| Federal Review Election Simulation | ||||||||||||||
| 20,000 trials | ||||||||||||||
| Last Updated: | ||||||||||||||
| November 1, 2004 | ||||||||||||||
| 8:35 PM | ||||||||||||||
| Probable Election Winner: | George W. Bush | John F. Kerry | ||||||||||||
| George W. Bush | ||||||||||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Tie | ||||||||||||
| Probability of Winning | 72.4% | 26.2% | 1.3% | |||||||||||
| Average Electoral Votes | 285 | 253 | 95% Confidence | Lo | Hi | |||||||||
| Maximum Electoral Votes | 367 | 338 | Kerry Range | 203 | 303 | |||||||||
| Minimum Electoral Votes | 200 | 171 | Bush Range | 235 | 335 | |||||||||
| Fed Rev Analysis | 296 | 242 | ||||||||||||
| FR Composite Popular Vote | 48.2% | 46.4% | ||||||||||||
| FR Composite Based on State Predictions **** | 51.1% | 48.9% | ||||||||||||
| EV based upon State to National Poll Correlation | 291 | 247 | ||||||||||||
| State | Fed Rev Analysis (Margin)*** | Margin of Error (Both Candidates) | Probability Bush | Prob Kerry | Prob Bush | Electoral Votes | Bush | Kerry | Weighted Bush EV | Polling 2 weeks ago** | Polling One Week ago** | New Polling Early This Week** | New Polling Late This Week** | |
| Alabama | 18.6% | 9.2% | 100.0% | 2.2% | 97.8% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 24.0 | - | - | 18.0 | |
| Alaska | 28.3% | 5.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | - | - | - | |
| Arizona | 11.3% | 9.4% | 100.0% | 11.7% | 88.3% | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 15.0 | |
| Arkansas | 2.6% | 6.4% | 65.6% | 34.4% | 65.6% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | - | 2.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | |
| California | -8.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 87.9% | 12.1% | 55 | 0 | 55 | 7 | - | (9.0) | (9.0) | (7.0) | |
| Colorado | 3.1% | 7.7% | 65.7% | 34.3% | 65.7% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | (4.0) | 6.0 | |
| Connecticut | -10.0% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 85.9% | 14.1% | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | - | - | - | (10.0) | |
| Delaware | -8.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| District of Columbia | -69.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | - | - | - | |
| Florida | 2.3% | 6.5% | 63.9% | 36.1% | 63.9% | 27 | 27 | 0 | 17 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | |
| Georgia | 15.1% | 6.8% | 100.0% | 1.4% | 98.6% | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 15.5 | 17.5 | - | 14.3 | |
| Hawaii | -0.9% | 11.2% | 47.0% | 53.0% | 47.0% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - | 0.9 | - | - | |
| Idaho | 33.0% | 1.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | - | - | - | |
| Illinois | -12.2% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 95.3% | 4.7% | 21 | 0 | 21 | 1 | - | (8.0) | (12.0) | (13.0) | |
| Indiana | 18.3% | 9.8% | 100.0% | 3.1% | 96.9% | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 16.0 | 19.0 | |
| Iowa | 1.5% | 6.2% | 59.7% | 40.3% | 59.7% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | |
| Kansas | 24.6% | 7.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 19.0 | - | 29.0 | 23.0 | |
| Kentucky | 20.7% | 10.1% | 100.0% | 2.0% | 98.0% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | - | 19.5 | - | 21.0 | |
| Louisiana | 10.0% | 8.9% | 100.0% | 13.1% | 86.9% | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 8.0 | - | |
| Maine | -7.4% | 10.6% | 24.4% | 75.6% | 24.4% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - | (8.5) | - | (8.0) | |
| Maryland | -11.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 88.3% | 11.7% | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 | - | - | (14.0) | (11.0) | |
| Massachusetts | -20.2% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 92.3% | 7.7% | 12 | 0 | 12 | 1 | - | - | - | - | |
| Michigan | -2.5% | 6.3% | 34.4% | 65.6% | 34.4% | 17 | 0 | 17 | 6 | (5.7) | (3.8) | (0.7) | (2.4) | |
| Minnesota | -1.5% | 4.8% | 37.7% | 62.3% | 37.7% | 10 | 0 | 10 | 4 | (2.5) | - | 0.0 | (2.2) | |
| Mississippi | 11.3% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 7.8% | 92.2% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | - | - | - | |
| Missouri | 4.9% | 5.9% | 79.9% | 20.1% | 79.9% | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 | - | 5.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| Montana | 21.5% | 6.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 21.0 | 21.0 | - | - | |
| Nebraska | 29.1% | 2.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | - | 29.0 | - | |
| Nevada | 4.1% | 3.8% | 100.0% | 14.1% | 85.9% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | - | 5.4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | |
| New Hampshire | -3.6% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 71.9% | 28.1% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | (4.0) | (0.8) | (8.8) | (1.8) | |
| New Jersey | -4.9% | 8.5% | 28.1% | 71.9% | 28.1% | 15 | 0 | 15 | 4 | (4.8) | (6.8) | (4.0) | (5.1) | |
| New Mexico | 1.7% | 8.1% | 58.1% | 41.9% | 58.1% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | - | 2.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | |
| New York | -16.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 92.3% | 7.7% | 31 | 0 | 31 | 2 | (23.0) | - | - | (16.5) | |
| North Carolina | 7.7% | 5.6% | 100.0% | 8.5% | 91.5% | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 | - | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.0 | |
| North Dakota | 21.2% | 12.7% | 100.0% | 4.8% | 95.2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | 20.0 | - | - | |
| Ohio | 0.7% | 7.3% | 53.6% | 46.4% | 53.6% | 20 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 1.3 | 0.1 | (0.7) | 0.9 | |
| Oklahoma | 29.8% | 12.6% | 100.0% | 0.9% | 99.1% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 12.0 | 30.0 | 33.0 | 30.0 | |
| Oregon | -4.9% | |||||||||||||