry lead and another pollster in those states where Zogby did not show a Kerry lead.

Today, for instance, Electoral-vote.com's scoreboard is Kerry 298, Bush 231. No, I don't like that result, but that's not the problem. The site attempts to report only the latest poll result for each state. It is what it is. It isn't attempting to make sense of the polls at all - the way a meta-analysis approach as done here at Federal Review does.

He lists Florida as Kerry +1 citing the Oct 31 Zogby poll. But, guess what. Quinnipiac came out with a poll today, taken through Oct 31, showing Bush up 8. Other Florida polls this week showed it Even, Bush +4, Kerry +1.6, Bush +5, Bush +4. Federal Review has the race as a Bush lead of 2.7. Which information is more useful?

Similarly, in Wisconsin, Elctoral-vote.com uses an Oct 31 Zogby number showing Kerry up 7. Here, he is true to his methodology of only using the latest. But on Oct 30, Gallup showed Bush up 8. The race didn't change that much between the 2 days. Other Wisconsin polls this week: Kerry +1, Bush +3, Bush +3, Kerry +2. The Federal Review composite says Bush +0.3. A tie, basically. Which bit of information is more useful?

NEW JERSEY


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Winner: Gore +15.8
Composite Margin: Kerry +5.4
Current Category: Lean Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 74%
Best Bush: 50-50
Best Kerry: 66-34
Trend: Democrat +14.4
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +12 (?)
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +1
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +14

Nobody (almost nobody) thought that New Jersey would be a battleground state. But New Jersey has shown a little excitement this election season, with Kerry leading by as many as 20 and Bush up by as much as 4. It has also proven to be one of the more difficult states to poll, as evidenced by the wildly varying results that give margin of error a new meaning. This week alone, polls show Kerry up by 12, 5, 4, 12 and 7. In all the polling, Bush never really gets out of the mid 40s and Kerry is polling above 50% in some polls out this week. The Composite as of today is Kerry by 5, and the average of polls released since last Thursday is Kerry by 6.

That tells me that something wonderful will have to happen for Bush to win (is my bias showing?). I don’t expect the polls to be that wrong.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

WEST VIRGINIA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Winner: Bush +6.3
Composite Margin: Bush +7.2
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 78%
Best Bush: 58-42
Best Kerry: 52-48
Trend: Republican +4.4
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bad data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +8
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +6

In 2000, West Virginia broke with a long history of being a safe Democrat state (it only went Republican in the landslides of 1972 and 1984), and gave Bush a 6 point win. That was also the first year since 1972 that the Republican performed better in West Virginia than nationally.

The same winning candidate is on the ticket and a less south-attractive candidate is running for the Democrats. While Kerry has led in some West Virginia polls, his last lead was in July. Kerry can’t seem to get past 47% in West Virginia, while the President has polled between 49 and 52 over the last few months. Kerry could win this, but he won't.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

ARIZONA


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Winner: Bush +6.3
Composite Margin: Bush +11.3
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 88%
Best Bush: 58-42
Best Kerry: 52-48
Trend: Republican +4.7
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? Yes, but unlikely.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bad data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +16
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +1

Arizona began the year as a battleground state and ends it firmly in Bush’s column. Kerry has not led in any Arizona poll since July (a big 1 point lead), and Bush has led in the double digits more often than not – mainly since John McCain began stumping for the President. About half the time, Bush breaks the 50% barrier in polls, going as high as 56.

Kerry only wins Arizona if there's an early landslide in the east that discourages Republicans from turning out. Don’t count on it.

Historically, Arizona favors the Republican candidate by a greater margin than the nation as a hole, but the extent to which it favors the Republican has been getting less and less.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

MAINE


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Winner: Gore +5.1
Composite Margin: Kerry +5.5
Current Category: Lean Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 69%
Best Bush: 54-46
Best Kerry: 59-41
Trend: Democrat +6.3
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +6
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: Tie
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +19

Maine awards its electoral votes be giving 2 to the candidate who wins the state as a whole, and one to the winner of each of its 2 congressional districts. Bush has a chance at getting 1 vote, so listen carefully to the results.

