Sure it's early in the season, but Kansas is #1 (seems I had them #1 in football once). In any case, I have the empirically evil Blue Devils at #2 and God's Team, the UNC Tar Heels at #5. Which certainly proves that I don't bias these analyses to favor my teams. Just as I did in the 2004 election (and am preparing for the 2008 election). I just want a logical, reasoned, correct snapshot of today.

Plus, I have conference computer ratings as well, with 10 ACC teams in the top 100, and 6 in the field of 64. Second best conference? The PAC 10, with 8 in the field of 64 (ACC skews high because of some very damn good teams).

So, please give me some props for my OCD hard work.

Labels: Basketball Computer Rankings, Computer Rankings, Football

The top five teams in the computer ratings this week are separated by less than 1 power rating point. They are all about equal. These are, in order, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Hawaii and Ohio St. #6 is Oklahoma - who we know could very well win a national championship game.

So, why is Missouri still #1. They lost to a good team, Oklahoma, twice. They beat undefeated, now one loss, #3 Kansas. They also beat #17 Illinois (who beat #5 Ohio St.).

Oklahoma lost to #55 Colorado and #39 Texas Tech. Their best win other than the 2 wins over Missouri, was against #24 Texas.

What does this prove? The limitation of the computer. Any particular win could be a fluke, but 2, probably not. So, it is unreasonable to think that Missouri should still be ranked higher than Oklahoma. But, on the other hand, should Ohio St. now slip into the National Championship game, when they were beaten by a team that Missouri defeated? The best team Ohio St. played this year, was #17 Illinois - a 7 point loss. Their best win was a 21 point beating of #25 Wisconsin.

So, who should be in the Championship game?

How about Virginia Tech? I have them ranked #2. They have victories over #14 Boston College, #15 Clemson and #23 Virginia. Their only loss other than to Boston College, which they avenged, was a 41 point loss to #7 LSU on September 8 (before VT even knew who their starters were). LSU, on the other hand, lost to #41 Kentucky and #33 Arkansas. And they are on their 3rd string QB now, while VT is relatively healthy.

So, why not Virginia Tech? Well, 2 losses. How about the one loss teams, Ohio St. and Kansas? And the one undefeated team, Hawaii? The computers won't support it, and I doubt the voters will either, but should 2 of those 3 be in the big game?

All in all, this leads to one conclusion. A team capable of proving they are better than everyone, will not be able to try. Only 2 teams will. There should be a college football playoff, and I have seeded the top 8 teams in projected brackets based on my ratings. How much TV money would this get? And would it really reduce the amount of money being paid out to Bowling Green in the GMAC bowl? I think not.

OK, here's the computer top 25.

****UPDATE****
It's official. Ohio State vs. LSU.

See what many other computer football ranking geeks think.

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

What a great weekend so far in College Football!

Overtime games see Arkansas beat LSU (which I didn't have #1, for cryin' out loud), Tennessee over Kentucky (I called Tennesee by 2 - how much did they win by?) and North Carolina over Duke.

And as well as Duke played (I'm shocked by the performance of UNC's defensive coordinator and form Oakland Raiders' DBs coack, Chuck Pagano), and they get into easy field goal range, only to miss and then miss in overtime, it's clear to me that even God makes sure that DOOK SUCKS!

But, to be fair, Ted Roof has finally gotten Duke to turn the corner. They went from losing in ridiculous fashion, to really putting up some points and giving themselves a real chance. Duke can't expect to find the next Spurrier, so they really must give someone some real time, and I bet Ted Roof and get them better if he has another few years. After all, he wants the job - who else would?

And now? Missouri vs. Kansas. The winner will likely be #1. And my predictions say the Jayhawks by 3.4 points with a mere 60% confidence. In other words, a tossup. And if we view Arrowhead as a neutral field, then the Jaywawks by 0.4 points. Oh my, that should be a game. Anytime a basketball school has a real shot, I'm for it. Rock. Chalk.

Finally, the Tar Heels got beat by the N.C. State Rednecks Wolfpack, but the Tar Heels defeated Maryland by 3 and Maryland beat Stite (that's how they say it) by 37!

Next year, the Tar Heels are 8-4 (or better). Maybe led by T.J. Yates, who could win as many as 8 or only 4, but he'll have competition to push him. Then, for real, other teams will be wanting Butch Davis. Watch the young Tar Heels next year. They may be the next Kansas.

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

Yes, the Kansas Jayhawks are Number 1 in the Federal Review College Football Computer Rankings, as well the should be. This system is not intended solely to determine the best team, but also the most deserving team - thus, teams get credit for going undefeated if they play a reasonably difficult schedule (like in the Big 12), but have no fear, Kansas will drop if it doesn't win out. If they do win out, they deserve to be in the Championship game, because they'll have had to go through current #8 Oklahoma.

But, winning isn't everything. Undefeated Hawaii plays in the WAC, and that means they are only #9. If you are looking for pure strength of teams, look at the points ranking on the far right column. There, Oregon was Number 1 - but, they lost this week to Arizona. And I hate putting my predictions up this late, when I include the following:

#7 Oregon by 18.4 at #76 Arizona
Confidence level = 95%

That's a shame. But I do like this prediction:

#108 Notre Dame by 2.8 over #107 Duke
Confidence level = 59%

After all, Dook Sucks.

