Apple will release a widescreen Intel-based iBook at MacWorld this year.
Obviously.
Alito will be handily confirmed to the Supreme Court.
I agree. The opposition is gaining no traction even with release after release of his prior work for the justice department.
Rick Santorum will lose to Bob Casey in PA, but by a narrower margin then one would think.
I suspect Santorum's support is better than he polls, but he will lose, much to Brian's delight.
Saddam Hussein will be found guilty of genocide and sentenced to death by an Iraqi court.
The real prediciton here isn't the result, but the timing. Will it happen in 2006? I think so.
The New York Times will abandon their TimesSelect experiment and realize that people won’t pay to read Maureen Dowd’s bleatings. In an ironic twist, the NYT will start a blog.
Absolutely dead on.
Video podcasting won’t take off. Video porn podcasting will.
Some video podcasting may be successful without the risque content, but it won't be as widespread as audio podcasting, primarily because of the time it takes to produce the video. We have already seen a number of audio podcasters who just couldn't keep up with the production demands.
Downloadable TV will take off big-time as Apple announces a media center device capable of playing downloadable HD-quality video - shows like Battlestar Galactica will top 1,000,000 downloads before the end of the year.
This pay per view series model will presage the future of television. With the prevelance of DVRs, the value of television advertising is dropping and advertisers are beginning to realize this. So, this alternate cash flow model may help some marginally rated shows stay around because of a fan base willing to download. But it will be a while before we see professionally produced television shows available only on the internet. More suprisingly, people will start using their Windows PCs and XBox 360s as the media center Jay predicts for Apple. Thus, the XBox 360 will actually evolve to more than a game console and start to become the set-top box that Microsoft has long craved.
Firefox’s market share will continue to rise.
Yes, if my wife was willing to download it and chuck Internet Explorer, then Jay's right.
Windows Vista will be released, but will see anemic sales.
This assumes Vista will be on time. I wouldn't be surprised if it is pushed into 2007. In any case, it will do better than Millennium Edition but not as well as XP. In other words, not as poorly as Jay is probably estimating.
Meanwhile, Apple’s marketshare will continue to rise with the new Intel-based Macs.
Having the Intel based chips will eliminate one of the main fears PC users have about moving to the Mac, and they will start moving.
The balance of power in Congress will remain roughly where it is, but the GOP will lose a few House seats and at least 2 Senate seats. I also am not predicting the overly optimistic scenario of Republican gains. While the national Democratic party may be damaged by its Moveon balast, these races will be decided candidate by candidate.
Every candidate endorsed by Kos will lose.
Wouldn't that be nice? But who knows.
Donald Rumsfeld will resign as Secretary of Defense by Spring. The Democrats, not able to control themselves, will threaten a filibuster of his replacement, causing their polling numbers to plummet.
I don't think he will resign. However, if he does, he'll agree to stay on until his replacement is confirmed, thereby making a filibuster a Rumsfeld retention program.
By the end of 2006, women will represent a majority of bloggers.
They don't already?
Iran will test a nuclear weapon.
Wrong. They are not that close. But I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to fake a test.
Israel will officially announce that they have nuclear weapons, and will state that any attack against Israel will result in nuclear retaliation.
No, they will not make such an announcement. Whether they make this clear diplomatically through an intermediary between Iran and Israel is another matter entirely.
Al-Qaeda will shift their focus from Iraq to trying to provoke a war between Israel and the Arab world.
I think al Qaeda would like to, but Hamas, Hizb’Allah, Islamic Jihad and Fatah won't give up their control of what occurs within the Israeli borders. instead, al Qaeda will continue focus on Iraq with the occasional tantrum in Europe and SE Asia.
Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi will commit suicide after being cornered by Iraqi troops along the Iraq/Syria border.
Sounds like wishful thinking, but I do believe this will happen. Slightly more likely than US or Iraqi troops simply killing him. Much more likely than capture.
President Emilie Lahoud of Lebanon will be forced to resign as Lebanon continues to fight back against Syria.
I hope so, but haven't studied up enough on the situation to assess. Sounds reasonable.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be reelected in Israel, but by a narrow margin, forcing him to work with Binyamin Netanyahu in a tension-filled coalition government.
I think it also reasonably likely he'll have to work with labor.
Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad will be assassinated, with Iranian officials blaming Israel for his death. A more reformist leader will take his place, but Iran will remain largely totalitarian.
The first part is wishful thinking. He won't be assassinated, but the reform movement will pick up pace and even Europe will sound more threatening than expected.
The Palestinian Authority will collapse as Fatah, Islamic Jihad, and Hizb’Allah end up fighting each other for control. Mahmoud Abbas will be forced to flee as members of his government are rounded up and killed. Israel will announce that they are sealing all borders with Gaza and the West Bank until the violence subsides.
No. They'll simply have some f'd up coalition government that looks as corrupt as ever.
Osama bin Laden will not be captured, nor will Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Agreed. But the conventional wisdom will turn to the belief that bin Laden is dead, either from the Pakistan earthquake, natural causes or US bombs. No body will be found.
The US GDP will grow at 3+% in 2006. The EU economy will barely grow at all. Western European companies will increasingly rely on outsourcing to Eastern Europe, causing the EU to try and stem the flow, creating an even wide chasm between East and West in the EU.
Agreed on all points. This may make western Europe lash out and try to assume even greater control of all EU economies.
Labels: Battlestar Galactica, Microsoft, Supreme Court, Television
