FederalReview
2008 Nomination Barometer
	2008 Democratic Nomination				2008 Generic Head to Head
	Date of Most Recent Data:	20-Dec-04			Date	Republican	Democrat
					20-Dec-04	45	44
Rank	Potential Candidate	Support Factor	Last Rank		15-Dec-04	43	41
1	Sen. Hillary R. Clinton (NY)	39	1
2	Sen. John F. Kerry (MA)	20	3
3	Sen. Johnny R. Edwards (NC)	19	2
4	Sen. B. Evans ("Evan") Bayh III (IN)	13	4
5	Gov. Mark R. Warner (VA)	5	7
6	Former VP Albert A. Gore, Jr. (TN)	5	6
7	Former Gov. Howard B. Dean, MD (VT)	4	5
8	Sen.-Elect Barack Obama (IL)	3	9		President Bush Approval Rating Composite
9	Gen. (Ret) Wesley K. Clark (AR)	3	8
10	Rep. Harold E. Ford, Jr. (TN)	2	10			Approve	Disapprove	Trend
					15-Dec-04	50.1	46.6	Down Strong
					15-Dec-04	50.3	46.4	Down Strong
	2008 Republican Nomination				14-Dec-04	50.4	45.6	Down Strong
					13-Dec-04	50.7	45.3	Down
	Date of Most Recent Data:	20-Dec-04			12-Dec-04	51.0	45.4	Down
					8-Dec-04	51.9	44.3	Up Strong
Rank	Potential Candidate	Support Factor	Last Rank		8-Dec-04	51.1	45.3	Up Strong
1	Former Mayor Rudolph W.L. Giuliani III (NY)	29	1		3-Dec-04	51.4	44.9	Up Strong
2	Sen. John S. McCain III (AZ)	27	2		21-Nov-04	51.7	45.4	Up Strong
3	Sen. William H. ("Bill") Frist, MD (TN)	15	4		21-Nov-04	52.0	45.6	Up Strong
4	Gov. John E. ("Jeb") Bush (FL)	14	3		19-Nov-04	51.1	46.4	Up Strong
5	Gov. William F. ("Bill") Owens (CO)	13	5		17-Nov-04	50.7	46.1	Up Strong
6	Gov. George E. Pataki (NY)	10	7		13-Nov-04	50.1	47.4	Up
7	Gov. W. Mitt Romney (MA)	9	6		10-Nov-04	50.3	46.4	Up Strong
8	Secretary Colin L. Powell (NY)	4	8
9	Nat. Sec. Advisor Condoleeza Rice, PhD (AL)	3	9
Polls include the following
Date	Pollster
2-Nov-04	McLaughlin & Assoc
10-Nov-04	Gallup
10-Nov-04	Gallup (alternate listing)
16-Nov-04	Tradesports
16-Nov-04	McLaughlin & Assoc
17-Nov-04	Fox/Opinion Dynamics
29-Nov-04	Tradesports
12-Dec-04	Quinnipiac
15-Dec-04	Fox/Opinion Dynamics
20-Dec-04	Tradesports
The FederalReview 2008 Nomination Barometer is not a straight composite or meta-analysis of polls, but rather, it is intended to gauge the general level of support or chances of a particular potential candidate of gaining his or her party's nomination in 2008.  A meta-analysis is impossible because polling does not always include the same potential candidates, and some polling is conducted using a list of, say, 10 candidates as well as a list of who the pollster thinks are the top two or three.  Thus, in this analysis, we give weight to the pollsters ideas about who the leaders are by including those higher numbers of support for each candidate when the list of potential candidates is reduced.
This far out, the only real utility of this analysis is to get an idea of who the top candidates are as of today.  Not what their current support level is, or whether Clinton is leading Edwards or vice versa (unless I've got Clinton in the 60s and Edwards in the single digits).  And, of course, for entertainment purposes.
We include in the analysis recent polling, as well as data from Tradesports.com.  Together with polling, this should give you some idea who the pundits, speculators and public think are the favorites to win the nomination.  But please, no wagering.
FederalReview's Job Approval Composite for President Bush includes a Trend designation.  If his approval number is up and his disapproval is down, we call this Up Strong.  If Approval is up, but so is disapproval, we call this Up.  The converse applies for Down and Down Strong.  The Trend is calculated on the Slope.
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