| | |
| McCain | Tossup | Obama |
| 208 | 34 | 296 |

McCain is in Bad ShapeNot exactly a good map for McCain, but a couple of states have moved favorably in his direction.
Georgia and
Florida, each with multiple polls confirming the results, have moved back to Lean McCain. McCain leads in
Florida +4, and in
Georgia +5. If this were the day before the election, those states would be McCain locks (any lead greater than 1 point on election eve is a win under my algorithm). But it isn't the day before the election. A good thing for McCain, as he would lose.
McCain increases his lead in the formerly Democratic
Lousiana. From 9 points to 15.
North Carolina remains ridiculously close, after going for Bush by 13 in 2004, McCain only leads by 4.
Obama picks up
Montana. A state Bush won by 20 in 2004,
Obama leads by 3.5! If McCain is having trouble in Montana, perhaps he does need to worry about
North Dakota. No polls there lately, so it remains a tossup. Obama also maintains his lead in
Virginia, by about 2 points. And you can forget any possibility of McCain being competitive in
Connecticut. One poll back in May had McCain trailing by only 3, now several polls confirm it is just plain out of his reach. Obama leads in
Connecticut now by 20. Kerry won by only 10.
The real story here, is that Obama leads in all of the states that he needs to win. He's put some formerly red states into play, like
Indiana,
Nevada,
Virginia,
Montana,
North Dakota. He's reduced some others to mere leans for the GOP, like North Carolina,
South Dakota,
Georgia and
Alaska. Obama could spend his money running up the score in
Ohio,
Pennsylvania and
Michigan. Then run some ads in
Indiana,
North Carolina and
Virginia to force McCain to fight on his home turf. Electorally, McCain has quite an uphill battle, despite only trailing in the national popular vote by 6.
And what is really painful for the McCain camp, is he could pick up all of the tossups, add
Ohio, and
still lose.
All the gory details are here.
Labels: 2008 Composite Poll, 2008 Electoral Vote