I need to revisit my data by state and then I can get everything up here. As we close in on the election, I'm readying my Electoral College Projections / Statistics. Watch this link for the final, regularly updated product.

2004: +6.7% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +13%(D) versus national pop. vote*
2008: Strong Democrat

Trend Since 1976: none
Trend Since 1992: Republican
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 5%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004
Republican wins: 1976, 1980, 1984

Positively correlated states: Alaska, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Washington

Negatively correlated states: Arizona, Hawaii, Rhode Island

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

*I ain't buying this result. The GOP outperformed in 1996 and 2000, but a big jump for the Dems in 2004 causes this result.

2004: +5.0% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +6% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Democrat

Trend Since 1976: none
Trend Since 1992: none
Trend Since 2000: none

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 4%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004
Republican wins: 1980, 1984, 1988

Positively correlated states: California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Washington

Negatively correlated states: Louisiana, Mississippi

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +23.6% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +22% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Democrat

Trend Since 1976: Democrat
Trend Since 1992: Democrat
Trend Since 2000: Republican

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 16%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976
Republican wins: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Arizona, Hawaii, New Jersey, New York,

Negatively correlated states: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +14.8% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +15% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Republican

Trend Since 1976: Republican
Trend Since 1992: none
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 12%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976
Republican wins: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Iowa, Ohio, Vermont, Wisconsin

Negatively correlated states: Alabama, Tennessee

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +19.3% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +18 (R) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Republican

Trend Since 1976: none
Trend Since 1992: Republican
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 14%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: none
Republican wins: 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Negatively correlated states: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Maryland

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +11.9% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +17%* (R) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Republican

Trend Since 1976: Republican
Trend Since 1992: none
Trend Since 2000: Republican

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 11%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976, 1992, 1996
Republican wins: 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Alabama, Indiana

Negatively correlated states: Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, Vermont, Wisconsin

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

*I think the forecast should be lower. Al Gore's presence on the ticket for 3 elections lowered the GOP margin from historic norms and the sudden jump in 2004 looks like a trend, but is probably a return to normal. I'd suspect around +12% (R) is more appropriate.

2004: +20.5% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +21% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Republican

Trend Since 1976: Republican
Trend Since 1992: Republican
Trend Since 2000: none

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 17%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976
Republican wins: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Negatively correlated states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Virginia

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +44.2% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +45% (R) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Republican

Trend Since 1976: Democrat
Trend Since 1992: Republican
Trend Since 2000: none

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 42%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: none
Republican wins: 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming

Negatively correlated states: California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +23.1% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008 Early Forecast: +30% (D) versus national pop. vote
2008: Strong Democrat

Trend Since 1976: Democrat
Trend Since 1992: none
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 22%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988
Republican wins: 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, Wisconsin

Negatively correlated states: Alabama, Tennessee

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +5.8% (R)
2008 Early Forecast: +4% (R)
2008: Leans Republican

Trend Since 1976: Republican
Trend Since 1992: none
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 1-2%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: none
Republican wins: 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland,

Negatively correlated states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +9.8% (D)
2008 Early Forecast: +12% (D)
2008: Strong Democrat

Trend Since 1976: Democrat
Trend Since 1992: none
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 8-9%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004
Republican wins: 1976, 1980, 1984

Positively correlated states: Alaska, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania

Negatively correlated states: Hawaii

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +10.5% (R)
2008 Early Forecast: +14-15% (R)
2008: Strong Republican

Trend Since 1976: none
Trend Since 1992: Republican
Trend Since 2000: Republican

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 8-9%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 1996
Republican wins: 1984, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states: Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

Negatively correlated states: California, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland

For explanation or terms, see Wyoming entry.

2004: +38.1* (R)
2008 Early Forecast: +39% (R)
2008: Strong Republican**

Trend Since 1976: none
Trend Since 1992: Republican***
Trend Since 2000: Democrat

Opponent Lead in Popular Vote to make state a tossup: 32%

Since 1976
Democrat wins: none
Republican wins: 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

Positively correlated states****: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, West Virginia

Negatively correlated states: Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts






*All numbers are 2-party margin versus national vote. For instance, Bush won Wyoming by 40.6%, which was 38.1% more than his national vote margin of 2.49%. Thus, 38.1 is listed here. In effect, all numbers assume that there is no margin between the Democrat and Republican Candidate in the national popular vote.

** Strong Republican means that if the national popular vote is tied the Republican will win the state even if the forecast margin is off by more than 2 weighted standard deviations. "Lean" means greater than 1 but less than 2 standard deviations. "Tossup" means less than 1 standard deviation.

*** "Democrat" as a trend in a Republican state indicates an expected decline in support for the Republican candidate in that state from the 2004 result, calculated from the date indicated. Of course, in Wyoming, this doesn't matter.

**** If a state is positively correlated with another, then an increase for the Republican in one state will result in a similar increase for the Republican in the positively correlated state. Decreases are similarly correlated. If negatively correlated, than in increase for the Republican in one state tends to mean there's a corresponding increase for the Democrat in the negatively correlated state. So, if the GOP candidate is gaining ground in Wyoming, it is likely he's also gaining in Minnesota but losing ground in Florida.

EVEN MORE detail on what this all means is here.