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

As Virginia Tech takes the field tonight at Georgia Tech, it's a good time to take a look at the latest Computer Rankings. Below are the top 25.

 1     Ohio St.
 2     Boston College
 3     Arizona St.
 4     Kansas
 5     Louisiana St.
 6     Oregon
 7     West Virginia
 8     Oklahoma
 9     Hawaii
10     Missouri
11     Connecticut
12     Virginia Tech
13     South Florida
14     Georgia
15     Boise St.
16     Alabama
17     Virginia
18     Purdue
19     Clemson
20     Texas
21     Auburn
22     Florida
23     Wake Forest
24     Kansas St.
25     Penn St.

The predictions page is updated for week 10. While the oddsmakers have Georgia Tech a 2 1/2 point favorite, my system says (with only 53% confidence) that Virginia Tech will win by 1. How does this work? Well, as inputs, I take all of the ratings matchups from last year for each team and compare to the final margin of victory. Then, I run a regression analysis to predict how these 2 teams match up based on their current ratings. Do I get reasonable results? Well, the straight up call, I get correct between 65% and 80% correct. I haven't compared against the Vegas spreads, but in past year, I do better more often than not.

And the home field advantage given by the statistics and my system? Just what the oddsmakers think. 3 points.

Other predictions?

#17 Virginia over #23 Wake Forest by 5.
#18 Purdue to lose at #25 Penn St. by 2.
#59 East Carolina by 8 at #92 Memphis.
#76 Navy by 4 at #98 Notre Dame (that would be fun to see).
#61 Maryland by 8 at # 88 North Carolina (but if you look at margin of victory/loss only, then Maryland by 1 - I call that "points ranking" and you can find the rank in the last column of the main page).
#52 Miami over #70 N.C. State by 11 (Miami by 9 with points only considered).

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

The College Football computer rankings say that the #3 South Florida Bulls will defeat the #54 Rutgers Scarlet Knights with 79% confidence. For those of you who don't know statistics, that means that Rutgers may very well pull the upset, though it is more likely than not that South Florida wins by about 9.

More predictions should be posted tomorrow, in the meantime, let the crickets chirp.

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

Through week 5, LSU stays on top, while Kentucky (?) cracks the Top 5.

1 Louisiana St.
2 Southern California
3 California
4 Kentucky
5 Arizona St.
6 Ohio St.
7 Cincinnati
8 Wisconsin
9 Boston College
10 Connecticut
11 Hawaii
12 Purdue
13 Oregon
14 Missouri
15 South Carolina
16 Oklahoma
17 West Virginia
18 Nebraska
19 Illinois
20 South Florida
21 Michigan St.
22 Florida
23 UCLA
24 Georgia
25 Virginia

The Big Ten remains the toughest conference, with Ohio St., Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan St. in the Top 25. The ACC remains the worst of the BCS conferences, placing only #9 Boston College and #25 Virginia among the nation's best.

Check out the full list, and see that North Carolina is still much better than North Carolina St.

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

Duke jumps ahead of North Carolina with its win over a Bowl Division Team (Northwestern). Don't worry that won't last long.

The Big 12 is currently the best conference, boasting 6 teams in the Top 25 - 4 of which are from the south division.

And just as all of the pundits have said, the ACC is the worst BCS conference, through 3 weeks of football.

 1     Louisiana St.
 2     Southern California
 3     Texas
 4     Boston College
 5     Ohio St.
 6     Florida
 7     Oklahoma
 8     Wisconsin
 9     West Virginia
10     California
11     Texas Tech
12     Oregon
13     Missouri
14     South Carolina
15     Clemson
16     Penn St.
17     Virginia Tech
18     Arizona St.
19     Purdue
20     Hawaii
21     Cincinnati
22     Alabama
23     Texas A&M
24     Kansas
25     Air Force

All 120 teams, including strength of schedule, average score for and against, record against the Top 25 and Top 50, and best team beaten are right here.

Just for kicks, it's fun to note that #63 Michigan got no bump for beating #82 Notre Dame - and both schools trail Ball State, Arkansas State and Navy in the rankings. Notre Dame even trails the Sun Belt Conference's powerhouse, Troy.

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football

And what goes better with beer than football. Now that both the NFL and college football are underway (how bout them Appalachain State Mountaineers), the waiting is over and you can cease your anticipatory drooling - and the avalanche of emails - for my very own Federal Review College Football Computer Rankings.

As always, historic ratings are used for the first few weeks of the season until the matrix completely connects all teams. I have also added a "Generic Champ Div" listing to show how everyone does against the former Division IA teams. And despite 2 wins, the Generic Champ Div is in last place (Michigan drops the most from 10 to 35). Here's the Top 25. The full list is here. You can find listings by conference and some other interesting information here.

1 Southern California
2 Louisiana St.
3 Wisconsin
4 Texas
5 Virginia Tech
6 Oklahoma
7 Auburn
8 Ohio St.
9 Georgia Tech
10 Georgia
11 Louisville
12 Boston College
13 West Virginia
14 California
15 Florida
16 Boise St.
17 Texas Tech
18 Clemson
19 South Carolina
20 Nebraska
21 Texas Christian
22 UCLA
23 Arizona St.
24 Navy
25 Missouri

Labels: Computer Rankings, Football