Maine does not consistently favor one party over the other, so it is hard to identify a trend. In polling this year, Bush has ranged from 39 to 47 and Kerry has ranged from 45 to 51, but he hasn’t been consistently above 50. That makes Maine a tossup, but based on recent polling, the candidacy of a new Englander and the trend in more heavily polled New Hampshire, I’m confident that Kerry will take Maine. I suspect, however, it will be closer than the current composite of 5.5 points in Kerry's favor.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

TENNESSEE


Projection: Bush
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Winner: Bush +3.9
Composite Margin: Bush +14.4
Current Category: Advantage Bush
Probability of Bush Win: 88%
Best Bush: 59-41
Best Kerry: 55-45
Trend: Republican +4.8
Safe: Yes.
Can other candidate win? If landslide.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bad data.
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +19
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: -2

I haven’t used Zogby’s interactive polling numbers this year because of the self-selected email-based samples and the apparent oddness of the results. Tennessee is the best evidence that something is wrong with Zogby’s methods. In almost all Tennessee polls this year conducted by traditional methods, Bush’s lead has been in the double digits – and Kerry has never had the lead. Zogby Interactive has consistently shown the race in Tennessee as close and sometimes Kerry has been leading. His latest result is a mere 1.8 point lead for the President. Quite at odds with the results from Mason Dixon (Bush +12), Univ. of Tenn. (Bush +17), SurveyUSA (Bush +22), MTSU (Bush +11). Indeed, Zogby is now conducting traditional tracking polls in a number of battleground states – but not Tennessee. Even he must not believe his Interactive numbers.

History supports the Republican lean of the state as in ever election since 1988, the Republican candidate has performed better in Tennessee than nationally, including the three years when Tennessee native Al Gore was on the ticket in 1992, 1996 and 2000. To believe that this southern state is more like Florida than Kentucky and would become enamored with John Kerry is seriously wishful thinking for the Democrats.

Don’t confuse Zogby Interactive with the more traditional methods that Zogby is now using for some battleground states. I use those traditional Zogby numbers, although Gerry Daly has decided that Zogby is messing with his methodology to conform to his expectations – making his results suspect.

Bush wins Tennessee.

For an explanation of this data, click here.

For regular updates to the Composite State by State Margins, click here.

For regular updates to the Election Simulation, click here.

Note that the map on this page may not be updated as regularly.

OREGON


Projection: Kerry
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Winner: Gore +0.4
Composite Margin: Kerry +4.9
Current Category: Lean Kerry
Probability of Kerry Win: 80%
Best Bush: 55-45
Best Kerry: 55-45
Trend: Democrat +0.4
Safe: No.
Can other candidate win? Yes.
National Popular Vote for other candidate to win: Bush +6
Best Weekly Polling Result for Bush: +1
Best Weekly Polling Result for Kerry: +8

In the last 2 elections, the margin between the candidates in Oregon has mirrored the national margin, therefore, no party has any built in advantage here. The race was virtually tied in 2000 and Oregon has remained on almost everyone’s list of battleground states this year. Bush has led by as many as 5 in individual polls, but Bush never averaged a lead of larger than 1 point in any week when multiple polls were released, while the occasional poll has given Kerry double digit leads.

Kerry is polling near 50 in Oregon while Bush seems to top out at about 47. Unless some kind of landslide starts forming on election day, it is hard to see how things could break in the President’s favor. Therefore, Federal Review projects Kerry to win Oregon’s 7 electoral votes.

THEY DON'T LOOK THRILLED, DO THEY?

Is it my imagination, or are there a lot of photographs out there of John Kerry trying to look "like one of the guys" and receiving derisive looks from the "guys" with him?